As we prepare for a relatively subdued August weekend by football standards (we'd normally be gearing up for a weekend four quarter-finals at this time), Dublin currently stand as overwhelming favourites at 4/9. While I agree that Dublin are a brilliant team, and the best in the country, I find this price to be, quite frankly, ridiculous.

Dublin have won two of the last three All-Irelands. They rode their luck both times, but all champions tend to do at some point. But once you're crowned champions, unless you're a surprise winner like Armagh in 2002, this luck tends to be forgotten about. When you win the All-Ireland, people tend to overlook any failings or near mishaps you had along the way. This certainly doesn't apply solely to Dublin.

Donegal were branded by some as unbeatable after their 2012 win. While Donegal deserved their title, and were particularly excellent against Cork in the semi-final, it was overlooked that they rode their luck. They deserved to win against Kerry, but a wild goal in the opening minutes certainly helped matters, and it could all have been very different had it not been for that. Against Mayo, it was also overlooked that Mayo were the better team for sixty minutes. There's nothing wrong with that, because most champions have these moments along the way. When Donegal beat Tyrone in Ulster last year, many couldn't imagine them being beaten. But they were annihilated by Mayo, and well beaten by Monaghan. Suddenly everyone turned on them, and made them out to be worse than they are. They are back this year, and going nicely.

If Mayo had won last year, and let's not forget that the supposedly far superior Dublin team only beat a middling Mayo performance by a point, they would have been built up to the high heavens. They won all their games up to that by huge margins after all. But it was Dublin in who won it. Dublin could very easily have been beaten by Kerry as well in the semi-final. What would have happened if either of those games had gone against Dublin? They wouldn't be 4/9 for the All-Ireland! Kerry have had (legitimate) questions asked of their performance against Cork, as Cork were awful. But were Meath not even more awful in the Leinster final? I think they were. And they were always likely to be, because I thought their game against Kildare felt a bit lightweight.

Could anybody stop Kerry after back to back titles in 2007? Many thought not. Many were wrong, as it was the same old story against Tyrone the year after. Tyrone were placed on a pedestal of being far ahead of the pack after 2008. Against Cork in 2009, they were roundly battered. Cork themselves were acknowledged to have rode their luck in 2010, but many people felt that they had their monkey off the back, and would rake in titles (this really was thought). It never happened.

Sometimes we look back with greater wisdom and kid ourselves into thinking these teams were never placed as high up as they were. Or shouldn't have been. But that's hindsight for you. I remember being told of Dublin's All-Ireland winning team of 1977. They were billed in a similar manner to the present bunch. Not only were they beaten the year after, but it was actually Kerry who went on to dominate for many years. There are many examples of this cloak of invincibility being thrown around in many sports.

Dublin are a brilliant team. I think they are the best in the country, and worthy favourites. I also love their brand of football, Dublin and Kerry have always excited me more than any other teams, but in recent years Dublin had lacked steel. Not now. That said, don't be surprised if we look back in amazement at how we placed them as 4/9 favourites for the 2014 Championship.

Treaty_Exile (Limerick) - Posts: 386 - 02/08/2014 14:44:20    1629847

Treaty was Armagh winning the All Ireland in 2002 really a suprise? The three years in a row before that who ever had beaten them went on to win Sam. Meath in 1999 and Kerry in 2000 had beaten them in the semies of the All Ireland and Galway beat them in 2001 in the qualifers. The only suprise is they did not win more All Irelands.

OLLIE (Louth) - Posts: 12224 - 02/08/2014 15:12:57    1629856

Ollie, I think it was a surprise at the time. They were not among the favourites, that's for sure. Not a shock, but a surprise. They were rated 20/1 to win it again in 2003. They certainly proved to people they were a lot better than that, and I agree that they probably should have won it again. They were a very good team.

Treaty_Exile (Limerick) - Posts: 386 - 02/08/2014 15:25:14    1629864

But that's a debate for a different thread to be honest!

Treaty_Exile (Limerick) - Posts: 386 - 02/08/2014 15:25:46    1629866

Treaty was Armagh winning the All Ireland in 2002 really a suprise? The three years in a row before that who ever had beaten them went on to win Sam. Meath in 1999 and Kerry in 2000 had beaten them in the semies of the All Ireland and Galway beat them in 2001 in the qualifers. The only suprise is they did not win more All Irelands.

OLLIE (Louth) - Posts: 12224 - 02/08/2014 15:34:34    1629872

Nice post Treaty.Well written.

cuederocket (Dublin) - Posts: 5084 - 02/08/2014 15:40:54    1629876

Just another thread about Dublin!....Knew that from the title and didnt even read the opening post!!!

