National Forum

Brexit - GAA

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It's time to re-unite the Ireland, the transition from a Unionist to a Nationalist majority is inevitable, so it is time to start have a serious look at making this becoming a reality.

Listening to yer man Foster from the DUP yesterday, they are naturally hostile to suggestions of a Border Poll, as knowing the Unionist majority is slipping, they had hoped to eventually sway people of Nationalist background to the Unionist mindset by using political scare mongering on economic pitfalls and instability of leaving the UK.

However yesterday's decision in England has changed everything, and remaining part of the EU looks to be the more stable economic option. In the next 10-15 years, demo-graphical projections show people from Nationalist origins will outnumber people of Unionist origins, with previous economic arguments now evaporating, serious debate is now needed on a smooth transition to this eventuality. Demographic statistical trends back up my argument, we need to begin the process now for a seamless transition.

GaryMc82 (Derry) - Posts: 3017 - 25/06/2016 09:28:35    1871787

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Replying To SamOnErrigal:  "It won't affect the GAA in the Six counties. The G AA survived there in the toughest of times and will do. Also I am nearly sure they won't enforce the border again or set up custom posts
Is it not time now for a party to emerge to take the 26 counties out of Europe. ?? It might be one of the best things that could happen to Ireland."
It would be a disaster for the republic to leave the eu.

ros1 (Roscommon) - Posts: 1211 - 25/06/2016 09:46:16    1871790

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GaryMc. I'd love if you were right but are you not engaging in a large dose of wishful thinking there? The numbers game in itself isn't enough. When people from a nationalist background eventually outnumber people from a unionist background it won't in itself lead to a united Ireland. What did that recent survey of nationalist opinion show up? ....only something like a small majority of the northern nationalist population actually would vote for a united Ireland. There are a lot more "Castle nationalists" up there with you than you might think! A lot cited the NHS as a reason why they're happy as they are. Heck, if we in the 26 could have the NHS we would be very much lured by it too! Admittedly Brexit does change things, and if it leads to a Scottish exit from the UK even the Ulster Unionists will have to start questioning where their future lies.

PoolSturgeon (Galway) - Posts: 1904 - 25/06/2016 10:10:17    1871796

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I thought months ago that we would be in a situation we are now in, albeit I thought Wales would also have been remain with England population and vote pulling the rest of us out with them. While I said then that I thought Unionists or the DUP in particular could be putting the noose round their own necks as I believed that would be the catalyst in unifying our Island I was also fearful of the period in between if the vote went with Leave and I still am anxious to be honest over the uncertainty. Already the pound in my pocket doesn't go as far as it did on Wednesday and with talks of fuel prices increasing in the coming days and other increases in supermarkets etc then things that are already tight enough will become tighter. I suppose I was caught in the middle regarding my loyalties - my wiser economic head said Remain but my Nationalistic head said Leave as I could see this bringing my dream closer in my lifetime. But as I have a family then I had to go with my economic head in this case.

I did smile to myself though listening to conversations in work yesterday among those from the Unionist community - some were saying they were getting their Irish applications in ASAP and some were realising that the next step was a United Ireland. Then I got immense pleasure from seeing Arlene giving her interview and answering the questions on a border poll - I have seen her on television enough to know that was the face of a worried woman. It was the Arlene you see getting all defensive when cornered on the likes of the Nolan show for example. No matter how she tried to spin it the fact is they spearheaded the Leave campaign in the North and have gone against the wish of the majority. I do think we need a border poll but not sure if it is wise to rush it but give time for the dust to settle a bit.

Offside_Rule (Antrim) - Posts: 4058 - 25/06/2016 10:24:41    1871800

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As regards the 'Castle Nationalists', they exist only as long as England wants them to.

