Soma

That's really simple to explain in a few quick points.
Kerry Cork is always virtually a 50/50 game,

Cork should have beaten us last year

and finally they sandbagged the league in order to finally win in Killarney in July after a lot of close shaves in the last decade.

KYTitletown (Kerry) - Posts: 816 - 14/04/2016 15:56:34    1845619

The Master,

Bit slow on the uptake or what?

Condorman (Dublin) - Posts: 983 - 14/04/2016 16:01:55    1845622

I understand all that KYtitle. Only for an outstanding last minute point last year Cork would be current Munster champions. Mayo have to beat old foes Galway and Roscommon, who finished 2nd in the league, yet we have to listen to all this talk of them having no serious game til August. If that is the case it's mainly due to Kerry and Mayo being 2 outstanding teams. It's a pity the debate on here couldn't be a bit more sensible rather than people pushing agendas.

Soma (UK) - Posts: 2630 - 14/04/2016 17:23:23    1845663

No. I was just hoping against hope that you hadn't resorted to the lowest possible form of response on HS;

spelling mistake references.



That showed me....

TheMaster (Mayo) - Posts: 16187 - 14/04/2016 18:07:52    1845682

The bookies odds say it is more likely that 1 or both of Mayo and Kerry will be beaten in their provincial championships than it is that they will both win their province. Yet on here accepted wisdom is that both will cruise through without being challenged. It looks like alot of posters have the chance to make some serious money this summer!

Soma (UK) - Posts:1368

This really has no logic my man.

The bookies are saying that as a single bet , both are raging hot favorites to win their province - both are basically not worth a punt because they odds against ( unless you have lots of money) . You have doubled them up which multiplies the price so obviously it will be greater than the singular bet .

If your logic is to be applied :

Kerry / Mayo double is 5/4

Cork / Roscommon : 10/1
Cork / Galway : 24/1ish

Tipperary / Roscommon : around 75/1

These are just a few doubles you could do. As you can see , a professional gamblers money would be on a Mayo/ Kerry double. Of course it is odds against as it is doubled up. Of course it might not come in but that is sport.

Who is saying Mayo are no good. In my thread on the AI , I have them down to reach the final this year and I think they will beat us somewhere along the way.

Do i think they will be beaten in Connacht ? No is my answer as Mayo are a fine side and much better than the rest.

There are two simple reasons why Mayo have won 5 in a row : they are an excellent team and secondly they have not had much to deal with as the other sides have been by and large really poor. Would they win Ulster championships ; I would say without a doubt. Would they win 4/5 in a row : not a chance IMO as no side has done so in 50/60 years and that includes numerous teams with Celtic crosses on board ie Tyrone and Down.

Mayo will be very close this year . I saw enough of them in the league to suggest so. They are a seasoned team. If Keith Higgins plays at 11 with O'Shea , Regan and COC , I think this could be their year.

TheRightStuff (Donegal) - Posts: 1688 - 14/04/2016 18:59:45    1845734

Keith isn't an 11.

GreenandRed (Mayo) - Posts: 7369 - 14/04/2016 19:36:59    1845747

I don't see where the logic fail is there TRS. Yes they are both odds on favourites but the bookies odds also say that the odds are that at the end of the championship 1 or both of Kerry and Mayo will have been beaten in their province. You seem absolutely convinced that they won't be beaten so maybe take the piggybank down to your nearest bookies fast!?Obviously multipliers increase the odds as you are backing on more than one event but for example, in 'ultra competitive ulster' TM, you can do accumulators on 1st round games that are still odds on (obviously these are individual games rather than provincial championships).

Soma (UK) - Posts: 2630 - 14/04/2016 19:49:28    1845752

I think Higgins may well be in a freer role this year. That seemed to be what they were trying with him against Donegal before he got injured and if he hadn't been injured that day, they probably would have won.

ZeitChrist (UK) - Posts: 154 - 14/04/2016 20:17:51    1845762

I don't see where the logic fail is there TRS. Yes they are both odds on favourites but the bookies odds also say that the odds are that at the end of the championship 1 or both of Kerry and Mayo will have been beaten in their province. You seem absolutely convinced that they won't be beaten so maybe take the piggybank down to your nearest bookies fast!?Obviously multipliers increase the odds as you are backing on more than one event but for example, in 'ultra competitive ulster' TM, you can do accumulators on 1st round games that are still odds on (obviously these are individual games rather than provincial championships).