YAWN!

Regards,

Snufalufagus....Laochra Gael

Snufalufagus (Dublin) - Posts: 8100 - 02/08/2014 15:56:07    1629882

Dublin poster presumes article only partly written about Dublin is all about Dublin - now there's a shock ;)

Treaty_Exile (Limerick) - Posts: 386 - 02/08/2014 16:24:10    1629892

Treaty_Exile
County: Limerick
Posts: 280

1629864 Ollie, I think it was a surprise at the time. They were not among the favourites, that's for sure. Not a shock, but a surprise. They were rated 20/1 to win it again in 2003. They certainly proved to people they were a lot better than that, and I agree that they probably should have won it again. They were a very good team.

No surprise here. Not favourites by any means but they'd been knocking on the door for a few years.

Should have won more.

Samsforthehills (Donegal) - Posts: 1070 - 02/08/2014 16:43:45    1629904

They were rated 20/1 to win it again in 2003

Jeez I find that really hard to believe. Was it after they were beaten by Monaghan?

MichaelO (Tyrone) - Posts: 820 - 02/08/2014 16:59:55    1629913

Armagh winning was not a surprise - no way to that. The whole post is based on hypothetical reading . It's like saying if we cross the road here then we won't get hit by a car etc. This logic could be applied to everything we do . If Germany hadn't scored seven goals against Brazil then they would of lost !

TheRightStuff (Donegal) - Posts: 1688 - 02/08/2014 17:03:50    1629915

Therightstuff- are you comparing a team scoring seven goals to the little things that could have gone one way or another? Poor argument. I'm not diminishing any teams achievements based on what might have been, because nearly all teams get lucky breaks or win games that they could have lost on the way to winning a title. What I am saying is that they should not be ignored when evaluating a team that are dubbed as overwhelming favourites. Are Dublin justified favourites? Of course! Are they justified 4/9 favourites? No.

Treaty_Exile (Limerick) - Posts: 386 - 02/08/2014 17:21:02    1629922

When I wrote a thread a few weeks ago about Ulster football, I seemed to remember a Donegal poster showing up on nearly every page to hae a go at me. Out of curiosity, I just had a look at it again to see if my hunch was right. Lo and behold, TheRightStuff is back! Different thread, still moaning about me hahaha

Treaty_Exile (Limerick) - Posts: 386 - 02/08/2014 17:37:39    1629929

Dublin are an excellent team and are rightly regarded as strong favourites for the all-Ireland but they could definitely be beaten. In 2011 many people were raving about the Dublin minors as being the best team ever in that grade but Tipp beat them in the final. There was an awful lot of nonsense written about Donegal after the 2012 final with many people predicting they were absolute certainties to win again in 2013. People see what they want to see. Mayo's absolute demolition of Donegal last year was one of the most incredible performances I have ever seen by any team but they got nowhere near the amount of credit for it that Dublin are getting this year for hammering mediocre opposition.

Gaillimh_Abu (Galway) - Posts: 996 - 02/08/2014 17:50:08    1629937

Gaillimh_Abu
County: Galway
Posts: 459

1629937
Dublin are an excellent team and are rightly regarded as strong favourites for the all-Ireland but they could definitely be beaten. In 2011 many people were raving about the Dublin minors as being the best team ever in that grade but Tipp beat them in the final. There was an awful lot of nonsense written about Donegal after the 2012 final with many people predicting they were absolute certainties to win again in 2013. People see what they want to see. Mayo's absolute demolition of Donegal last year was one of the most incredible performances I have ever seen by any team but they got nowhere near the amount of credit for it that Dublin are getting this year for hammering mediocre opposition.

And there's my point, good post Gaillimh_Abu. Doengal deserved to win the All-Ireland in 2012. They did not deserve to be labelled as unbeatable, as quite a few claimed they were, and people are quick to forget but they were strong favourites in the eyes of many last year. Now Dublin are even stronger favourites, despite the fact that they haven't played a good team yet in the championship this year, and could have easily been beaten by Kerry and Mayo last year. They won those games, because they're a great team, and are justified as favourites. But 4/9? That's a crazy, crazy price. They are not as far ahead of the opposition as people are having us believe, just as Donegal and other teams in the past weren't.

Treaty_Exile (Limerick) - Posts: 386 - 02/08/2014 18:02:53    1629941

On the point of Armagh - it was indeed considered a surprise when they won in 2002. I thought they were being underrated, even when they won it they weren't being given the credit they deserved. They proved their worth in being one of the major teams for a few years thereafter, and I too am surprised they never won a second All-Ireland.

