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Qualifier Rd 1.5 - for a level playing field ?

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'Most likely' big match pairings like yoh proposed - or 'guaranteed' big match pairings via the Champs Playoff Rd ?

omahant (USA) - Posts: 2598 - 15/10/2016 16:29:46    1926474

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Comare the Existing Structure v My Treble Chance - In a perfect word, all 32 counties would be evenly matched, all with 1/32 chance of claiming Sam - As it is, or could be -
Existing Prov SF 16 has 4 Prov Champs enter AI QFs for 4 x 1/8 of AI Champs; 4 enter Qual Rd 4 (4 x 1/16 Champ); 8 enter Rd 2 (8/64l.
Total is half + quarter + eighth = 7/8 (or an even 7/32 per Prov, unfair given disparate Prov quantities).
Existing 1st Qual Rd 16 with each team having a miniscule 1/128 chance (7 wins required) for a total 16/128 (remaining 1/8, punative for Lein/Uls with 12 of the 16 counties)
My Treble Chance's Prov SF 16 has 2 to AI QFs (2/8); 2 to Rd 3 (2/16); 4 to Rd 2 (4/32); and 8 to Rd 1.5 (8/64) for a
Total of quarter + eighth three times = 5/8.
Treble Chance's 1st Qual Rd 1 has 2 chances to make Rd 2 is 16 x (1 minus quarter) and need to win Rds 2, 3 and AI Series (1/32) for a
Total of 12/32 = 3/8.
To test fiarness of my Treble Chance - Front Door of 5/8 = 20/32 is allocated half to Lein/Uls 10/32; while Lein/Uls gets 12/16 proportion of the 3/8 above for an additional 9/32 Lein/Uls has 19/32 chance near 20/32 county proportion.

omahant (USA) - Posts: 2598 - 15/10/2016 17:03:14    1926478

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It wouldn't be most likely.

8 teams left. Pick the teams who haven't played division 1 opposition or only 2 games in their province. Play them against each other. This is not a random system. It is controlled and fair.

Donegalman (None) - Posts: 3830 - 15/10/2016 17:18:36    1926479

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Replying To Donegalman:  "Seed the quarter finals. Pair teams who have avoided division 1 opposition or played only 2 games. This would most likely pair Kerry, mayo or Dublin together in a quarter giving them the much needed big game practice which they are crying out for. There will be nor should there be any need for change if this happened."
It's not really fair either. Donegal playing Tyrone get a second chance if they meet in Ulster.

Kerry v Mayo in a QF the loser is out. There's a big difference also in drawing Cavan/Roscommon as your division 1 team compared to Kerry/Dublin.

Also I think a new system shouldn't just be about fairness.

Needs to be fair
Needs to be something people what to watch and players want to play in
Needs to be a simple season
Needs to have teams schedules more concrete at from the start of the season.

The qualifiers were an improvement on the old system, I think they've had their day. They pretty much don't meet any of the criteria above.

The Leinster championship is a dud right now and it accounts for 10 of the 28 provincial games.

A teams draw is pretty much over when they are due to meet Dublin. At least with the group stage I've outlined there is much less luck of the draw as to who reaches the final. Even if you get drawn against Dublin in the group stage you'll then avoid them until the final.

I think you run the provincial series in that way and then have an All Ireland series with 8 teams qualifying for the group stage, you have a fair system with the top teams playing one another but also still get games for the players and fans of weaker teams to have an interest in.

Whammo86 (Antrim) - Posts: 4226 - 15/10/2016 17:34:37    1926482

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It wouldn't be unfair when you factor in the attrition of a longer season for other teams. Also think about mental preperation for playing div 1 opposition at the provincial level. Yes there is a difference between top 4 div 1 and bottom division 1 but I dont see this as being a reason or excuse for teams to complain at quarter final level. If you are good enough to win Sam the road shouldn't matter is a mantra we have all heard. I wonder would we hear it as often if this system were to be tried.

If we are in agreement about the mantra, then this is about principle rather than advantage. If we disagree about the mantra then teams are good enough to win the all Ireland 'under certain conditions' rather than no matter what.