Soma (UK) - Posts:1369

I am sorry Soma but this does not really make sense. The bookies may be wrong but as a single bet -both Mayo and Kerry are raging hot favorites.

Obviously doubling up with greater the price. The bottom line is Mayo are hot hot favorites . Of course they could be beaten. I personally don not think they will but if they are it would not be the shock of the century either. I simply think Mayo are too good for the rest.

And yes Ulster is ultra competitive . Probably wont have an AI winner but as usual there will be more Ulster sides in D1 next year and in the Q finals. I do not think London or Leitrim would make an Ulster final.



As for Mayo poster - Keith Higgins not an 11 ? I think he is superb there. Well actually I think he is excellent everywhere he plays.

The favorites in Ulster are 9/4

TheRightStuff (Donegal) - Posts: 1688 - 14/04/2016 20:44:47    1845775

I don't know what you are struggling to understand TRS? To put things another way, the bookies have the odds of Mayo and Kerry both being provincial champions this year the same as Dublin being All-Ireland champions. Yet we are to believe from many on here that the first scenario is a certainty but the 2nd isn't. Interestingly Cork and Roscommon both being provincial champions is seen as being more likely than any Ulster county winning the All-Ireland!

Soma (UK) - Posts: 2630 - 14/04/2016 20:59:34    1845779

He is great anywhere Right Stuff. But, for me, an 11 needs some creativity. Ciaran Mac probably our best ever No. 11. Keith is great making runs from deep and popping over a few points on top of being a great aggressive defender. Can't see him as a type of 11 taking a pass and turning and shooting from 30 yards. But I'm not convinced he'd be a good 11.

GreenandRed (Mayo) - Posts: 7369 - 14/04/2016 21:18:37    1845786

Soma - people are entitled to their opinions . The thread is on Mayo and their aspirations for 2016.

Mayo are a fine side and are priced at 8/13 to win Connacht . I feel they will as they are the best .

Why are you bringing in Ulster to it ? Mayo are probably better than all the Ulster counties but they WOULDNT be 8/13.
As usual you are being selective .
I actually do know a little about betting .

Soma - overall what in your opinion is the strongest province . The key word being overall ?

TheRightStuff (Donegal) - Posts: 1688 - 14/04/2016 21:56:08    1845803

TRS I only mentioned Ulster because I was replying to a post where you mentioned it! And what am I being selective on?
As for which province is the strongest overall, it's a matter of opinion. Is it the one with the most All-Ireland winners to come through the back door? Is it the one that produces the best champion? I know you are desperate for people to say it's Ulster and if we go by league positions it is, but then Monaghan have won 2 of the last 3 and despite that being a fine achievement by a fine side do you really think they would have been champions in any other province? To win any province is a fine achievement and deserves respect, August and September then tells us who the best team in the country is.

Soma (UK) - Posts: 2630 - 15/04/2016 08:33:25    1845809

Did I ask who is the best team in the country ? No I asked which province you felt was strongest .

There are one serious team in a Leinster and one in Munster as Cork have not showed their potential .

You refer to being AI champions - well in the past 25 years , Ulster has produced 5 different champions . Your beloved Connacht has produced one .

I don't need you say Ulster is the best , everyone on HS or has any knowledge of football here knows that .

When did I or anyone else on HS say the best team in Ireland was from Ulster ?

Please point that out ?

See I don't show bitterness towards Connacht as I think Mayo are a class outfit .

I have also went on HS lately to state I would love if Roscommon and Galway came again as a force . I don't ' hate particular regions or people '

I'm sorry but your are out of date to what's going on over here .

TheRightStuff (Donegal) - Posts: 1688 - 15/04/2016 09:44:29    1845826

I know a lot of mayo posters don't feel Higgins is a 11 but what do numbers mean in half forward lines anymore with Kerry at the moment we have Buckley playing as a 3rd midfielder and murphy and d. walsh as a two man halfforwrd line I think Higgins at 10/12 would be a serious addition to the mayo team with AOS at 11, think they would dominate a lot of teams at mf if this was so what age is keith? one of the all time greats imo

coopersleftfoot (Kerry) - Posts: 91 - 15/04/2016 10:06:30    1845839

TRS I think you were so determined to lash out you completely misread my last post, have a look at it again!
What is a 'serious' team anyway. Going back to the bookies, Tyrone are 12/1 to win the All-Ireland, Cork are 14/1, Donegal are 18/1. Yet you are telling me Tyrone & Donegal are serious teams but Cork aren't?
As for me being out of touch, I go to a number of championship games most years to all the provinces as it is a great way of spending a summer and seeing the country - if I had to guess I would say you have attended very few provincial games outside Ulster? I see the passion people have all over the country for football and their county and that is why I have no time for posters on here showing snobbery towards any province or county. I had no time for anyone who would have laughed at the standard of football in Ulster in the 80's either - as we have seen it doesn't take long for things to turn

