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So a draw, that had the same chance as any other draw of happening, happened so that equates to it being rigged? MesAmis (Dublin) - Posts: 13710 - 26/06/2018 10:10:57 2115206 Link 1 |
I think Monaghan couldn't draw Tyrone so the odds of the 3 sides been kept apart was 5/7, in other words much more likely than not. To believe the draw was rigged you also have to believe Mickey Quinn from Longford was in on it as he was drawing the balls - so a player from a smaller county willingly rigging the draw in favour of stronger sides and not mentioning it. It's proper tin foil hat stuff that seems to be almost accepted as the truth in the modern age.
Soma (UK) - Posts: 2630 - 26/06/2018 10:15:28 2115212 Link 0 |
What rigged draws in Munster? Do you mean the seeding where Munster finalists are straight into the semifinal for the following year? Well il be honest I'm not a big fan of that rule as I'd much prefer an open draw but would you believe it if I told that this system we have in Munster was voted for by all 6 delegates from tipp limerick Clare Waterford Kerry and Cork . Aren't ulster doing something semilar next year where if you're drawn to play in the preliminaries you get a by the following year? KingdomBoy1 (Kerry) - Posts: 14092 - 26/06/2018 10:51:00 2115236 Link 0 |
You must be a lot older than me because I dont remember them being any other way!
tiobraid (Tipperary) - Posts: 4119 - 26/06/2018 11:15:01 2115251 Link 0 |
what contingency plans did they have if Monaghan and Tyrone were both left in the pot with 2 draws left to pull out. would it have been something like this ( 4 teams left in the pot including Monaghan and Tyrone). s goldrick (Cavan) - Posts: 5518 - 26/06/2018 11:42:36 2115272 Link 0 |
Yes that is happening, but it means you play minimum 3 games irrespective. Every other year could be 4. You can only avoid the prelims if you were drawn in them the previous year. (Us and Cavan next year). Being ulster champions means absolutely nothing in the hat so there is a big difference between what is going on in ulster and other parts of the country. Donegalman (None) - Posts: 3830 - 26/06/2018 11:46:47 2115274 Link 0 |
Ya every province seem to do their own thing and that's fair enough, but it wasn't just down to Kerry that this system was brought it but did we vote for it ? Of course we did. I'm glad yer selves and Cavan get a bye next year and it's only fair really, but it just goes to show that the provincials aren't fit for purpose. KingdomBoy1 (Kerry) - Posts: 14092 - 26/06/2018 13:06:10 2115340 Link 0 |
In hurling, the GAA appears to have the same attitude to growing the game as the ICC has to cricket and World Rugby has to rugby, keep it popular in a handful of places and let it wither on the vine elsewhere. SwissFarney (Monaghan) - Posts: 11 - 26/06/2018 15:04:23 2115440 Link 0 |
I see Croke Park want people to bring ID for the Pope"s visit in August. Anyone from a Super 8 county is still free but it's an extra €50 if you aren't..... GreenandRed (Mayo) - Posts: 7346 - 26/06/2018 21:53:49 2115635 Link 1 |
I see a flaw in this logic - if a 'fair' coin toss has a 50% chance of producing 'heads', we should deduce that the toss is less likely to be rigged. However, if I legitimately win the 'lotto', we should deduce that the draw 'must have been' rigged given my low probability. Even though everyone has a low chance - someone must win - but it doesn't address if the draw was rigged in favour of the winner. The latter requires an investigation, independent of legitimate odds, be they high or low.
omahant (USA) - Posts: 2598 - 27/06/2018 02:23:05 2115694 Link 0 |
Mickey Quinn runs the Longford branch of the Illuminati , He is the root of the problem, didn't you know?!!!
LongfordSham (Longford) - Posts: 106 - 27/06/2018 09:48:54 2115737 Link 0 |
Look up Bayesian analysis. A low probability outcome occurring has a greater impact on the updated probability of a hypothesis. Your examples are flawed. The reason the lottery is trusted is that there's been years of independent adjudication without any hint of scandal. The a priori probability for a lottery draw being fixed is infinitesimal. So it's able to withstand low probability events occurring without scrutiny. There'd also be nothing suspicious about you a random individual winning the lottery. If you won twice in short succession that would raise suspicion. The reason I mention the probability of the draw happening is that the draw itself is the only piece of evidence being brought forward to suggest a fix. Yet a draw where Mayo met Tyrone or Monaghan would happen only 2 times in 7 is very weak evidence. Whammo86 (Antrim) - Posts: 4226 - 27/06/2018 09:57:17 2115743 Link 3 |
Hmm - event outcomes I suppose can lead to different conclusions on fairness or bias. omahant (USA) - Posts: 2598 - 27/06/2018 19:13:14 2116106 Link 0 |
Its hard to keep up with all the chopping and changing G.A.A Have been doing lately,think they confusing themselves even going by Kildares truimph. macca999 (Fermanagh) - Posts: 1098 - 27/06/2018 23:44:26 2116235 Link 0 |
I remember seeing a "live" qualifier draw one Sunday evening on the telly, and the caption for Leitrim's fixture appeared before the second team was even announced. Also I once saw a Connacht Championship draw taking place, and there was no swirling of the canisters; the canisters representing a first round team was placed down, and then for the semi-final draw, the other guy just picked up the next canister beside it. Tacaí Liatroma (Leitrim) - Posts: 1032 - 28/06/2018 00:12:14 2116247 Link 0 |
Bayesian Theory - I have to say it helps with some blind spots. Bear with me - Maybe we can get more to join in :) - omahant (USA) - Posts: 2598 - 28/06/2018 04:52:02 2116271 Link 0 |
omahant this is a forum not a blog site DonaldDuck (Tipperary) - Posts: 544 - 28/06/2018 11:25:26 2116344 Link 0 |
Both share views in a public sphere- omahant (USA) - Posts: 2598 - 28/06/2018 20:00:32 2116519 Link 0 |
Very different. A group forum is a written "conversation" between members of a group. A blog is more of a personal page for the owner/writer to express their beliefs DonaldDuck (Tipperary) - Posts: 544 - 28/06/2018 21:03:59 2116531 Link 0 |
So you'd prefer I create my own blog because the forum doesn't work for me as nobody reads my stuff ? My blog could be like an incubator or a environment where I could be quarantined. Why do you all seem so happy ? omahant (USA) - Posts: 2598 - 29/06/2018 01:09:21 2116571 Link 0 |