Thanks, Malonemagic for your reply. I disagree with your maths.

The prov champs have to win 3 matches to win All Ireland. Probability 1/8.
Beaten provincial quarter finalists have to win 7 matches. Probability 1/128.
Therefore, provincial champions are 16 times more likely to win All Ireland than beaten provincial quarter finalists.

Provincial 1/4 final winners have 3 possible routes to glory.
Lose semi and win 6 (prob 1/128)
Win semi, lose final and win 4 (prob 2/128)
Win 5 straight (prob 4/128)
Total probability 7/128

Therefore, provincial 1/4 final winners are 7 times more likely to win All Ireland than prov 1/4 final losers.

I could be wrong; I'm a long time out of school.

tommy58 (Dublin) - Posts: 169 - 25/07/2014 20:37:30    1626005

It's a shame provincial grounds don't get more games. Championship Sunday's are great. An Ulsterman, who was a former GAA president, had a good call in fairness about provincial groups. It's the best way to promote the game as well. Guarantee each county at least two home group games in April and May before heading into the knockout stages.

legendzxix (Kerry) - Posts: 7857 - 25/07/2014 21:01:11    1626009

tommy 58 , you're still wrong because you keep omitting the provincial semi-final and provincial final ( that the provincial champs have to win ). Provincial champs have to win 5 matches , not the 3 you referred to . By the time they have won the provincial final , the beaten quarter finalists have won 3 back door games .

Malonemagic (Laois) - Posts: 766 - 25/07/2014 21:28:07    1626020

Assuming all matches are 50/50

The probability of a provincial champion winning the AI is 1/8.

The probability of a beaten provincial 1/4 finalist winning the AI is 1/128.

tommy58 (Dublin) - Posts: 169 - 25/07/2014 22:01:28    1626033

After a few years of provincial champions having a poor record in quarter-finals. It has turned around in previous years.
I suppose being guaranteed a game in Croke Park is a big reward for making the quarter-finals.
Getting a game in Croke Park should be like a badge of honour. I don't entirely agree with round 4 qualifiers being brought to Croke Park. I think they should have to earn it by winning the Round 4 clash and then arrive in Croker for the quarters.

legendzxix (Kerry) - Posts: 7857 - 26/07/2014 09:46:42    1626041

To Malonemagic -

Tommy 58 is absolutely right - you have missed his whole point, describing a different point of your own.

Tommy's point (as I most surely understand it) is that Prov Champs need to win three rounds from the AI QFs, but a 'Prov losing QFinalist'
needs to win 7 rounds to be crowned AI Champs - 4 rounds more, or 16 times harder - what happened to you ?

omahant (USA) - Posts: 2598 - 26/07/2014 14:13:09    1626122

Well if a champions round is a step in one direction, a Round of 16 is a step in the other direction. It'll replace qualifier rounds 3 and 4. Simply draw provincial winners at home against the 4 lowest Q2 winners based on league placing. Draw provincial runners-up against the 4 highest Q2 winners based on league placing with a separate draw for home tie.

Q1 would be played on same weekends as provincial semi-finals and Q2 on the same weekends as provincial finals.

legendzxix (Kerry) - Posts: 7857 - 26/07/2014 14:48:34    1626137

Omahant what are you and Tommy smoking. You just said in your post that provincial champs need to win 3 games from quarter finals on. But sure a losing provincial quarter finalist only has three games from that stage too. You cannot compare there odds without counting all the games both must play. I'll give you an example. Dublin beat laois in Leinster quarter final. Dublin went on to win leinster. But you cannot ignore that they had to beat wexford and meath when calculating odds.

Malonemagic (Laois) - Posts: 766 - 26/07/2014 15:56:23    1626153

In effect what Tommy might as well say is that all Ireland finalists are more likely to win all Ireland , as he's dismissing the games required to get there. To do an equal comparison of the odds of Dublin s odds going the direct route via laois going indirectly, it has to be calculated at the time dublin beat laois. Or let's just agree with Tommy and say all Ireland finalists are more likely to win all Ireland! !

Malonemagic (Laois) - Posts: 766 - 26/07/2014 16:07:16    1626158

Hi, Malonemagic.

The probability of a quarter finalist winning three 50/50 matches is 1/8. This is regardless of how many matches it took to reach the quarter final, or how well any of the teams they beat on the way have fared in the meantime. So, at present, all things being equal, Dublin's chances of winning the AI are 1 in 8. This, of course, will change as games continue.

After the Leinster 1/4 final, Laois were confronted with the task of winning 7 matches in order to win AI. Their chances at that stage were 1/128. Dublin's chances at that stage were 7/128. This, I think was the calculation you attempted in your initial post.