Donegalman (None) - Posts: 3830 - 16/10/2016 15:07:18    1926629

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I think the Qualifiers have gone stale but could be exciting with some reform.
Strong teams have attractive national rivals - e.g. Kerry v Cork, v Dublin, v Donegal etc.
Weakest teams are better off playing neighbours for bragging rights- Carlow v Laois, is probably more appealing to those fans, than v Cavan. So the Qual Rds should be designed as such - Make Rd 1 regional - Northern 8 and Southern 8; Seed Rds 2 and 3 to have the best go head-to-head at the business end of the season.

omahant (USA) - Posts: 2598 - 16/10/2016 15:57:36    1926637

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Replying To GaryMc82:  "I suggested on a previous thread a few months back, that there should only be a 2 week gap between Inter-county games, which would help compact the Provincial & All Ireland Championships. This would free up more space for Club League and Championship games, maybe allow a more concrete Club schedule to be put in place. Scrap the National league Semi finals and play league matches over 8 consecutive weeks.

Inter-County Season
Pre-Season Tournament 3-5 games - Play over 3 weeks.
National League 7-8 games - Play over 8 weeks.
Provincial Championships 3-4 games - Play over 6-8 weeks.
All Ireland Series 3 games - Play over 6 weeks.
TOTAL = 23 - 25 Weeks of County Games.

Club Championship
On average 6 or 7 games for a Senior Club Championship - Play over 12 - 14 weeks,

Season length = 35 - 39 weeks, with Club league matches and of course Sigerson Cup to be considered. That's a mental season for somebody who plays for both a club and County that goes the distance. Personally I would scrap the National League in it's current form, It takes up a large chunk of the Calendar."
Thx Gary82 - Also, for interesting pairings, I feel strong teams have attractive opponents both locally and nationally, while the weakest teams have better rivals only locally. As such, I would have a mix of draw formats, with no repeat pairings, where necessary -
16-team Qual Rd 1 (Regional) - Northern 8, Southern 8;
16-team Qual Rd 1.5 (Seeded) - 8 higher NFL-ranked are Away Seeds (as opposed to seeding the 8 Prov SF losers);
20-team Rd 2 (Open Draw) - mouthwatering;
12-team Rd 3 (Seeded) - 6 lowest NFL-Ranked from Rd 2 are Drawn Away;
8-team AI QFs (Seeded) - 4 lowest NFL- Ranked from Rd 3 are either, Drawn Away at the Provs, or Kept Apart at Croke Park.

omahant (USA) - Posts: 2598 - 19/10/2016 03:00:06    1927434

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Replying To Donegalman:  "Sounds something like legendzxix would write ;)"
There are a few of us wired the same - just varying degree of madness ! :)

omahant (USA) - Posts: 2598 - 19/10/2016 03:09:18    1927438

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I still think the JMcG proposal was a good one, you run the provincial championship quickly and they are over by the end of June, then depending on results and league positions you divide the counties into a tier 1 and tier 2 (Tommy murphy cup but it means something). The better you do in the league and provincial championship the higher your seeding in the last 16 draw.

Any proposal is limited because the provincial championships won't be disappearing any time soon, so you have to incorporate it. What is clear is that everyone is fed up with the current format.

Green_Gold (Donegal) - Posts: 1874 - 19/10/2016 11:39:39    1927508

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Replying To Green_Gold:  "I still think the JMcG proposal was a good one, you run the provincial championship quickly and they are over by the end of June, then depending on results and league positions you divide the counties into a tier 1 and tier 2 (Tommy murphy cup but it means something). The better you do in the league and provincial championship the higher your seeding in the last 16 draw.

Any proposal is limited because the provincial championships won't be disappearing any time soon, so you have to incorporate it. What is clear is that everyone is fed up with the current format."
Didn't really like the JMcG. I think B championships are just a bad idea.

Something that could work along the same lines is to seed the AI by a mix of league and provincial championships.

8 A seeds include 4 provincial champions plus next 4 best from league
8 B seeds including any provincial finalists not A seeds, then the rest by provincial rank
16 C seeds the lowest rated teams not to reach their provincial final.

Round 1 16 C seeds play off
Round 2 8 B seeds play 8 round 1 winners
Round 3 8 A seeds play 8 round 2 winners

QFs draw is predetermined by League placing

Provincial champions seeded on one side 1-4 based on league placing. Non provincial champions seeded on other side based on league placing.

Provincial champion 1 v non provincial champion 4
Provincial champion 2 v non provincial champion 3
Provincial champion 3 v non provincial champion 2
Provincial champion 4 v non provincial champion 1

Semi Finals also seeded so that best 2 provincial champions can't meet and best provincial champion can't play the best non provincial champion.

Whammo86 (Antrim) - Posts: 4226 - 19/10/2016 13:48:14    1927577

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Replying To Whammo86:  "Didn't really like the JMcG. I think B championships are just a bad idea.