Soma (UK) - Posts: 2630 - 15/04/2016 10:43:53    1845864

The Master
What I was trying to say was that Mayo's record in the later stages of the championship( semi final/ final ) is fairly poor and as I pointed out to win just two out of nine is a poor return
Now my own county have a poor enough record in Croke park as well( take away 2012 ) and we lost the biggest end of games we played there
I know you have beaten us twice in the q finals but to me the semi finals are away bigger games plus the final is the biggest game of the year both for everyone concerned with the team and look at the lift it gives a county to make the final
There is also no denying that the provincial finals are also big games but a team can reach a provincial final , yet have a good idea that they won't win an All Ireland
But Mayo are not one of those teams , in my book they are well capable of winning an All Ireland as everything is in place
Also I'd say ( this summer will prove it) that Dublin /Kerry are not much if at all very far ahead of Mayo
And I'd go as far as to say that if Mayo did win the All Ireland the vast majority of GAA people would be delighted for them
But just watch the banana skin in Connaught in case ye slip up

SamOnErrigal (Donegal) - Posts: 1427 - 15/04/2016 10:50:11    1845869

the reason people don't rate cork is because Kerry beat them often, and it wouldn't be convenient to some people to acknowledge that Kerry might have to play a good team before the ai series .munster is the only province this decade to have two winners or two different teams in the final except ulster, that despite being predominantly a hurling province the early nineties and 00s are long gone now

coopersleftfoot (Kerry) - Posts: 91 - 15/04/2016 10:53:48    1845873

TRS I think you were so determined to lash out you completely misread my last post, have a look at it again!
What is a 'serious' team anyway. Going back to the bookies, Tyrone are 12/1 to win the All-Ireland, Cork are 14/1, Donegal are 18/1. Yet you are telling me Tyrone & Donegal are serious teams but Cork aren't?
As for me being out of touch, I go to a number of championship games most years to all the provinces as it is a great way of spending a summer and seeing the country - if I had to guess I would say you have attended very few provincial games outside Ulster? I see the passion people have all over the country for football and their county and that is why I have no time for posters on here showing snobbery towards any province or county. I had no time for anyone who would have laughed at the standard of football in Ulster in the 80's either - as we have seen it doesn't take long for things to turn

Soma (UK) - Posts:1375

I live in Dublin Soma so I take in matches involving other counties/provinces all the time.

This debate has nothing to do with passion. Our won hurlers show passion- again nothing to do with it.

Do people have to say that the Munster and Connacht championships are equally as competition for you to be happy ?

Cork are their price because their only serious challenge to the last eight is Kerry. That is how betting works Soma.

I do not turn my nose down at other provinces - I am a regular visitor on other counties forums and usually congratulate them when they beat my own county.

At this present moment in the GAA, I feel Ulster has more stronger sides ( as a whole ) than the other provinces.

Ill say this for the final time - I do NOT think an Ulster team will win Sam this year. I dont have a problem with that.

I do have an issue with posters who constantly run down particular regions / counties.

This thread is on Mayo who I think have a fine fine side. I think they will win Connacht as they have only one D1 team to beat. Most other years, they do not have any D1 team to beat.

I think this might stand to them this year.

TheRightStuff (Donegal) - Posts: 1688 - 15/04/2016 11:26:19    1845884

TRS
I do have an issue with posters who constantly run down particular regions / counties.
What about posters who say "it will take a miracle" for Mayo or Kerry to be beaten in their province this year? Despite the bookies having it as odds on that one or both of them will be beaten. It doesn't look like a comment that is respectful to some counties/provinces. In fact I think the main purpose of such comments is to try and diminish the achievements of great sides like Mayo and Kerry as much as to run down the rest of the teams in these provinces.
Corks first game this summer will be against recent All-Ireland minor champions and U-21 finalists Tipperary. Donegals first game is likely to be against Fermanagh. Then Donegal will probably have to beat both Monaghan and Tyrone, while Cork will have to beat an excellent Kerry team in Killarney. In terms of who has the more difficult provincial campaign I really don't think there is much in it.

Soma (UK) - Posts: 2630 - 15/04/2016 12:11:02    1845899