Once there is a majority from a Nationalist background will the people of England happily give them a few Billion a year? Considering they just voted out of the EU for that reason.

tyroneed (Tyrone) - Posts: 753 - 25/06/2016 10:55:15    1871805

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Replying To PoolSturgeon:  "Life goes on and life will go on. I think they should have voted to remain but although they voted to leave the fears stoked up about what a leave vote would mean were always over-hyped. It's funny to hear politicians today who 2 days ago were warning that a leave vote would be a catastrophy are now saying that some benefits from it will accrue to the Republic. The custom posts/ security checks on the island are not coming back in my opinion. Those checks are likely to be made at the ports and airports only. In my opinion life will continue much the same as before."
Of course there will be checks on the border. If not then the whole argument for leave goes out the window.

gotmilk (Fermanagh) - Posts: 4971 - 25/06/2016 10:57:11    1871807

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Replying To PoolSturgeon:  "GaryMc. I'd love if you were right but are you not engaging in a large dose of wishful thinking there? The numbers game in itself isn't enough. When people from a nationalist background eventually outnumber people from a unionist background it won't in itself lead to a united Ireland. What did that recent survey of nationalist opinion show up? ....only something like a small majority of the northern nationalist population actually would vote for a united Ireland. There are a lot more "Castle nationalists" up there with you than you might think! A lot cited the NHS as a reason why they're happy as they are. Heck, if we in the 26 could have the NHS we would be very much lured by it too! Admittedly Brexit does change things, and if it leads to a Scottish exit from the UK even the Ulster Unionists will have to start questioning where their future lies."
NHS is on the way out. After yesterday a lot of unionists have openly stated they would vote for a united IReland just to get back into the EU. It's close than you think.

gotmilk (Fermanagh) - Posts: 4971 - 25/06/2016 11:01:10    1871810

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There will be no border except at airports and and ports, this outcome will have zero affect on the GAA.
Lets be honest here, most people voted leave due to immigration concerns and those concerns do not extend outside mainland Britain. Those in Britain, and in power there, do not care in the slightest if the border is not controlled in the north, so long as the Irish sea exists. Once the vast amounts of EU money for the north dry up and Westminister has to spend even larger amounts of money than they already do on the north do you really think there will be an appetite to spend hundreds of millions to create and maintain a couple of hundred miles of a hard border in the part of the UK which does not affect them and quite frankly that they couldn't give a toss about?

Antifa (Donegal) - Posts: 143 - 25/06/2016 11:58:33    1871818

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Replying To Antifa:  "There will be no border except at airports and and ports, this outcome will have zero affect on the GAA.
Lets be honest here, most people voted leave due to immigration concerns and those concerns do not extend outside mainland Britain. Those in Britain, and in power there, do not care in the slightest if the border is not controlled in the north, so long as the Irish sea exists. Once the vast amounts of EU money for the north dry up and Westminister has to spend even larger amounts of money than they already do on the north do you really think there will be an appetite to spend hundreds of millions to create and maintain a couple of hundred miles of a hard border in the part of the UK which does not affect them and quite frankly that they couldn't give a toss about?"
Ive a feeling the border might be deemed a necessity by Brussels.

gotmilk (Fermanagh) - Posts: 4971 - 25/06/2016 12:32:48    1871830

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Replying To gotmilk:  "Of course there will be checks on the border. If not then the whole argument for leave goes out the window."
I don't see that coming back. Too much of an administrative problem. Far easier and more effective and cheaper to do checks at Larne and Belfast ports and at the airports. Of course this would go against the logic of a united kingdom but the English nationalists behind this exit weren't thinking about NI when advocating to leave. Don't think the Unionist "leave" voters considered the possibility either which will make it all the sweeter if it comes to pass!

PoolSturgeon (Galway) - Posts: 1904 - 25/06/2016 12:58:41    1871839

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Lads youse are looking at this from the UK point and those who were campaigning for Leave. They said there would be no change at the border. They said it would be a 2 year change over. Well, Europe who call the shots will say otherwise. Members are already calling for an immediate exit and are demanding Article 50 be enforced. They are going to come down hard on the UK to make an example of them and to try to maintain stability within the EU. Given all this I will be surprised if there are not border patrols.

