National Forum

Rigged Qualifier Draws

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So a draw, that had the same chance as any other draw of happening, happened so that equates to it being rigged?

MesAmis (Dublin) - Posts: 13710 - 26/06/2018 10:10:57    2115206

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Replying To Whammo86:  "Follow the money.

Mate, there's not much money in the GAA.

Honestly how much extra money is to be made from fixing the draw.

It's not unlikely at all that Mayo, Tyrone and Monaghan would all be kept apart.

The chance of Mayo playing Tyrone or Monaghan in an open 8 team draw is 2/7.

In the 5/7 of the time that Mayo don't play Tyrone or Monaghan. Tyrone and Monaghan will only play one another 1 in 5 times.

So 5/7 by 4/5 times none of the 3 of them play each other.

4/7 fair draws will not have a pairing featuring Tyrone, Monaghan or Mayo against one another.

Yet fix.

Right.

Catch a grip."
I think Monaghan couldn't draw Tyrone so the odds of the 3 sides been kept apart was 5/7, in other words much more likely than not. To believe the draw was rigged you also have to believe Mickey Quinn from Longford was in on it as he was drawing the balls - so a player from a smaller county willingly rigging the draw in favour of stronger sides and not mentioning it. It's proper tin foil hat stuff that seems to be almost accepted as the truth in the modern age.

Soma (UK) - Posts: 2630 - 26/06/2018 10:15:28    2115212

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Replying To Knoxboya:  "Talk us through rigged draws in the Munster SFC - that cosy arrangement which means Kerry end up practically vaccinated against provincial quarter final appearances.

Whatever you think about the qualifiers, at least each team that should be there starts out in the same hat."
What rigged draws in Munster? Do you mean the seeding where Munster finalists are straight into the semifinal for the following year?

Well il be honest I'm not a big fan of that rule as I'd much prefer an open draw but would you believe it if I told that this system we have in Munster was voted for by all 6 delegates from tipp limerick Clare Waterford Kerry and Cork .

Aren't ulster doing something semilar next year where if you're drawn to play in the preliminaries you get a by the following year?

KingdomBoy1 (Kerry) - Posts: 14092 - 26/06/2018 10:51:00    2115236

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Replying To KingdomBoy1:  "I wouldn't put it past them, the GAA has turned into a twisted organization only interested in making money."
You must be a lot older than me because I dont remember them being any other way!

tiobraid (Tipperary) - Posts: 4119 - 26/06/2018 11:15:01    2115251

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what contingency plans did they have if Monaghan and Tyrone were both left in the pot with 2 draws left to pull out. would it have been something like this ( 4 teams left in the pot including Monaghan and Tyrone).
lets say the other 2 teams left in the pot were Cavan and Mayo.
if cavan were pulled out then Mayo , put Mayo aside and pull again.
if Tyrone were then pulled out then it would be Cavan at home to Tyrone. Who would be at home in the final draw between Mayo and Monaghan ?
If Monaghan were pulled out first then Tyrone.
would they put Tyrone aside and pull again.
if they then pulled out Mayo, then it would be Monaghan at home to Mayo. Who would have been at home in the other tie... just wondering.

s goldrick (Cavan) - Posts: 5518 - 26/06/2018 11:42:36    2115272

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Replying To KingdomBoy1:  "What rigged draws in Munster? Do you mean the seeding where Munster finalists are straight into the semifinal for the following year?

Well il be honest I'm not a big fan of that rule as I'd much prefer an open draw but would you believe it if I told that this system we have in Munster was voted for by all 6 delegates from tipp limerick Clare Waterford Kerry and Cork .

Aren't ulster doing something semilar next year where if you're drawn to play in the preliminaries you get a by the following year?"
Yes that is happening, but it means you play minimum 3 games irrespective. Every other year could be 4.

You can only avoid the prelims if you were drawn in them the previous year. (Us and Cavan next year).

Being ulster champions means absolutely nothing in the hat so there is a big difference between what is going on in ulster and other parts of the country.

Donegalman (None) - Posts: 3830 - 26/06/2018 11:46:47    2115274

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Replying To Donegalman:  "Yes that is happening, but it means you play minimum 3 games irrespective. Every other year could be 4.

You can only avoid the prelims if you were drawn in them the previous year. (Us and Cavan next year).

