ziggy32001
County: Meath
Posts: 2650

1714491 mchugh11

Are you drunk? Roscommon ahead of Mayo? ,Meath dark horses for the champ? my word..........
________________________
Not to mention Fermanagh!!!!

brendtheredhand (Tyrone) - Posts: 10897 - 15/04/2015 15:34:01    1714538

To win an All Ireland, generally you need to be there or thereabouts the year before and not win it.

In terms of probability, the next winner will have most likely reached a Semi final or final in the previous season, and narrowly missed out. The next winner is unlikely to face the previous All Ireland Champions enroute to winning the All Ireland, this is noted judging by the previous 4 winners.

We have only seen 6 different teams contest a Semi final in the past 4 years. And out of those 6 teams, 2 of those teams have only made 1 appearance ( Cork 2012 and Tyrone 2013 ).

Example:
2014 Semi finals Dublin, Donegal, Mayo, Kerry. Winner Kerry.
2013 Semi finals Dublin, Tyrone, Mayo, Kerry. Winner Dublin.
2012 Semi finals Dublin, Donegal, Mayo, Cork. Winner Donegal.
2011 Semi finals Dublin, Donegal, Mayo, Kerry. Winner Dublin.

So considering Kerry have won the All Ireland in 2014, the next All Ireland winner should probably emerge from Dublin, Donegal or Mayo.


OTHER CONTENDERS
If a new team makes a Semi final or final breakthrough in the Championship this season, they would be more likely to have a real title shot in 2016. So I would watch the likes of Monaghan, Cork, Roscommon, Meath etc to see whether or not any of them make the Jump this year. If they do, then I would consider them genuinely challengers for 2016.

GaryMc82 (Derry) - Posts: 3017 - 15/04/2015 16:08:36    1714551

I'd rate Diarmuid Connolly ahead of all them forwards mentioned besides The Gooch and Canavan who are out on there own.

clondalkindub (Dublin) - Posts: 9926 - 15/04/2015 16:14:38    1714554

Gerrymc. Cant disagree at all with your post, well thought out and factually based.
Cant see you been wrong.

royaldunne (Meath) - Posts: 19449 - 15/04/2015 16:57:41    1714575

royaldunne
County: Meath
Posts: 7238

1714575 Gerrymc. Cant disagree at all with your post, well thought out and factually based.
Cant see you been wrong.

The new All Ireland Champions rarely have not faced the Previous All Ireland Champions for 6 years now.

2014 winner Kerry avoided 2013 Champions Dublin.
2013 winner Dublin avoided 2012 Champions Donegal.
2012 winner Donegal avoided 2011 Champions Dublin.
2011 winner Dublin avoided 2010 Champions Cork.
2010 winner Cork avoided 2009 Champions Kerry.
2009 winner Kerry avoided 2008 Champions Tyrone.
2008 winner Tyrone did beat 2007 Champions Kerry.

Not an overly Important fact, but could be a change to that trend this year.

GaryMc82 (Derry) - Posts: 3017 - 15/04/2015 17:24:00    1714584

Only one observation...
Think we can rule Mayo out of winning Sam
I've no doubt they'll make the last 8 or 4 but you'd not put the house on them to win the big one, even with a ten point lead with 5 minutes left
Sorry Mayo folk, I'm not trying to be harsh on you but always the bridesmaid and never the bride!!!

brian (Meath) - Posts: 1954 - 15/04/2015 18:06:22    1714601

Cork getting to the semi-final would not be a jump. They are title contenders.
Monaghan getting to the semi-final would be a jump, but it is possible.
Roscommon getting to the semi-final would be ahead of schedule, quarter-final possible though this year, with semi-final possible next year if progress continues.
Meath getting to a semi-final would be a huge shock. Outside chance of getting to quarter final at most but only because they are more or less guaranteed last 12 due to Leinster draw.

county man (Limerick) - Posts: 1102 - 15/04/2015 19:17:19    1714635

Would really love from a neutrals point of view that the likes of Roscommon and Monaghan could maby start challenging the big counties when it comes to AI quarters or even Semis. Obviously my own county Meath, I seem to be a little unsure about them at this stage

