KEVIN McSTAY COLUMN
August 13, 2008
Tight at the top
There are many aspects to the 2008 championship that fight for our attention every week. Some of the topics can be controversial, others are worrying trends but in the GAA world it can sometimes be difficult to stumble across a good news story. Perhaps that is the fault of the association itself; after all, there are so many superb initiatives going on every day all over the country-new grounds, Feile, Cul Camps, launches for charities and so forth.
Yet we tend to focus on matters like the poor attendances, the poor fare on offer in the provinces and the future of the championships themselves. We write and talk about the referees and the CCCC, the role of punditry, discipline and fixture congestion. But surely the story of the 2008 championship to date is the wonderful winning football from Fermanagh.
As I write, the odd man out of Ulster football has just pulled off a memorable draw in the provincial decider. History makes a habit of repeating itself and so we should not have been surprised to find when Fermanagh finally made it back to a final, their first final since 1982, Armagh, their nemesis all those years ago, stepped forward again. But this time it was different and the comeback in the final must be respected.
But let's have a closer look at this historic Fermanagh team and their brave battle to win a first Ulster. We know these northern titles are hard earned but a question arises: is the 2008 championship the hardest ever won by any team?
In knocking out the NFL champions Derry from the battle for Ulster supremacy, Fermanagh played a wonderful brand of open, energetic and committed football. That win gave the perennial underdogs a great chance of making the All Ireland quarter finals again.
As mentioned, they play a lovely brand of football and if they tend to get men behind the ball when they cough up possession they know how to break at pace when it is regained. And the manner in which they mind the rock as they confidently throw it around until they find the open man is admirable; plenty of skill, running off the ball and belief in what they are doing.
The Ulster championship final was contested between two teams that were absent from Division 1 of this year's league. Armagh wandered around in Division 2 while Fermanagh togged a level lower. Had Down won through from the semi-final it would have made for an all Division 3 face-off.
But before you start groaning and wondering if the standard this year is a race to the bottom, consider this: the 2008 Ulster championship is the most difficult championship to win in recent years.
That's official and all thanks to research by Brendan O'Brien in The Examiner newspaper who went to the bother of working out the average winning margin in Ulster and the other provinces this season and years previous. I have updated his work by including all the provincial matches and finals to date. However, the Ulster replay is not included as I go to print but that is unlikely to skew matters.
I decided to concentrate on the last five years. It makes for very interesting reading indeed. The average winning margin in Ulster this year works out at 2.44 points per game. Lots of heavy breathing then and the need to wear bicycle clips is obvious. And out of that cauldron, Fermanagh emerged now with a team that is certainly better than the 2004 vintage that should have taken Mayo out in that exciting All Ireland semi-final.
The examination establishes Ulster as the most difficult and surprise, surprise, Munster as the easiest. But the numbers in the north for 2008 are astounding and the likelihood is their replayed final will remain interesting down to the final kick.
Winning Points Margin
Provincial Championships 2004-2008
2008 2007 2006 2005 2004
Ulster 2.44 3.33 3.33 5.08 5.30
Leinster 8.00 4.30 6.70 5.60 5.33
Munster 5.00 9.60 5.00 8.00 7.60
Connacht 10.17 6.00 5.30 6.00 5.50
The results hardly paint a pretty picture for the other provinces-just look at the Connacht numbers, which are obviously swollen by the London and New York participation. Yet the final was able to throw up a thriller, so, all is not lost. And Munster, the province most likely to have big margins needs to examine its future, even if the 2008 final was a real contest.
Leinster needs to show improvement and be a more competitive race, which will happen if Dublin shows some decline. On the evidence of this year's win, that is a while off and so the challenge for the other counties in the province is to step up to the mark. But the lack of an overall challenger is hurting their drive to an All Ireland; it looks like they will need to provide their own impetus.
In an overall examination the provincial finals have been most satisfactory and these masked shortcomings in both structure and performance in the early part of the season. The journey continues for those remaining and Croke Park is now in sight for at least six to eight contenders. Let the real games commence.
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