another point often made in this debate is that ulster teams have to peak alot earlier than munster teams because the potential for a tough game in the first match is more probable for an ulster team. therefore ulster teams are playing at their full potential from the start of the campaign whereas munster teams can tailor their training to peak later, safe in the knowledge that they don't need to be at peak form to win their opening match as the opposition is weaker. lets look at the first round matches playedby eventual winners in each province over the period in question.


2003
QF Tyrone 0-17 Derry 1-5

2004
QF Armagh 2-19 Monaghan 0-10

2005
PR Armagh 2-12 Fermanagh 1-7

2006
QF Armagh 1-13 Monaghan 0-10

2007
QF Tyrone 1-13 Fermanagh 1-9

2008
QF Armagh 0-17 Cavan 0-13

2009
QF Tyrone 2-10 Armagh 1-10

2010
QF Tyrone 2-14 Antrim 1-13

2011
PR Donegal 1-10 Antrim 0-7

2012
PR Donegal 1-16 Cavan 1-10

2013
QF Monaghan 0-11 Antrim 0-6

so a total winning margin of 70 points. which is an average of 6.36. if we drop the highest and lowest the average drops to 5.77

Now lets look at Munster. (I have had to cross check these as it appears Offside_Rule made a couple of typos.)

2003:
SF Kerry 0-25 Tipperary 1-10

2004:
QF Kerry 2-10 Clare 0-09

2005
QF Kerry 2-22 Tipperary 0-13

2006
SF Cork 0-09 Limerick 0-05

2007
SF Kerry 2-15 Waterford 0-04

2008
SF Cork 2-09 Limerick 0-12

2009
QF Cork 2-18 Waterford 1-07

2010
QF Kerry 2-18 Tipperary 2-06

2011
QF Kerry 2-16 Tipperary 0-11

2012
SF Cork 0-17 Kerry 0-12

2013
QF Kerry 2-19 Tipperary 0-08

this is a total winning margin of 118. with an average winning margin of 10.72
if we drop the highest and lowest we get an average of 10.88

so the average winning margin for the eventual champions in their first match is 10.72 in Munster and 6.36 in Ulster.

s goldrick (Cavan) - Posts: 5518 - 18/07/2014 10:34:20    1620957

s goldrick I like what you done there as well especially impressed with your dropping of the outliers - very good practice in analysis.

Naysayer (Antrim) - Posts: 2071 - 18/07/2014 10:39:20    1620960

2x0=0
2x1=2
2x2=4
2x3=6
Look, I'm good at my maths

pj_mcmanus (Limerick) - Posts: 431 - 18/07/2014 10:53:23    1620976

Wee bit more to good analysis than simple aritmitic pj_mcmanus but good lad all the same - hope you did not cheat and google the answers to your sums :)

Naysayer (Antrim) - Posts: 2071 - 18/07/2014 10:56:10    1620980

s goldrick
County: Cavan
Posts: 2963

1620957
another point often made in this debate is that ulster teams have to peak alot earlier than munster teams because the potential for a tough game in the first match is more probable for an ulster team. therefore ulster teams are playing at their full potential from the start of the campaign

You'd expect to see Ulster team dominating the qualifiers as a result

Superglue (Kerry) - Posts: 1283 - 18/07/2014 10:59:41    1620984

Offside_Rule
County: Antrim
Posts: 1468

Its clear from these stats that in the period the easiest won All-Irelands (paths of least resistance) were by the Munster winners with the hardest being the Ulster winners.

It's clear for the stats that Ulster teams make hard work for themselves of winning the all ireland.

Superglue (Kerry) - Posts: 1283 - 18/07/2014 11:02:47    1620988

In fairness now S Goldrick and Offside have at least tried to put a bit of thought and good practice into how to represent the respective paths.

Naysayer (Antrim) - Posts: 2071 - 18/07/2014 11:09:00    1620990

We've an intriguing way of looking at this am I'm all for balance and fair play. This peaking too early and possibility of knocks is being overplayed. All players want to play games. Ulster players get the ideal amount and it is appropriate preparation for the All-Ireland series. I've mentioned before I've good time and respect for the Ulster championship and enjoy watching the battles. At the same time though, I never see anything that will hinder an Ulster team winning an All-Ireland. In fact I see the opposite.

legendzxix (Kerry) - Posts: 7870 - 18/07/2014 11:09:56    1620991

Superglue - hard to argue with facts and if thats all you have to offer then away with you and come back when you have something other than your opinion.

