Scuppered payout
February 13, 2007
For those who were reading this column last week, rest assured that I've been on to Stephen McDonnell and he's assured me that he won't punish us like that again. For those who may have missed it (shame on you - no loyalty!!), we were thirty seconds away from landing our treble before Super Stevie from Killeavy got his late late winner in Crossmaglen, thus scuppering our payout. This is the danger of backing against proven players, even if Armagh readers will know that they were very lucky to take the points in that clash last week. Still, Stevie saved the bookies, so it's revenge time….
This week it's the Crossmaglen club that fly the Orchard flag, but while they are deserved favourites against St. Brigid's at 4/7, the Roscommon men are both too dangerous and too inconsistent to make this a viable betting match. Instead we'll focus on the live game on TG4 where Dr. Crokes look much too strong for Moorefield of Kildare. Moorefield are a proud club from a great footballing town, but their win over Rhode in the Leinster final owed a lot to the heavy conditions that prevailed in Portlaoise that day. The wet weather played right into the hands of Ronan Sweeney and his team, but with dry conditions forecast for the week ahead and the wide-open spaces of Páirc na nGael in Limerick as the stage for the encounter, Eoin Brosnan and Colm Cooper look set to run up a very decent total. It's hard to see Moorefield raising more than ten flags, and likewise it's hard to imagine Cooper, Brosnan and co. failing to raise at least half that again. Dr. Crokes minus three points on Ladbrokes handicap betting looks like an excellent 11/10 shot, though keep your eye on the weather - heavy going will reduce the scoring and thus reduce the appeal of this bet.
The National hurling league also kicks off this week, and with so little reliable form to go on for the first week's games, we're going to recommend an antepost wager - Clare to top division 1A at 2/1. With only five group games to play, every match is crucial, and the layout of the group has been very kind to the Banner County this year. Their only away games are to Down and Offaly, games which should be won easily given the difficulties the Faithful are having in recent years, while the other big guns of the group - Wexford, Cork and Waterford - all have to travel to Ennis. Wexford are in serious decline right now and even allowing for the uncertainty of the league, they have around a half dozen points to find on each of these teams, while Cork and Waterford are not sides that have a strong track record in the league - it's three years since either of these teams outperformed Clare in this competition. All this points to this 2/1 shot representing excellent value, even if you might have to bide your time until April before collection. Call it an Easter nest egg…..
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LADBROKES
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