PoppinPoints (Meath) - Posts: 225 - 15/04/2015 21:16:45    1714660

Meath could make a semi final but only if we drew mayo in quarters after the inevitable 4th rd game, we would have a one in 3 chance of drawing them as we would not be able to draw the dubs, its a long shot and lots of football to be played before that.

royaldunne (Meath) - Posts: 19449 - 15/04/2015 21:30:31    1714667

The provincials and qualifiers are all about getting to the quarter-finals first and foremost. I'd prefer to list top 4 or 8 but will respect the topic question:
1. Dublin
2. Cork
3. Donegal
4. Mayo
5. Monaghan
6. Tyrone

legendzxix (Kerry) - Posts: 7883 - 15/04/2015 21:45:08    1714671

RD

Honestly,we cannot make the semi finals...

ziggy32001 (Meath) - Posts: 8354 - 15/04/2015 21:52:02    1714672

legendzxix
County: Kerry
Posts: 4152

1714671
The provincials and qualifiers are all about getting to the quarter-finals first and foremost. I'd prefer to list top 4 or 8 but will respect the topic question:
1. Dublin
2. Cork
3. Donegal
4. Mayo
5. Monaghan
6. Tyrone

Legend, you are not doing yourself any favours putting up posts like that.

MuckrossHead (Donegal) - Posts: 5028 - 15/04/2015 21:55:40    1714675

Ziggy think about it, lets call a spade a spade, there is little doubt we will enter rd 4, the objective this year will be to win that game at all costs , then its about who we meet in quarters, cork/Kerry will be one, Donegal / Monaghan will be two then mayo unless they fall apart, if we drew mayo id be confident

royaldunne (Meath) - Posts: 19449 - 16/04/2015 08:05:26    1714680

The top teams in no particular order are Cork Kerry Dublin Mayo and Donegal.

Monaghan are possibly the best of the rest but cannot really be grouped with the above until they take it outside Ulster and knock one of the above 5 out of the All Ireland series.

That can be the only measure of a championship contender in my view.

Armagh Meath Tyrone Galway etc are nowhere at this juncture but that can change. It would be nice to see Roscommon build on their underage pedigree and make an impression.

seany16 (Dublin) - Posts: 1658 - 16/04/2015 09:21:00    1714688

At this stage it would be a fair assumption to make that the provincial finalists would be as follows
Munster, Kerry v cork
Connaught, mayo v Roscommon
Ulster Monaghan v Donegal
Leinster Dublin v Meath.

royaldunne (Meath) - Posts: 19449 - 16/04/2015 14:22:47    1714807

RD hard to argue with your provincial finalists
the 4 teams left will decide the fate of the four provincial losers..

The other 4 teams will decide the fate of the four provincials losers

I'd hazard a guess at Galway, Tyrone, Down, Armagh, Kildare and Laois filling those four slots with Derry and Cavan as outside bets depending on qualifier draws.. I don't see anyone outside of these coming through, but hope to be proven wrong

brian (Meath) - Posts: 1954 - 16/04/2015 15:27:57    1714831

Brian. Yep that's about it, anything else would be a huge surprise.

royaldunne (Meath) - Posts: 19449 - 16/04/2015 16:39:51    1714850

brian
County: Meath

I'd hazard a guess at Galway, Tyrone, Down, Armagh, Kildare and Laois filling those four slots with Derry and Cavan as outside bets depending on qualifier draws.. I don't see anyone outside of these coming through, but hope to be proven wrong

I would include Tipp in the mix. None of the above would relish a trip to Tipp in the qualifiers. They have some very good footballers and were good last year and would not have to improve much to get to the last 8.

mhunicean_abu (Monaghan) - Posts: 1044 - 16/04/2015 18:25:21    1714891

As it stands:

Cork
Dublin
Monaghan
Donegal
Mayo
Kerry

Bigger picture:

Dublin
Kerry
Cork
Donegal
Mayo
Monaghan

ish :D

realdub (Dublin) - Posts: 8597 - 16/04/2015 18:35:48    1714895

Summer football,

Kerry.
Dublin.
Mayo.
Cork.
Monaghan .
Donegal .

Those that could do damage,

Armagh.
Galway .
Roscommon.

Greengrass (Louth) - Posts: 6031 - 16/04/2015 20:00:27    1714918