The press on Monday and for the rest of this week will be full of analysis on the respective triumphs of Kerry and Donegal. One factor that probably won't be raised/discussed is the importance of a break/a missed chance / rub of the green/ Off day for one player or even if you want to bake it down luck. Now I would agree that it isn't purely down to luck and that you have to make your own luck.
However in any knock out sport to win a trophy very often a team will play a number of games that come down to the wire and you need to come out the right side. That might need one cool head, one lucky break one referee call or one bad miss by one player on the opposing team. That does not mean one team is far superior than the other it merely means that it just happens to be your year(or Not).
That's why in knock out sport we very seldom see the same team retain a trophy unless they are so superior that the blast all opposition away consistently and the odds of getting the "Rub of the green' for 8/9 games spanning two competitions is much less likely. Winning a league is entirely different as you can afford slip-ups/offdays every 6 or 7 games
1) In the past 34 years AC Milan are the only side to win back to back Champions league
2) In the past 24 years Kerry are the only side to retain an All Ireland
3) In the past 24 years Arsenal and Chelsea have won back to back FA Cups.
In most All Ireland years - I can think of one moment or one player that caused destiny to change.
2014 - a)- Andy Moran missed a point with 5 mins to go in the first game
b) Connolly missed a goal chance v Donegal after 20 mins
2013 - O Connor missed a few easy frees when Mayo were on top
2012 - McFadden got a goal from a line ball v Kerry who lost by a point(Durcan saved a goal by his boot strings v Penrose)
2011 - Did Kevin Mc go for a point - Cluxton kept the head for a free
There are countless others - I can remember Declan O Sullivan hitting a crossbar v Tyrone or all the way back to 1992 when Cavan should have beaten Donegal in Breffni.
To sum it up - Sometimes your name is on it - and some years it just wasn't to be

ruanua (Donegal) - Posts: 4966 - 03/09/2014 09:38:47    1647289

Ce la vie runanua!

Good post by the way.

hurlingdub (Dublin) - Posts: 6978 - 03/09/2014 09:47:43    1647298

Mark Robins 1990, 3rd round of the FA cup springs to mind

NavyNBlue (Dublin) - Posts: 1357 - 03/09/2014 09:51:57    1647300

2011 - i think you're getting mixed up with the Kerry semi final of 2013. Kev Mac certainly went for goal in 2011. The number of steps he got away with is the "bit of luck" you are referring to . . .along with the "bit of luck" with regards countless soft frees and the added time.

cavanman47 (Cavan) - Posts: 5012 - 03/09/2014 10:52:54    1647342

Didnt big Pascal make a save to deny Kerry near the end of the 2008 final? As you say the list is endless. But thats sport and even life in general. You have no idea how subsequent events would be different should things have been different in that moment. You just have to play the game as you see it and deal with the actions of others as you see fit at the time. You cant change the past, only shape the future!

I will say that this is why I've been arguing for years that Ulster is so much harder to win. People would have said Dublin/Kerry/Mayo are better than anything in Ulster but the thing is there are more teams in Ulster who can catch you on any given day.

benjyyy (Donegal) - Posts: 1422 - 03/09/2014 10:56:53    1647345

2001 - AI semi final, Derry 5 points up with 15 mins to go have a free about 60 yards out from goal in front of the Hogan Stand. I think it was Paul McFlynn took it short, too short in fact. It didn't go 10 yards and the free was overturned and given to Galway. It was a turning point in that game and Galway went on to hammer Meath in the Final. Just one of those what if moments.

But then again, what if Johnny McGurk missed that last shot in the SF in '93.

jamesjoyce (Derry) - Posts: 126 - 03/09/2014 11:34:59    1647380

Very good teams take advantage of this luck bad teams dont.

Byanthon (Tyrone) - Posts: 1780 - 03/09/2014 13:21:43    1647458

in 2012 semi final i remember colm o neill hitting the crossbar against Donegal.dont think that would have made much of a difference to the outcome of that game..but i suppose donegal were just destined to win sam that year

pidge (Cork) - Posts: 543 - 03/09/2014 13:44:57    1647481

Sure if we had a bit a luck we would have about 50 all irelands by now.
37 will do for now i guess

ky4sam2014 (Kerry) - Posts: 32 - 03/09/2014 13:50:42    1647488

Byanthon
County: Tyrone
Posts: 938

1647458
Very good teams take advantage of this luck bad teams dont.
________

Absoluteness.

jimbodub (Dublin) - Posts: 20600 - 03/09/2014 14:06:12    1647495

I agree that the KO brings more of a random/ lucky element. However, round robin has too many dead pairings.

The second chance AI structure, for all its faults, may be the sweet spot in between.

omahant (USA) - Posts: 2584 - 07/09/2014 17:48:25    1649155

Such is life !! :)

waynoI (Dublin) - Posts: 13650 - 07/09/2014 18:12:24    1649177