Being ulster champions means absolutely nothing in the hat so there is a big difference between what is going on in ulster and other parts of the country."
Ya every province seem to do their own thing and that's fair enough, but it wasn't just down to Kerry that this system was brought it but did we vote for it ? Of course we did.

I'm glad yer selves and Cavan get a bye next year and it's only fair really, but it just goes to show that the provincials aren't fit for purpose.

KingdomBoy1 (Kerry) - Posts: 14092 - 26/06/2018 13:06:10    2115340

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In hurling, the GAA appears to have the same attitude to growing the game as the ICC has to cricket and World Rugby has to rugby, keep it popular in a handful of places and let it wither on the vine elsewhere.
It's scandalous that the supposedly national game is only played in a handful of counties, and in one of those at the expense of any football.
Football at least has the virtue of being genuinely a national game. Any attempt for a secondary, or B Championship and not allowing the smaller counties to compete would seriously threaten that. There would be zero media interest and soon zero player interest. Division 4 sides Laois, Carlow, Leitrim and Waterford all made some impact on the real championship this year. Five or ten years of a B championship and they might not even have teams at all.

Mark my words, any move down to this road will end in tiers.

SwissFarney (Monaghan) - Posts: 11 - 26/06/2018 15:04:23    2115440

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I see Croke Park want people to bring ID for the Pope"s visit in August. Anyone from a Super 8 county is still free but it's an extra €50 if you aren't.....

GreenandRed (Mayo) - Posts: 7346 - 26/06/2018 21:53:49    2115635

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Replying To Whammo86:  "Follow the money.

Mate, there's not much money in the GAA.

Honestly how much extra money is to be made from fixing the draw.

It's not unlikely at all that Mayo, Tyrone and Monaghan would all be kept apart.

The chance of Mayo playing Tyrone or Monaghan in an open 8 team draw is 2/7.

In the 5/7 of the time that Mayo don't play Tyrone or Monaghan. Tyrone and Monaghan will only play one another 1 in 5 times.

So 5/7 by 4/5 times none of the 3 of them play each other.

4/7 fair draws will not have a pairing featuring Tyrone, Monaghan or Mayo against one another.

Yet fix.

Right.

Catch a grip."
I see a flaw in this logic - if a 'fair' coin toss has a 50% chance of producing 'heads', we should deduce that the toss is less likely to be rigged. However, if I legitimately win the 'lotto', we should deduce that the draw 'must have been' rigged given my low probability. Even though everyone has a low chance - someone must win - but it doesn't address if the draw was rigged in favour of the winner. The latter requires an investigation, independent of legitimate odds, be they high or low.

omahant (USA) - Posts: 2598 - 27/06/2018 02:23:05    2115694

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Replying To Soma:  "I think Monaghan couldn't draw Tyrone so the odds of the 3 sides been kept apart was 5/7, in other words much more likely than not. To believe the draw was rigged you also have to believe Mickey Quinn from Longford was in on it as he was drawing the balls - so a player from a smaller county willingly rigging the draw in favour of stronger sides and not mentioning it. It's proper tin foil hat stuff that seems to be almost accepted as the truth in the modern age."
Mickey Quinn runs the Longford branch of the Illuminati , He is the root of the problem, didn't you know?!!!

LongfordSham (Longford) - Posts: 106 - 27/06/2018 09:48:54    2115737

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Replying To omahant:  "I see a flaw in this logic - if a 'fair' coin toss has a 50% chance of producing 'heads', we should deduce that the toss is less likely to be rigged. However, if I legitimately win the 'lotto', we should deduce that the draw 'must have been' rigged given my low probability. Even though everyone has a low chance - someone must win - but it doesn't address if the draw was rigged in favour of the winner. The latter requires an investigation, independent of legitimate odds, be they high or low."
Look up Bayesian analysis. A low probability outcome occurring has a greater impact on the updated probability of a hypothesis.

Your examples are flawed. The reason the lottery is trusted is that there's been years of independent adjudication without any hint of scandal. The a priori probability for a lottery draw being fixed is infinitesimal. So it's able to withstand low probability events occurring without scrutiny. There'd also be nothing suspicious about you a random individual winning the lottery. If you won twice in short succession that would raise suspicion.