Offside_Rule (Antrim) - Posts: 4058 - 18/07/2014 11:23:54    1621003

another point often made in this debate is that ulster teams have to peak alot earlier than munster teams because the potential for a tough game in the first match is more probable for an ulster team. therefore ulster teams are playing at their full potential from the start of the campaign whereas munster teams can tailor their training to peak later, safe in the knowledge that they don't need to be at peak form to win their opening match as the opposition is weaker. lets look at the first round matches playedby eventual winners in each province over the period in question.


2003
QF Tyrone 0-17 Derry 1-5

2004
QF Armagh 2-19 Monaghan 0-10

2005
PR Armagh 2-12 Fermanagh 1-7

2006
QF Armagh 1-13 Monaghan 0-10

2007
QF Tyrone 1-13 Fermanagh 1-9

2008
QF Armagh 0-17 Cavan 0-13

2009
QF Tyrone 2-10 Armagh 1-10

2010
QF Tyrone 2-14 Antrim 1-13

2011
PR Donegal 1-10 Antrim 0-7

2012
PR Donegal 1-16 Cavan 1-10

2013
QF Monaghan 0-11 Antrim 0-6

so a total winning margin of 70 points. which is an average of 6.36. if we drop the highest and lowest the average drops to 5.77

Now lets look at Munster. (I have had to cross check these as it appears Offside_Rule made a couple of typos.)

2003:
SF Kerry 0-25 Tipperary 1-10

2004:
QF Kerry 2-10 Clare 0-09

2005
QF Kerry 2-22 Tipperary 0-13

2006
SF Cork 0-09 Limerick 0-05

2007
SF Kerry 2-15 Waterford 0-04

2008
SF Cork 2-09 Limerick 0-12

2009
QF Cork 2-18 Waterford 1-07

2010
QF Kerry 2-18 Tipperary 2-06

2011
QF Kerry 2-16 Tipperary 0-11

2012
SF Cork 0-17 Kerry 0-12

2013
QF Kerry 2-19 Tipperary 0-08

this is a total winning margin of 118. with an average winning margin of 10.72
if we drop the highest and lowest we get an average of 10.88

so the average winning margin for the eventual champions in their first match is 10.72 in Munster and 6.36 in Ulster.


Tyrone only beat Derry in a reply in 2003 0-23 to 1-5 and could easily have went out of Ulster on 18 May when they came back from 4 points down in the last 10 minutes. Down were 9 points ahead in the Ulster Final before Tyrone won the replay. You have to be ready every day in Ulster. Tyrone only beat Fermanagh by a point in 2007 0-13 to 1-9 before going on to win Ulster.

Byanthon (Tyrone) - Posts: 1780 - 18/07/2014 11:36:01    1621009

They are valid points Byanthon. The expectation then surely should be of Ulster domination of the qualifiers? A valid point made by Superglue.

legendzxix (Kerry) - Posts: 7870 - 18/07/2014 11:43:54    1621018

Naysayer
County: Antrim
Posts: 736

1620953
I do notice as well that all posts on this thread bar one are from Ulster or Munster and the one that was not was stating 'This is all getting very tiresome'.

As such maybe legendzxix and Treaty_Exile might want to let this subject go now before everyone gets totally turned off.

If you want to entertain yourselves in your summer holidays why dont you ring the neighbours doorbell and run away or else throw water ballons at cars and see if you can get a chase.

You might also have noticed that I was one of those who commented, basically to say this thread was pushing it a bit far on the back of a thread that was already heavily, heavily discussed. Legend is entitled to do that, but I think it's pushing the topic to saturation point in a few days like you said.

Regarding the latter, that's a good idea Naysayer! Might suggest it to my kids later on!

Treaty_Exile (Limerick) - Posts: 386 - 18/07/2014 12:01:13    1621036

Regarding the latter, that's a good idea Naysayer! Might suggest it to my kids later on!

lol - just make sure you are not about for the consequences :)

Naysayer (Antrim) - Posts: 2071 - 18/07/2014 12:13:37    1621047

Naysayer
County: Antrim
Posts: 737

1621047
Regarding the latter, that's a good idea Naysayer! Might suggest it to my kids later on!

lol - just make sure you are not about for the consequences :)
When it comes to taking responsibility for your actions, I'm not your man!

Treaty_Exile (Limerick) - Posts: 386 - 18/07/2014 12:30:33    1621064

Ha - just do like my Granny used to do then and deny you even seen them even if they are hiding behind the sofa in your front room.

Naysayer (Antrim) - Posts: 2071 - 18/07/2014 12:31:59    1621065

Offside_Rule
County: Antrim
Posts: 1470

1621003
Superglue - hard to argue with facts and if thats all you have to offer then away with you and come back when you have something other than your opinion.

Thought forums were for opinions?

