Kerry by a whisker - Ten years ago Mayo entered the All-Ireland final in a very positive frame of mind. Back then they had quality players and were more than capable of beating a young Meath side. 2006 is no different - Mayo will be preparing for this final knowing that if they play to full potential then a first All-Ireland title in 51 years will be theirs. But the big question remains - can Mayo produce it on the big day? If Mayo can replicate their spirited performance against Dublin then Kerry will be in for a stern examination. The glamour final (Kerry V Dublin) may not have materialised but with two attack minded teams competing, I still expect to witness a compelling final. Whilst not too many predicted this pairing, their performances this year in the NFL indicated that both Mayo and Kerry play at a consistently high level. It was ironic that the only defeat Kerry suffered on their way to winning the NFL was to the green and reds down in Tralee at the start of the year. Since losing to Galway in the NFL semi-final, Mayo's rise has been notable, if somewhat gradual. Every game in the championship has seen an improvement inch by inch. This contrasts greatly with Kerry's progress since annexing the NFL title. Initially comfortably positioned the wheels came off the track very quickly. They hit the ground with a thud but in typical fashion they dusted themselves down and after a few adjustments they are now steaming ahead as ever. To date both Mayo and Kerry have produced their best performances against strong opposition. The manner in which the Kingdom dethroned Armagh was awesome. This was by far their best performance, not only this year but in the last three years. Kerry played with a ravenous hunger that Armagh could not contend with. Years of capitulating to northern teams had fuelled a passion that resulted in a famous victory. The previously lethargic Darragh O Se and Seamus Moynihan chose the Armagh game to spring to life with some vengeance. Mayo don't have particularly good memories of Kerry in All-Ireland finals and the re-ignition of these two giants in Kerry football has come at a bad time for the westerners. Like Kerry, Mayo saved their best performance for a team that was expected to beat them. The Mayo v Dublin game will go down in history as one of the most exciting semi-finals ever played. The game had so many twists and turns that it was impossible to single out one particular turning point. Much as been spoken about the shenanigans below Hill 16 before the game commenced and how this affected the Dubs. I would beg to differ - it probably had more of an effect on the managers than the players. Dublin's poor start should be attributed to a number of factors. For one they underestimated the potential within the Mayo squad. Secondly and more importantly, the prospect of talking part in a much anticipated Kerry v Dublin final dimmed their focus on the Mayo men. There is an outrageous level of hype that surrounds this Dublin team whenever they embark on a winning sequence. They often tend to build the team up and had them facing their great rivals Kerry long before Mayo had even accounted for Laois. Despite the best efforts of their over protective manager it is hard for the players to remove this hype completely from their minds. This level of expectation will now be at the door of the Mayo players. How they cope with this will determine the outcome of the final. In an All-Ireland final it should come down to 15 against 15 and who can win their individual battle. As the saying goes 'it's all on the day' and tradition should not come into it. It shouldn't but it invariably does. Recent tradition indicates that Mayo do not perform well in finals, especially against Kerry. The bookies must value tradition as they have placed Kerry firm favourites to add to their thirty three titles already won. I do not believe the outcome will be as clear cut. Mayo at this stage are battle hardened, they have prevailed through a number of nail biting finishes to date. There is an inner belief and confidence within the squad that will be hard to overcome. In an effort to predict the eventual outcome I have selected four crucial match-ups that are likely to occur and will go along way to deciding who lifts Sam. As ever the mid-field battle will be crucial. In Ronan McGarrity and Darragh O Se we have two of the finest exponents of the high catch. Both are key figures. I would go as far as saying that if either dominates then victory will be achieved by that county. In O Se I believe Kerry have a slight advantage. During his last two games he got the better of Cork's Nicholas Murphy and against Armagh he eventually overpowered an in-form Paul McGrane. In terms of scoring Mayo depend so much on the prolific Conor Mortimer. Conor does not fall into the current tactical trend of having a big target man on the square but he is proving to be every bit as effective. I will expect Mike McCarthy to pick up Mortimer with Tom O'Sullivan following McDonald. McCarthy is a superb reader of the game and can time his tackle to perfection. He will be relying on his outfield players to ensure that poor quality passes are kicked into Mortimer. If the supply is good then Mortimer is razor sharp and playing the football of his life - advantage Mayo. If the onerous task of stifling McDonald goes to O'Sullivan then he could be in for a torrid time. Despite the flashy appearance there is no soft centre to McDonald. He will cover more ground than any other Mayo player and will not shy away from a fifty-fifty tackle. It will suit O'Sullivan if Ciaran drops back too deep which he has a tendency to do. If this happens then Tom will add to Kerry's approach play as he is so efficient with the ball. Mc Donald will pose a bigger threat closer to the goal where he has the ability to score himself and carve openings for his colleagues - advantage Mayo. The final match up is David Heaney's contest with the man of the moment Kieran Donaghy. Heaney has been one of Mayo's finest servants. His greatest strengths are his versatility and durability. He is capable of playing anywhere and if he can limit Donaghy's influence it will be a big step for Mayo. Kerry should have the advantage on this one on one, the reason being that Donaghy is capable of winning possession, no matter what way it is played in. He is crafty enough to know when to catch it and when to knock it down to Messrs Gooch and Russell. Mayo had difficulty with the long ball into their full back line two years ago and Donaghy wasn't about then. I would expect more of the same this year - advantage Kerry. After these four key match-ups I don't see any clear advantage to either team. Of course there are other individuals concerned who are capable of being match winners in their own right. The fact that Gooch was not in the top four match-ups indicates this point precisely. So much will depend on the battle of the big men in the middle and if O Se performs to his best then it might just be enough to swing in Kerry's favour. But Mayo have more than a fighting chance. A decade ago they took Meath to a replay - history has a habit of repeating itself! Tweet

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