But this thread is not about that Armagh team.

Treaty_Exile (Limerick) - Posts: 386 - 02/08/2014 20:56:55    1630139

Odds aren't just based on form they are also a product of the amounts being bet. Dublins bigger population will ensure more money is being placed on them.
Some Donegal pundits were predicting that Donegal wouldn't be beaten for 5 years back in 2012. Now a few pundits are predicting a five in a row for Dublin.

tirawleybaron (Mayo) - Posts: 1105 - 02/08/2014 21:18:48    1630174

It's nothing personal Treaty , when one starts a thread then they should be analysed as they have left it open. You only like people's comments because they agree , that ain't being objective .
It is the bookies who have Dublin placed at 4/9 or somewhere close . They are not always correct however their estimations and mathematics is always spot on . Let's go with your argument so and say Mayo won Sam in 2013. As they have not won it since 1951, I would imagine the celebrations would be insane . They would like Donegal , the year before have an enormous demand on them. Like ourselves , they would have a massive population living in UK, USA etc. They wouldn't get to chill out until January at the earliest. Chances are they would start of the season as fav or 2nd favs- price perhaps at 5/2 or 2/1. Dublin who have lost the 2013 final narrowly are not a bad side because they lost it would be gunning for the title . They would still be fav or 2nd favs. As we know , they have already won the 2014 league so their price would drop big time , they subsequently blitz all before them in Leinster as they win it with ease. If all of that happened , Dublin at WORST would be 4/7ish so regardless of last year or the year before , Dublin would be favourites as they have been superb this year.

PS : good luck in the hurling !

TheRightStuff (Donegal) - Posts: 1688 - 03/08/2014 10:02:33    1630332

TheRightStuff
County: Donegal
Posts: 389

1630332
It's nothing personal Treaty , when one starts a thread then they should be analysed as they have left it open. You only like people's comments because they agree , that ain't being objective .
It is the bookies who have Dublin placed at 4/9 or somewhere close . They are not always correct however their estimations and mathematics is always spot on . Let's go with your argument so and say Mayo won Sam in 2013. As they have not won it since 1951, I would imagine the celebrations would be insane . They would like Donegal , the year before have an enormous demand on them. Like ourselves , they would have a massive population living in UK, USA etc. They wouldn't get to chill out until January at the earliest. Chances are they would start of the season as fav or 2nd favs- price perhaps at 5/2 or 2/1. Dublin who have lost the 2013 final narrowly are not a bad side because they lost it would be gunning for the title . They would still be fav or 2nd favs. As we know , they have already won the 2014 league so their price would drop big time , they subsequently blitz all before them in Leinster as they win it with ease. If all of that happened , Dublin at WORST would be 4/7ish so regardless of last year or the year before , Dublin would be favourites as they have been superb this year.

TheRightStuff, you've read me wrong buddy! I was only trying to wind you up, I couldn't give a stuff about people agreeing or disagreeing, I can take criticism by the bucket.

I know what you're saying. I don't disagree that Dublin should be favourites, of course they should, and they would still be favourites even if they had lost last year. You're right in saying that, and I know that the 4/9 price has a lot to do with the volume of money put down on a team. Kildare were unrealistically hot favourites for the 1998 final because it's the betting capital of Ireland you could say, that had it's influence for sure! With the volume of people in Dublin, that is always going to drag the price down (and they're a confident bunch, so I've no doubt they'd have no problem backing themselves).

Getting away from the 4/9 thing, I think there has been a lot of hysteria and an attitude from the media that it's all over bar the shouting. THAT'S what's getting in my craw, and I'm trying to point out that all this has actually happened before, even happened recently. Champions are often perceived to be better than they are, and their faults tend to be overlooked. Dublin are, of course, an EXCELLENT football team, and they have looked well this year, you can only beat what's put in front of you. But should we judge them on how they mauled very average teams like Meath, Laois or Wexford? Or should we look at how they played against the likes of Kerry and Mayo in the championship last year? For me, it's the latter every time. Dublin won those games, which is why they're justified favourites, but they could have very easily lost either of them. That's why I firmly believe they are not as far ahead of the pack as people would have you believe. And I've seen this happen many times before, it just tends to be magnified with Dublin because they are the big ticket in the GAA.

Treaty_Exile (Limerick) - Posts: 386 - 03/08/2014 11:57:36    1630404

Fair play to Donegal, magnificent performance. I did NOT see that coming, but it was terrific. Fair play to them. As for Dublin, again, no team is invincible, as I suspected Dublin weren't.

Treaty_Exile (Limerick) - Posts: 386 - 31/08/2014 18:37:28    1645419