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July 18, 2007
Ask any journalist or bar stool pundit and they'll tell you in no uncertain terms what the big GAA story of the week will be - it'll be Ger Loughnane and whatever tricks he has up his sleeve to try and upset the All Ireland Champions and steer Galway to an All Ireland hurling semi final. Countless column inches will be devoted to it, but while it's tempting to have a little punt on the westerners at the very enticing price of 7/2 with Ladbrokes, instead we're going to look to the lower profile game on before it in order to recommend a bet. Most people will gloss over the first quarter final, saying that Wexford have no chance against a Tipp team that is on the back of such a stirring performance against Cork last weekend. In this column we think there might be a little bit more to this game than meets the eye, and in a surprise move, we're going to recommend Wexford plus five points at 11/10. At first glance many readers will suggest that perhaps your writer must have missed the Leinster final where Wexford folded so abysmally in the face of the Kilkenny challenge. On the contrary, we are well aware of what happened at HQ that day, and it's precisely for that reason that we're taking Wexford to bounce back this Sunday. Unless you are from Wexford or Offaly it's difficult to understand quite how much the dominance of Kilkenny within Leinster weighs on these two counties' respective psyches. In particular it's all too difficult to raise a fight back against the Cats when they hit you for early goals, as Willie O'Dwyer did twice in the Leinster decider. However Wexford hurlers are very proud players and they have spent a considerable amount of time dwelling on that game and looking for a chance to put the pride back in the county jersey. They are not a particularly good team in the sense of being All Ireland contenders, but neither are Tipp. Sheer force of will drove Tipperary over the line against Cork, but it's difficult to keep mustering that kind of effort week after week. Don't forget this will be Tipperary's seventh week hurling in a row, and that kind of schedule takes a heavy toll. Expect Tipp to play to around 60% of capacity this week and Wexford to surprise people. For those who think 11/10 is a bit short, we're going to recommend the two favourites in the Christy Ring Cup Semi Finals to make up a treble - Meath at 8/11 and Westmeath at 1/2. The overall bet should pay 9/2 at Ladbrokes' combined odds, and both these favourites look very strong. Meath with Tipperary native Eoin Brislane pulling the strings have been very impressive in this campaign, and after beating Down up in Ards they enter this game on a high. Kildare have also been decent, but they haven't stepped up the way supporters expected and but for a good second half against Wicklow they would have missed out on the knockout stages. In the other group Carlow have done all they've needed to so far, but Westmeath are the class act of this division and with Andrew Mitchell and John Shaw both scoring heavily, they look to have too many weapons for a moderate Carlow team.

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