Something that could work along the same lines is to seed the AI by a mix of league and provincial championships.

8 A seeds include 4 provincial champions plus next 4 best from league
8 B seeds including any provincial finalists not A seeds, then the rest by provincial rank
16 C seeds the lowest rated teams not to reach their provincial final.

Round 1 16 C seeds play off
Round 2 8 B seeds play 8 round 1 winners
Round 3 8 A seeds play 8 round 2 winners

QFs draw is predetermined by League placing

Provincial champions seeded on one side 1-4 based on league placing. Non provincial champions seeded on other side based on league placing.

Provincial champion 1 v non provincial champion 4
Provincial champion 2 v non provincial champion 3
Provincial champion 3 v non provincial champion 2
Provincial champion 4 v non provincial champion 1

Semi Finals also seeded so that best 2 provincial champions can't meet and best provincial champion can't play the best non provincial champion."
My Treble Chance is like putting 2 of your A seeds in Rd 4 (AI QFs) and 4 Prov Final losers in Rd 2.
2 Prov Champs Playoff Rd losers in Rd 3 await 10 Rd 2 winners. Of course, you scrap the 3rd chance (Rd 1.5) as well.

omahant (USA) - Posts: 2598 - 22/10/2016 03:40:43    1928277

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Replying To GaryMc82:  "By keeping the Prov Championships intact, their unfairness can be overcome -

After pLaying the existing format to and after Prov SF 16 and 1st Rd Qual Rd 16,
all 16 losers enter Qual Rd 1.5, which is played in parallel with the Prov Finals.

Then, 20-team Rd 2 consists of 4 Prov Final losers and 16 winners from Rds 1 or 1.5.

The 4 Prov Champs playoff - 2 winners to the AI QFs - 2 losers to 12-team Rd 3.

Finally, 6 Rd 3 winners join 2 unbeaten Prov Champs in the AI QFs.

If the Muns and Conn SFs are two-legged, all counties are guaranteed a 3-match minimum.
omahant (USA) - Posts:830 - 08/10/2016 19:18:10 1

This proposal has serious merit, maybe the other posters didn't read it carefully, as they seemed overly dismissive.

I get what omahant strived to achieve here, basically a way to keeping the Provincial Championships in their current form, reducing the number of Qualifier matches, and guaranteeing all County teams 3 Championship games.

Also by having the 4 Provinicial Champions face off prior to the All Ireland Quarter Final, we should be getting a greater number of high profile matches earlier in the Championship.

This proposal would give the GAA a solution to some of its biggest Championship structure problems, this is probably the best structure I have seen yet. Fair play omahant."
Isn't it true what they say - beauty IS IN the eye of the beholder ?
Or as your fellow posters might say - new glasses needed :)

omahant (USA) - Posts: 2598 - 27/10/2016 03:01:53    1929380

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Isn't it true what they say - beauty IS IN the eye of the beholder ?
Or as your fellow posters might say - new glasses needed :)
omahant (USA) - Posts:865 - 27/10/2016 03:01:53

I think some of the posters may have dismissed your proposal without analysing it properly, I'm not saying they did so out of ignorance, more they may have simply misinterpreted your structure.

When setting out any proposal, we should look at our goal's and set clear objectives for what we are hoping to achieve.

GaryMc82 (Derry) - Posts: 3017 - 02/11/2016 18:46:53    1930989

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Replying To Donegalman:  "Sounds something like legendzxix would write ;)"
People bang on about unfairness. There are options of fairness within current structures.

Regards Round 1.5:
Team A loses provincial quarter-final and wins Round 1 to enter Round 2.
Team B wins provincial quarter-final and loses provincial semi-final has to win Round 1.5 to enter Round 2.
Team C loses provincial quarter-final and loses Round 1 but still enters Round 1.5.

Tyrone and the 4 Regions wanted a champions round with the winners advancing to semi-finals and loses taking on 2 qualifiers in the quarter-finals.

The people the GAA want to pay in for qualifier games will lose track of a backdoor within the qualifiers. It'll be interesting to see if qualification for the suggested group stage can reinvigorate the qualifiers.

THE GAA SPEAKS:

'IT COULD POTENTIALLY TAKE NINE GAMES FOR AN ULSTER TEAM TO WIN AN ALL-IRELAND'

There is an imbalance in both the number of counties and in the relative strength of counties within provinces. We must accept, therefore, that more games are required to win in some provinces than in others. This is an unchangeable fact, so let's move on from it. In addition, the Association's members have made it clear that they wish to continue with the provincial system.
This proposal, however, is fair in that each of the eight counties that qualify for the group stage will compete against three other of the best teams in the country.

legendzxix (Kerry) - Posts: 7857 - 03/11/2016 23:20:27    1931379

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Replying To legendzxix:  "People bang on about unfairness. There are options of fairness within current structures.