Offside_Rule (Antrim) - Posts: 4058 - 25/06/2016 13:19:32    1871848

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Replying To PoolSturgeon:  "I don't see that coming back. Too much of an administrative problem. Far easier and more effective and cheaper to do checks at Larne and Belfast ports and at the airports. Of course this would go against the logic of a united kingdom but the English nationalists behind this exit weren't thinking about NI when advocating to leave. Don't think the Unionist "leave" voters considered the possibility either which will make it all the sweeter if it comes to pass!"
But there is an open border into the UK from the republic. The whole leave campaign was based on immigration into the country and closing a border, how can they then leave it's only land border open?
Also I would imagine that the EU will be pushing to close that border to stop desperate Brits looking to head to the EU in the Republic.

gotmilk (Fermanagh) - Posts: 4971 - 25/06/2016 13:20:10    1871849

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Replying To PoolSturgeon:  "GaryMc. I'd love if you were right but are you not engaging in a large dose of wishful thinking there? The numbers game in itself isn't enough. When people from a nationalist background eventually outnumber people from a unionist background it won't in itself lead to a united Ireland. What did that recent survey of nationalist opinion show up? ....only something like a small majority of the northern nationalist population actually would vote for a united Ireland. There are a lot more "Castle nationalists" up there with you than you might think! A lot cited the NHS as a reason why they're happy as they are. Heck, if we in the 26 could have the NHS we would be very much lured by it too! Admittedly Brexit does change things, and if it leads to a Scottish exit from the UK even the Ulster Unionists will have to start questioning where their future lies."
No, I'm too much of statistical analysis geek to partake in wishful thinking.

Those people from Nationalist/Catholic backgrounds here in the North who had expressed fear of breaking away from the Union, did so based on the fear of economic uncertainty and how that might impact their lifestyles or the opportunities for their children, rather than loyalty to the Crown. Now they face that very uncertainty, despite the majority of people in the North voting to remain part of the EU. Things have changed since yesterday.

Ultimately people will always come up with excuses why we shouldn't re-unite the Island, I even heard a southern person tell me the Republic couldn't afford to take on the North, as if they would be footing some kind of bill or something. The North has it's own economy, any withdrawal from the UK would mean the 6 counties bringing their share of the economy with them.

And the EU is desperate for something positive right now, as are the US. The world hasn't had this kind of thing since Germany re-united, an event that led to huge amounts of goodwill and investment in Germany from the US and Europe. I think a new united Ireland would flourish.

GaryMc82 (Derry) - Posts: 3017 - 25/06/2016 13:28:38    1871852

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Replying To GaryMc82:  "No, I'm too much of statistical analysis geek to partake in wishful thinking.

Those people from Nationalist/Catholic backgrounds here in the North who had expressed fear of breaking away from the Union, did so based on the fear of economic uncertainty and how that might impact their lifestyles or the opportunities for their children, rather than loyalty to the Crown. Now they face that very uncertainty, despite the majority of people in the North voting to remain part of the EU. Things have changed since yesterday.

Ultimately people will always come up with excuses why we shouldn't re-unite the Island, I even heard a southern person tell me the Republic couldn't afford to take on the North, as if they would be footing some kind of bill or something. The North has it's own economy, any withdrawal from the UK would mean the 6 counties bringing their share of the economy with them.

And the EU is desperate for something positive right now, as are the US. The world hasn't had this kind of thing since Germany re-united, an event that led to huge amounts of goodwill and investment in Germany from the US and Europe. I think a new united Ireland would flourish."
There would be a massive bill for the republic, the brits would gladly get rid of the north as the have to pay a fortune every year to the north. Would the people of the north like to have to pay 50 euro to see there doctor these are the questions you would have to ask.

ros1 (Roscommon) - Posts: 1211 - 25/06/2016 15:08:42    1871871

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There would be a massive bill for the republic, the brits would gladly get rid of the north as the have to pay a fortune every year to the north. Would the people of the north like to have to pay 50 euro to see there doctor these are the questions you would have to ask.
ROS1 (Roscommon) - Posts:484 - 25/06/2016 15:08:42

Incorrect, the Brits take the tax from the North every year, and then return a block grant for the Northern Executive to spend in different departments. The specific breakdown of what Northern Ireland costs and contributes is not fully disclosed. It is unlikely to be running at a loss these days, like was the case during the troubles when the local economy was weak. We must also consider that the south is heavily in debt, and merging the two would mean the North inheriting a share of the Republics debt. But the external investment generated by the mass global publicity of such a merger, would see that debt rapidly erode and the joint economy balance out and flourish.

Excessive health care costs and issues, are to do with poor management of the public health sector. This could be a chance to learn from mistakes of the past 30 years, restructure all public departments, and make them all more efficient. Perhaps manage the public sector in the same way the Private sector is run, and lessen the influence of unions.