We knows the Ulster c'ship is more competitive therefore tighter winning margins.
What is bull is the notion that competitive games are a hindrance to a team's success.
How many times have there been calls for provincial winners to get a second chance if they lose the quarter final due to the lack of competitive games?
We were told the like of Dublin and Armagh were victims of their own provincial success.
Counties aren't playing week in week out.

Take Donegal last recent fixture list
League Final April 27th
Qtr final May 25th
Semi Final June 22nd
Final July 20th

1 competitive game a month and this is apparently a bad thing.
Surely if a team is any good they can manage to condition themselves around that or am I missing something?
Kerry would love that sort of test.
Because of Corks collapse, Kerry now go to the qtr final without any real indication of where they're at.

Superglue (Kerry) - Posts: 1283 - 18/07/2014 13:35:36    1621123

Thought forums were for opinions?

Of course they are and that wasn't what I meant. People were giving opinions which are just that. Myself and others have done analysis and so have facts to back up our opinions. The debate is therefore at the point where opinions alone don't cut it. That was all.

Offside_Rule (Antrim) - Posts: 4058 - 18/07/2014 13:56:44    1621136

legendzxix
County: Kerry
Posts: 3376

1620991
We've an intriguing way of looking at this am I'm all for balance and fair play. This peaking too early and possibility of knocks is being overplayed. All players want to play games. Ulster players get the ideal amount and it is appropriate preparation for the All-Ireland series. I've mentioned before I've good time and respect for the Ulster championship and enjoy watching the battles. At the same time though, I never see anything that will hinder an Ulster team winning an All-Ireland. In fact I see the opposite.

The problem with your statistics, and Indeed one of the key issues with Treaty_exile's earlier thread, was that it is flawed from the outset. Rather than trying purely to look at which province is generally stronger, you took the position of trying to show why Ulster is not generally stronger!!

You fail purely as you haven't listed the contempory data of all 4 competing provinces and done an unbiased statistical comparison. Remember when you make an argument via a thread, It is up to you to really prove this argument not the Ulster fans who simply want clarification.

By "Northern logic", the strongest province is not and cannot be decided on a single team winning an All Ireland. All that can really show, is that a team existed that season who were of that standard. Which I suppose in a way does work to enhance the province, but Provincial strength is based on the overall strength of competition within a Province. This is were Ulster excels, specifically in range of provincial winners and range of All Ireland winners.

GaryMc82 (Derry) - Posts: 3017 - 18/07/2014 14:33:25    1621161

Superglue
County: Kerry
Posts: 854


What is bull is the notion that competitive games are a hindrance to a team's success.

Well, They certainly are if you get beaten in them.

We could look at another set of stats to see how many times the current champions of each province got beat in their first match the next season , thereby halting momentum and continuity.

s goldrick (Cavan) - Posts: 5518 - 18/07/2014 15:02:50    1621178

GaryMc, I see posters regularly saying Ulster is the strongest province, and looking down on the other three provinces. I also think there is an attitude out there that Kerry would have less, or even far less All-Irelands in Ulster (one poster quite ridiculously suggested they would be lucky to have 10 All-Irelands, although I trust that opinion is very much in the minority). What these posters fail to grasp is that Ulster being a strong province (and it has been) is a recent phenomenon. In the 130 years of the GAA, Ulster has been consistently good since the 1990's, and only rarely before that.

The All-Ireland Championship started in 1887. Ulster did not have a finalist until 1911. Ulster did not have a, All-Ireland winner until 1933. Sam Maguire did not go North of the border until 1960, when Down won the All-Ireland, and even at that they were only the second Ulster county to win Sam.

In the first 100 years of the Championship, Ulster had won...eight All-Irelands. In the 1970's and 1980's, Ulster produced two All-Ireland finalists, and neither won it. It is undeniable that Ulster, in the first 100 years of the Championship, were producing the weakest winner almost perenially.

In the 1990's, under the same system, Ulster went from not only being comepetitive, but being brimmed with quality. From 1991 to 1995, Ulster produced a finalist each year, winning four and Tyrone were very unlucky not to win in 1995.

In the 2000's, they continued to be the strongest province, with Tyrone and Armagh winning 4 All-Irelands and Derry, Donegal and Fermanagh making semi-finals.

I don't believe Ulster is very strong at present, although I still hear it being described as such. Donegal and Monaghan are good sides, I don't think they're genuine All-Ireland contenders, but I could be proven wrong, and fair play to them if I am. But with the final round of qualifiers not even played, six Ulster sides are gone, and I think one of the three remaining are no great shakes. But that's not me saying Ulster is dead. Ulster will be back, and maybe soon enough!

Treaty_Exile (Limerick) - Posts: 386 - 18/07/2014 15:12:43    1621182