Regards Round 1.5:
Team A loses provincial quarter-final and wins Round 1 to enter Round 2.
Team B wins provincial quarter-final and loses provincial semi-final has to win Round 1.5 to enter Round 2.
Team C loses provincial quarter-final and loses Round 1 but still enters Round 1.5.

Tyrone and the 4 Regions wanted a champions round with the winners advancing to semi-finals and loses taking on 2 qualifiers in the quarter-finals.

The people the GAA want to pay in for qualifier games will lose track of a backdoor within the qualifiers. It'll be interesting to see if qualification for the suggested group stage can reinvigorate the qualifiers.

THE GAA SPEAKS:

'IT COULD POTENTIALLY TAKE NINE GAMES FOR AN ULSTER TEAM TO WIN AN ALL-IRELAND'

There is an imbalance in both the number of counties and in the relative strength of counties within provinces. We must accept, therefore, that more games are required to win in some provinces than in others. This is an unchangeable fact, so let's move on from it. In addition, the Association's members have made it clear that they wish to continue with the provincial system.
This proposal, however, is fair in that each of the eight counties that qualify for the group stage will compete against three other of the best teams in the country."
Whilst I appreciate the GAA answered the question of fairness I'm not sure their answer is wholly satisfactory.

It is still a good bit easier to qualify for the last 8 in some provinces than others.

Once at the last 8 the new system is good in that teams won't really get handy draws to the semi.

There are things can be done by rejigging the qualifiers. I submitted a proposal for instance that had round 1 of the qualifiers the same. Round 2 feature 4 Connacht and Munster semi finalists. 12 teams total with round 1 winners joining
Round 3 with 4 Ulster and Leinster semi finalists and the Munster and Leinster finalists. 12 teams with the 6 round 2 winners
Round 4 Ulster and Leinster runners up plus round 3 winners making up 8 teams.

It evens up the average number of games needed to reach the last 8.

I don't think it's going further forward as it was deemed unfair of Munster Connacht finalists, with them going in earlier. Which was the whole point. I don't mind a provincial winner reaching the last 8 but It's ridiculous a team can win 1 game and be in the last 12.

Your 4 groups of 4, 8 qualifiers plus 8 teams reaching provincial finals I feel would be fine. Last 16 for Munster and Connacht finalists feels ok for me.

Whammo86 (Antrim) - Posts: 4226 - 04/11/2016 06:41:32    1931397

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Replying To Whammo86:  "Whilst I appreciate the GAA answered the question of fairness I'm not sure their answer is wholly satisfactory.

It is still a good bit easier to qualify for the last 8 in some provinces than others.

Once at the last 8 the new system is good in that teams won't really get handy draws to the semi.

There are things can be done by rejigging the qualifiers. I submitted a proposal for instance that had round 1 of the qualifiers the same. Round 2 feature 4 Connacht and Munster semi finalists. 12 teams total with round 1 winners joining
Round 3 with 4 Ulster and Leinster semi finalists and the Munster and Leinster finalists. 12 teams with the 6 round 2 winners
Round 4 Ulster and Leinster runners up plus round 3 winners making up 8 teams.

It evens up the average number of games needed to reach the last 8.

I don't think it's going further forward as it was deemed unfair of Munster Connacht finalists, with them going in earlier. Which was the whole point. I don't mind a provincial winner reaching the last 8 but It's ridiculous a team can win 1 game and be in the last 12.

Your 4 groups of 4, 8 qualifiers plus 8 teams reaching provincial finals I feel would be fine. Last 16 for Munster and Connacht finalists feels ok for me."
I believe your jigging addresses fairness, but the 8-team group stage does not.

The latter still has half the teams qualify from the lopsided provs.
Yours basically has 6 losers from Lein/Uls SFs and Muns/Conn enter Rd 3, the rest unchanged - very fair. If all 32 counties were evenly matched, the maths shows your adjustment is only slightly 'imperfect'.

omahant (USA) - Posts: 2598 - 04/11/2016 17:24:40    1931603

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Replying To legendzxix:  "People bang on about unfairness. There are options of fairness within current structures.