GaryMc82 (Derry) - Posts: 3017 - 25/06/2016 16:51:37    1871888

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Replying To ROS1:  "There would be a massive bill for the republic, the brits would gladly get rid of the north as the have to pay a fortune every year to the north. Would the people of the north like to have to pay 50 euro to see there doctor these are the questions you would have to ask."
Don't agree with you. You would see another Ireland fund set up with American, EU and British slush fund thrown at it to ease the transition. It wouldn't "cost" the Republic anything in the long run. But the mentality on both sides of the border would need to change hugely for it to work. Obviously they'd have to divide parliament 50/50 between Belfast and Dublin for starters. But when I see Northern Ireland soccer players from a Catholic and presumably nationalist background singing "God Save the Queen" as much as their teammates from a unionist background, it makes me think it's a far fetched notion even in the long term.

PoolSturgeon (Galway) - Posts: 1904 - 25/06/2016 17:22:28    1871891

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The UK and Ireland have their own relationship in relation to "Open Borders", these arrangements pre-date the EU/EEC. There is not a snowballs chance in hell that there will be a "visible" border between the 6 counties and the republic. The EU is no position to start dictating to anyone what we should and should not be doing in relation to our borders look at the terrible mess they have created. Ireland/Northern Ireland and the UK are a unique area - two fingers is all that is required. In terms of the GAA Brexit has no effect it would have been worse if say the UK was a part of the Euro but they are not. The only issue is a vote on re-unification which as much as I'd love to see a United Ireland, not if it means a whole load of security issues.

arock (Dublin) - Posts: 4898 - 25/06/2016 17:30:44    1871894

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Replying To GaryMc82:  "There would be a massive bill for the republic, the brits would gladly get rid of the north as the have to pay a fortune every year to the north. Would the people of the north like to have to pay 50 euro to see there doctor these are the questions you would have to ask.
ROS1 (Roscommon) - Posts:484 - 25/06/2016 15:08:42

Incorrect, the Brits take the tax from the North every year, and then return a block grant for the Northern Executive to spend in different departments. The specific breakdown of what Northern Ireland costs and contributes is not fully disclosed. It is unlikely to be running at a loss these days, like was the case during the troubles when the local economy was weak. We must also consider that the south is heavily in debt, and merging the two would mean the North inheriting a share of the Republics debt. But the external investment generated by the mass global publicity of such a merger, would see that debt rapidly erode and the joint economy balance out and flourish.

Excessive health care costs and issues, are to do with poor management of the public health sector. This could be a chance to learn from mistakes of the past 30 years, restructure all public departments, and make them all more efficient. Perhaps manage the public sector in the same way the Private sector is run, and lessen the influence of unions."
That all sounds good in theory but I think the north gets 10 billion pounds a year from Westminster alot of money. Tthere is far more people employments in the public service in the north then either the republic or in britian then you would have the massive security costs when the uvf etc start off there old tricks the would not take this lightly. Trying to tell the unions to stop causing problems is easier said then done and will probably not happen.

ros1 (Roscommon) - Posts: 1211 - 25/06/2016 18:36:28    1871904

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Replying To PoolSturgeon:  "Don't agree with you. You would see another Ireland fund set up with American, EU and British slush fund thrown at it to ease the transition. It wouldn't "cost" the Republic anything in the long run. But the mentality on both sides of the border would need to change hugely for it to work. Obviously they'd have to divide parliament 50/50 between Belfast and Dublin for starters. But when I see Northern Ireland soccer players from a Catholic and presumably nationalist background singing "God Save the Queen" as much as their teammates from a unionist background, it makes me think it's a far fetched notion even in the long term."
Which Norn Iron Catholic you talking about Pool Sturgeon out of interest as I watched the anthems.

Offside_Rule (Antrim) - Posts: 4058 - 25/06/2016 18:46:09    1871907

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Oh maybe I am mistaken so Offside. I don't know the NI players but all of them except the goalkeeper seemed to be singing. Just assumed there would be at least 3 or 4 from a nationalist background in the starting line up. Very happy if I am wrong!

PoolSturgeon (Galway) - Posts: 1904 - 25/06/2016 19:43:04    1871936

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