By Kevin McStay The early season diet of provincial and national football leagues afford the opportunity to teams and management to shake out and ready themselves for the real action of summer. It is a time to adjust - to new panels, new players, very often new managers and now, as recently confirmed, new rules. All of these ingredients are poured into the mixer and as the business end of the NFL approach, counties begin to cast an eye to the summer. After all, as the informed comment often reiterates, it is only the championship that really counts. But very few adages are completely true and the idea that one swallow never made a summer, in a footballing sense that is, is hardly gospel. After all, many teams must realise from day one that their best hopes of any type of relative success will be found only in how they fare in the leagues. Indeed for a few, how they fare in the FBD, McGrath, McKenna and O'Byrne Cup will be their only source of comfort when the annual audit is completed. Simply put, there are 15 to 20 teams out there for whom any championship success is certainly a bridge too far. Harsh? Not really, for a realistic appraisal will offer barely over the dozen or so contenders, teams for whom an opportunity to put in a good campaign are based on solid foundations. A quick glance around the provinces will reveal the following numbers: Leinster - five with possibilities Connacht - three teams at most Ulster - four in the running and Munster - only three And within these groupings we can find various subsets, teams that will measure success in terms of progress in the provincial championships, the Qualifiers and finally, the All-Ireland Series. For instance, it might surprise you to find that of the 15 listed, five teams will view the winning of the All-Ireland final as their bottom line. For these teams, winning the province is 'nice to do' but not even close to satisfying their want. Even making the quarter-finals in HQ will not rate-it is Sam or bust. So, for who is the annexing of the All Ireland the only game in town? Up north, Tyrone and Armagh jump off the page. Out west Mayo and Galway will settle for nothing else. Kerry will approach 2005 with only one goal in mind-be the first team to win back to back finals since their bitter rivals Cork repeated with the '88/'89 team. A sign of the times can be found in Leinster - to win out here will suffice nicely for all the major contenders - Dublin, Meath, Westmeath, Laois and Offaly. Anything thereafter will be a bonus - oh, how the mighty have fallen. But as each year rolls by we learn from experience that shocks are as much a part of the drama as favourites galloping home to victory. In recent times Sligo, Roscommon, Limerick, Fermanagh, Laois and Westmeath have bubbled to the surface in search of recognition. Who will be the surprise packets this year? As always the draw, especially pre qualifiers, is critical. By studying how the balls emerged from the pot one can identify opportunities for the minnows. Let's study the form then and see who has gained most due to the luck of the draw. In Connacht, and mixing up our speed rates for a moment, Galway should sprint to yet another final by accounting for New York in a stroll; this will be followed by some hard yards versus the winners of the Sligo/Leitrim match - most likely Sligo. The other half will see Roscommon entertain Mayo having blasted London and with this particular game down for Hyde Park, Ros' will face the game with hope. Still, you have to fancy last year's defeated All-Ireland finalists. Whatever way we view the Mayo performance that day, surely they will emerge a better team by virtue of their numerous trips to Croke Park last year. It will be closer than the 2004 effort by Roscommon in Castlebar, but it should still be a Galway/Mayo final in Salthill. And these games can always go either way. Just now, Mayo are the better bet. Munster will witness a Cork versus Kerry or Limerick final. Huff and puff all they want - this championship will not allow outsiders to have a say. It is about these three only and one suspects Limerick have done as much as they are going to do. Losing out last year (especially the drawn game) may well represent the high point for this squad but Liam Kearins considered options slowly and wisely in the off season and may know more than we do. By declining the post of CEO with some marquee teams, he must feel there is more fuel in the tank. Yet, winning these games are about high skill levels and players getting inspired - not sure Limerick can do it in 2005. Cork then, and only because they got a handy draw, to face and lose to Kerry. The big winner in Leinster, now that the pairings are known, are Wexford. Beat Carlow, and they should/will, and they journey to Croker for a semi against one of Dublin/Longford or Meath. Nothing to frighten them there of course but it is still a big ask. And they will be asked. I feel Dublin will come through as Meath are in transition and not playing that well for the past couple of seasons. Expect Laois to face Westmeath with revenge in mind. Laois and Dublin final it is - a toss up when selecting the winners. I've spun a coin and it is Laois! The annual Ulster trench fest starts with a beauty - a preliminary round in the middle of May with Armagh facing Fermanagh. Would it be a shock if last years Team of the Year won this round? Not really, which says everything about the Fermanagh journey. Armagh for the qualifiers and the end of their golden era while the Erne men, dealing from a full deck, will reach the provincial final. Tyrone will be parked in Clones waiting for them and will deprive them of a historic breakthrough. Teams to watch? Kildare will have some sort of run and Down must improve but outside of that we should have August quarters featuring Tyrone, Fermanagh, Cork, Kerry, Galway, Mayo, Laois and Dublin. The big but here is that defeated teams along the summer must avoid each other in the qualifier draw and that is, I guess, a big but. And if you want some fun consider a few bob on Roscommon, Limerick, Wexford and Armagh but limit yourself to specific goals i.e. particular qualifier rounds. These teams could make life difficult for the Top Eight if they get inspired, mad or just plain stubborn. Easy enough then, this old championship lark? Just sit down and in ten minutes, hey presto. But when you factor in home advantage, possibly new rules, injuries and suspensions, inspiration and perspiration, then predicting winners gets a bit more ropey. And we are all under the command of Lady Luck - smile or growl and she can have her say. Remember Dara O'Se during the Munster final of 2004? Plucked a few from under the Kerry crossbar - just one of those falling over and we would need a new ending. The attraction for all of us with an interest in the championships is the hope you carry in your heart-before a ball is kicked we want to believe, along the way we make ourselves believe - that this is our year, our destiny, our moment in time. It rarely is but the pull is magnetic. Miss it and you've had an entertainment bypass. Tweet

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