The reason I mention the probability of the draw happening is that the draw itself is the only piece of evidence being brought forward to suggest a fix. Yet a draw where Mayo met Tyrone or Monaghan would happen only 2 times in 7 is very weak evidence.

Whammo86 (Antrim) - Posts: 4226 - 27/06/2018 09:57:17    2115743

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Hmm - event outcomes I suppose can lead to different conclusions on fairness or bias.
If there is faith in the integrity of the lotto draw, there should be no suspicion on either my 1st or 2nd success - integrity is a given and unwavering, whatever the outcome.
Re: coin tosses - should say, '5 successive heads' increase suspicion on the integrity of those tosses? In a fair environment, that series is expected to occur with 1 chance in 32 (normal distribution).
Perhaps your point is - suspicion should be raised where results are not 'normally distributed'.

While I've heard of the Baysian theory, I am unfamiliar with the finer details - I will educate myself.
Cheers.

omahant (USA) - Posts: 2598 - 27/06/2018 19:13:14    2116106

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Its hard to keep up with all the chopping and changing G.A.A Have been doing lately,think they confusing themselves even going by Kildares truimph.


Can anyone confirm that for Round 4 of the qualifiers,can there be repeat meetings from earlier?

Its seems Monaghan couldn't meet Tyrone in Round 3,though lat year in Round 4 Down played Monaghan a second time,so what is the story for Mondays draw? ( or will it be left to just make it up and see what happens as per usual)

macca999 (Fermanagh) - Posts: 1098 - 27/06/2018 23:44:26    2116235

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I remember seeing a "live" qualifier draw one Sunday evening on the telly, and the caption for Leitrim's fixture appeared before the second team was even announced. Also I once saw a Connacht Championship draw taking place, and there was no swirling of the canisters; the canisters representing a first round team was placed down, and then for the semi-final draw, the other guy just picked up the next canister beside it.

I'm pretty sure I've said it before (if only this forum gave you the ability to look through your previous posts): these draws should take place in a room full of people, not in some studio where there's no real outside scrutiny. It's so typically GAA.

Tacaí Liatroma (Leitrim) - Posts: 1032 - 28/06/2018 00:12:14    2116247

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Bayesian Theory - I have to say it helps with some blind spots. Bear with me - Maybe we can get more to join in :) -
Lesson I focused on - suppose you meet a random shy/student at a university campus, is it more likely that student is studying for a Maths degree or is in Business School ? How would you conclude if you knew 75% of Maths students are shy but only 15% of Business students are ? Maths, you say - not so fast - because 10 times more students study Business. So, 75% of 100 Maths students (75 are Maths and shy) or 15% of 1000 Business students (150 are Bus and shy). So blindly, 2x more students are Bus, given shy and that should be the choice -

OK back to GAA rigging the Qual draw.
If not rigged - as you say, Tyr drawing Mona or Mayo is 2/7 (for consistency, I allow the Uls repeat) and then Mona has 1/5 drawing Mayo - so avoiding has 5/7 x 4/5 = 4/7 = 57%
If rigged - can we agree avoidance = 100% ?
So like the student problem, we have
Probability % of Fair Draw x 57% or
Prob % of Rigged Draw x 100%. (Fair% + Rig%=100).
I don't see how you would get comfortable with an estimation of rigging potential but the probab assumption would need to be approx >35% above.

We have totally changed (beyond recognition) the focus of this blog site !

omahant (USA) - Posts: 2598 - 28/06/2018 04:52:02    2116271

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omahant this is a forum not a blog site

DonaldDuck (Tipperary) - Posts: 544 - 28/06/2018 11:25:26    2116344

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Both share views in a public sphere-
what is the difference ?

omahant (USA) - Posts: 2598 - 28/06/2018 20:00:32    2116519

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Replying To omahant:  "Both share views in a public sphere-
what is the difference ?"
Very different. A group forum is a written "conversation" between members of a group.
A blog is more of a personal page for the owner/writer to express their beliefs

DonaldDuck (Tipperary) - Posts: 544 - 28/06/2018 21:03:59    2116531

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So you'd prefer I create my own blog because the forum doesn't work for me as nobody reads my stuff ? My blog could be like an incubator or a environment where I could be quarantined. Why do you all seem so happy ?

omahant (USA) - Posts: 2598 - 29/06/2018 01:09:21    2116571

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