Regards Round 1.5:
Team A loses provincial quarter-final and wins Round 1 to enter Round 2.
Team B wins provincial quarter-final and loses provincial semi-final has to win Round 1.5 to enter Round 2.
Team C loses provincial quarter-final and loses Round 1 but still enters Round 1.5.

Tyrone and the 4 Regions wanted a champions round with the winners advancing to semi-finals and loses taking on 2 qualifiers in the quarter-finals.

The people the GAA want to pay in for qualifier games will lose track of a backdoor within the qualifiers. It'll be interesting to see if qualification for the suggested group stage can reinvigorate the qualifiers.

THE GAA SPEAKS:

'IT COULD POTENTIALLY TAKE NINE GAMES FOR AN ULSTER TEAM TO WIN AN ALL-IRELAND'

There is an imbalance in both the number of counties and in the relative strength of counties within provinces. We must accept, therefore, that more games are required to win in some provinces than in others. This is an unchangeable fact, so let's move on from it. In addition, the Association's members have made it clear that they wish to continue with the provincial system.
This proposal, however, is fair in that each of the eight counties that qualify for the group stage will compete against three other of the best teams in the country."
It's not clear if you find Rd 1.5 fair ?

After arriving at the current symmetric Prov SF 16 and 1st Rd Qual 16,
the AI Last 24 could consist of 16 winners (to Prov Finals or Qual Rd 2), with the 16 losers getting a 'common last chance' in Rd 1.5 (to determine the other 8 teams).

Therefore, there is less value in Prov QF results, as winners and losers alike are both left with two chances to make the Last 24, but that is what has to be done to put all Prov QF participants on a similar footing with Muns/Conn teams that don't play that Rd (receive QF byes).

In any event, there is still a front door advantage in that the double-chance is retained up to the AI QFs, but only to the AI Last 24 in the back door (KO thereafter).

If the Muns/Conn SFs are two-legged (say, aggregate scores do NOT count - match a piece leads to extra time the 2nd day - a hammering the 1st day does not kill the series), all 32 teams are guaranteed three matches; 8 Qual Rd 1 losers only get a 3rd chance; all need three wins to enter the AI QFs from Prov SF 16/1st Rd Qual 16; and all need an equal three wins after that to claim Sam.

As 3s are wild, I call my idea 'Treble Chance'.

omahant (USA) - Posts: 2598 - 04/11/2016 17:49:19    1931608

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32 teams enter the All-Ireland championship. That's excluding New York who do not participate in the qualifiers.

If people are unhappy about lopsided provincial championships, simply have half the number of teams from each province make the final 16 or seed qualifiers based on league placing.

There doesn't appear to be any appetite for anything like that however. The 2 groups of 4 seems to be the only show in town.

legendzxix (Kerry) - Posts: 7857 - 04/11/2016 22:26:15    1931707

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Yes, half of each Prov in a Last 16 would be fair too- if inter-prov pairings in the next rd cause provs to have representive other than a quarter of the Last 8, so be it - it remains fair.
Hers's a fundamental question relating to the existing structure and composition of the AI Last 24 -
Do you prefer 8 going out in Qual Rd 1 (mostly from Lein/Uls, who also endured a Prov QF or Prelim Rd defeat) and 8 winners join all Prov SF 16 (incl 4 Muns/Conn teams who have done nothing/ yet to play) OR -
8 Prov SF and 8 1st Qual Rd winners advance (to Prov Finals or 2nd Qual Rd) while the 16 losers get 'a common last chance' to determine the remaining 8 teams to advance and 8 to be eliminated ?
For me, it's clear - even with Prov QF wins and losses having less significance - it's the latter.
Lopsided Provs determine Prov Champs but the AI Last 24 is fair despite them.

omahant (USA) - Posts: 2598 - 05/11/2016 03:27:00    1931735

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Replying To legendzxix:  "32 teams enter the All-Ireland championship. That's excluding New York who do not participate in the qualifiers.

If people are unhappy about lopsided provincial championships, simply have half the number of teams from each province make the final 16 or seed qualifiers based on league placing.

There doesn't appear to be any appetite for anything like that however. The 2 groups of 4 seems to be the only show in town."
I don't think it will be the only show in town.

The GPA have stated they'll bring their own proposals by February.

Anyway if there is no other proposal I'd think this should be accepted. The big problem I had was the drawn out nature of the season. That has been fixed very well. Removal of replays is also essential.

If this turns out to be the only show in town, I hope it gets through and any remaining flaws can be sorted in future iterations.

Whammo86 (Antrim) - Posts: 4226 - 05/11/2016 08:46:04    1931751

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