I repeat,
Provincial 1/4 final winners are 7 times more likely to win AI than provincial 1/4 final losers.
Provincial champions are 16 times more likely to win AI than provincial 1/4 final losers.

tommy58 (Dublin) - Posts: 169 - 26/07/2014 17:22:55    1626185

A lot of posts here seem to be oblivious to the needs of county championships to be played, or that clubs exist at all


Totally agree with the option of waiving home advantage for the Croker gate receipts a la Craobh Laighin

an tseabhac (Kerry) - Posts: 441 - 26/07/2014 20:39:00    1626284

We'll be playing Cork in a double-header with Galway v Kerry and, with 80k seats to fill, a quota for each county is 20k. Only Mayo will bring that support. Galway might bring 10-12k, Kerry 8-10k and Cork people will read about it on HS or in the papers. Neutrals and Armagh minor supporters will bring the total up to a max of about 55k. Playing the games in Castlebar and Killarney would definitely draw a bigger combined crowd, but all 4 sides have a good chunk of Dublin based supporters. With very few away supporters likely to travel, a Castlebar game would attract no more than 30k, with not much more likely to show up in Killarney. The atmosphere would be better in both grounds than in a Croker with the upper tier closed, however it'd only be a meeting of neighbouring counties that would make attendance gains outside Croker worthwhile.

Pericles (Mayo) - Posts: 2521 - 27/07/2014 09:25:18    1626356

God Tommy you're breaking my heart! ! I guess we re seeing it differently. As the thread is about rewarding the team that wins province, I believe you can only compare calculations from the point a team exits ; ie provincial winners compared to beaten finalists, provincial quarter final winners compared to beaten quarter finalists, and so on. In this way you will see that going the direct route gives you a 1 or 2 game advantage at most. It's difference of viewpoint. in the case of final it only gives you 1 game advantage. Cork are now back at the same stage as Kerry, so we're Kerry sufficiently rewarded for beating them. I think that was the essence of the original post on this thread

Malonemagic (Laois) - Posts: 766 - 27/07/2014 12:34:29    1626424

Hello, Malonemagic.

If my estimation of the merits of being in the All Ireland quarter final compared with being in Round 1 of the qualifiers is causing you heartache, please feel free to ignore it. In accordance with your wishes, I'll restrict myself in this post to measuring the advantage of winning individual games.

Winning the provincial quarter final gives you 7 times as good a chance of the All Ireland as the losers.
Winning the provincial semi final gives you 6 times as good a chance as the losers.
Winning the provincial final gives you twice as good a chance as the losers.

Are the above advantages too big, too little or just right? That's a matter of opinion.

All I ask is that these advantages be acknowledged in any debate.

tommy58 (Dublin) - Posts: 169 - 27/07/2014 13:52:14    1626458

You don't have to play a team coming through the qualifiers after coming off a win after you have just lost. You avoid the other provincial winners in the quarter finals. Seems reward enough to me.

doublehop (Kildare) - Posts: 4172 - 27/07/2014 14:01:18    1626464

My final post on this topic Tommy. You mention that the games it takes a team to win a province aren't included in odds. So also then, the games it takes a qualifier can also be ignored. A provincial winner and a losing provincial quarter finalist, both have 1/8 chance at that stage. The only advantage gained is playing two less games on the route, thereby making them 4 times more likely to win all Ireland. Not 16. . You cannot exclude one team's route, but not the other. So is 4 Times a big enough reward? And at that stage when all teams are 1/8 why not give champions home advantage ?

Malonemagic (Laois) - Posts: 766 - 27/07/2014 15:58:50    1626554

No.

Logistically wouldn't work. What for example if you had Cork at home to Antrim through the qualifiers for example. Think of supporters, transport, distances etc.

Personally I think no county should play at home for championship. Have double and triple headers in the bigger grounds around the place.

crossfieldball (Galway) - Posts: 650 - 27/07/2014 21:24:59    1626880

27/07/2014 21:24:59
crossfieldball
No. Logistically wouldn't work. What for example if you had Cork at home to Antrim through the qualifiers for example. Think of supporters, transport, distances etc.

Personally I think no county should play at home for championship. Have double and triple headers in the bigger grounds around the place. Disagree completely with that.
Cork at home to Antrim yes its a considerable distance but you just get on with it. It wouldn't be happening often so just go and play it. Yes distance is far but not that far at same time. Would need a night over for some but you can travel over in a day if you have to. My own club in Nenagh(rugby) has to travel up north 3/4 times a season for games and plenty of supporters travel.

Counties definitely should be allowed play at home in the championship. Having double/triple headers in bigger grounds isn't way to go. Spread games around and give all counties a chance to play in their home county in the championship

ormondbannerman (Clare) - Posts: 13473 - 27/07/2014 21:35:20    1626899