A pundit's gamble About this time every year the 'Festival of the Pundit' takes place. It lasts for almost two months and can spill over into the early part of summer as some experts attempt to change horses mid race. To be an active member you must have studied the draw and of course as mentioned each time we head down this road, it helps if you are mad. Who in their right mind would attempt to predict who might win through a provincial and All-Ireland campaign? Strange to report, there are thousands of you out there because the punters regularly hijack this annual festival. This is a sports mad country and the explosion in interest across all codes had led to the development of a very vibrant gambling market out there. But ask yourself a question: Did you ever see a Bookie on a bicycle?' I cannot walk down the street but a cunning punter jumps from the shadows to inform me he has chosen the winners with complete certainty but would like my opinion all the same. Just to confirm his excellent selections of course. We have warned you before of the dangers of long term planning in sport, and the preview of any championship can provide a good laugh when viewed at the season's end. Still, the GAA football and hurling championships offer a much better chance of success to the strictly inexperienced gambler, than say, the horse racing or soccer. In 2006 your predictions should certainly have considered Mayo, Armagh and Dublin provincial wins as strong possibilities. In Munster, Kerry let the side down when losing to a very good Cork team. The All-Ireland winners of last year? Most followers had Kerry down; indeed, this is the team you should put down most years if you study the long-term form. And of course, they came back through the side door to win Sam Og. As you do. There is so much information out there that we need to consider, if our predictions are to be well-informed. Will Canty and Quirke make it back in time for the Cork push? And play at the same level of excellence as before? How deeply will the Kerry retirements be felt this year? Will they be a little tired from the win in 2006? Remember the number of years since the two-in-a-row was last achieved-1989-1990 when Cork triumphed. And look at all the teams under new management. Year one is always considered the moving year. Can Dublin find the extra few players they undoubtedly need to win the All-Ireland? Rested and reinvigorated, will Tyrone literally race out of Ulster or is there a final kick in Armagh? Questions, questions and if our information is 'good intelligence' we have an opportunity to cash in. The only fly in the ointment will always be the role the underdog plays. Who are the dark horses this year? In Connaught I would give strong consideration to Roscommon; in Ulster both Monaghan and Donegal will close the gap on the Big Two; Munster does not have a dark equine and Leinster features Laois. The draw took place in late 2006 in the new Player's Lounge in Croke Park and I was there to witness it. The main talking points centred on managerial appointments and whether the big powers avoided each other in the draws. At the time of writing we had 12 new managers appointed and when you consider only 20 or so teams can be considered really competitive, this represents a big turnover. And some of the biggest powers in the country set forth with new leaders Kerry with Pat O'Se and Mayo with John O'Mahony; Ross Carr up in Down and Colm Coyle over in Meath. This annual infusion of enthusiasm and profile is great for the championship and will allow many counties to dream of better days. These dreams rarely come through but they help kill the spring and early summer months! Back to the draw itself and we will start in Ulster. Tyrone and Armagh are on one side of the draw so a chance exists for a breakthrough by any of Derry, Monaghan, Down, Cavan or Antrim. I believe Donegal and Monaghan offer the best bet here and go for one of them to make the jump and possibly win the province also. Monaghan are my tip but more and more I like the big tall skilled players at Donegal's disposal. A Tyrone v Monaghan/Donegal final it is. Connaught is really exciting this year because Galway meet Mayo in Pearse Stadium in May and something has to give. Roscommon are the big winners here and will make it to the final if they keep their eyes on the ball. It is a very big year for the Rossies and their morale is high after the historic minor win late last year in Ennis. It will give them a point or two start. But when all is said and done, I think Mayo will be the team to beat here although Galway under Peter Forde are facing a make or break year too. Lots to think about then and this will be a close run race. Dublin will win Leinster with ease enough - the gap in the province has grown over the past few years and the Dubs are looking at the big picture. With the advantage that Croke Park bestows clear to see I expect they will see off the challenge of Laois who are on the other side. But some mention for Louth, Meath and Offaly is only fair. Munster is, as ever in recent years, a closed shop. The annual question is whether Cork avoided Kerry in the draw (they did) and if so who has home advantage (Kerry have). But the reigning All-Ireland champions are on the go a while now and if Dara O'Se does not have another stormer of a year who will supply the inspiration? Seamus Moynihan is gone and The Gooch is playing an awful lot of football. I think Cork will improve further by finding a few more players up front and I take them to win the province. My Top Eight for the quarterfinals are: Cork, Kerry, Mayo, Tyrone, Dublin, Donegal, Monaghan and Galway. Of course they must avoid each other in the Qualifiers if that is to be the road most travelled but it should pan out something like the above. And the champions for 2007? The colour is Blue and 2007 should mark the coronation of Dublin. As mentioned at the top of the column, have a look at the piece next August and have a right good laugh at my expense! Tweet

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