National Forum

The Corona Virus And Possible Effects To GAA Matches

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Replying To WanPintWin:  "There are a number of people in this thread who are being absolute one way or the other in terms of when action will resume. The truth is, they don't know.
People who say there won't be a ball kicked until there's a vaccine, can't possibly say that for sure.
Likewise, those who say we can play and manage with the virus, if community infection rates are low.
Even the experts don't know how this is eventually going to play out.
There are some signs that the virus is weakening and may continue to do so. This combined with very effective treatments could mean no requirement for a vaccine.
On the other hand, there were suggestions from some medical professionals that a second wave in late autumn could be even worse.
It's fine for people to share opinions, but you won't find any expert being as absolute about anything as some of posters. The reason being, they know how complex the matter is and how many unknowns there are."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/06/when-will-coronavirus-vaccine-be-ready

My reading of this is that we will be in for periods of time where "life as normal" can go on, when the virus has weakened and declined, but will then need to resume lockdown & social distancing measures rapidly when the virus starts to peak again.

Developing a safe and viable vaccine is only a third of the way towards a vast immunisation program being rolled out world wide. Politics & economics will be bigger barriers than scientists producing the actual vaccine.

Lockjaw (Donegal) - Posts: 6829 - 11/05/2020 16:24:32    2277954

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Ok not been on for few days. But is there any clarification on what the outcome of the league's will be?? Listening to sg last night, it was said highly unlikely they will finish 2020 league. So where does that leave it?? Take the end result as it stands? Or declare them null and void? And just start from scratch next year, or go with division 1 a and b and a division 2 a and b. ?? What's peoples thoughts on how it will end up??

royaldunne (Meath) - Posts: 16576 - 11/05/2020 17:03:18    2277955

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Replying To Lockjaw:  "Zinny I respect your opinion and wish I had your optimism but how can social distancing and contact sports co-exist? I'm not saying they can't, but I've not read or seen anything to make me understand how they can. Do you mean if the R number is lowered sufficiently enough that the risk of not adhering to social distancing is low also?"
R numbers rely on testing and doing a lot of it, with nobody knowing who their close contacts are it is impossible to test to check that what the actual R number is of any infected person so they use averages. So the people testing positive may not be as a result of the original positive test. Ireland had narrowed down the test criteria so as to focus on specific groups and relied on the lockdown to hope that if a household has someone with the virus that ends up with mild symptoms by the time the lockdown is done everyone in that household would no longer be infectious. However who knows if everyone in that household is no longer infectious, I know of cases where the virus was detected five weeks after the first symptoms which was only a couple of days of fever (but we don't know if they were infectious after five weeks). However what the current lockdown has done is reduced the number of daily cases down and now you would expect that contact tracing and quarantine of close contacts is possible. We don't get numbers on community transfer on a daily basis but in reality that is now key. Its this reduction that is critical and also if there is a community contact that you can contact trace and isolate everyone who they came into contact with. If for example there are no cases and then someone tests positive - if that person had 10 close contacts and all were isolated for 14 days during which time 3 tested positive the R number is 3 but since they are in isolation they don't in turn pass it on.
Social interaction with unknown people is the risk as they cannot be traced. If pubs are to open they will need to log everyone in the pub and the time because otherwise you now have broken the close contact chain. If you are playing a game the close contacts are know. Social Distancing itself limits the number of close contacts and therefore brings down the potential R number however if they have testing, contact tracing and quarantine right that is now manageable.
Social distancing itself in one form or another will be around for some time. For example would you stop to have a chat with someone you know on the street if they are in a group of people who you don't know or shake their hands? For me the randomness of going out is gone, everything is planned and you really don't deviate from that. GAA won't be back until community transfer is under control and we are getting no information on that daily. The article I read in the IT made me worry about where we are on it as well. I hope my optimism is not misplaced.

zinny (Wexford) - Posts: 726 - 11/05/2020 17:36:06    2277957

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Replying To Lockjaw:  "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/06/when-will-coronavirus-vaccine-be-ready

My reading of this is that we will be in for periods of time where "life as normal" can go on, when the virus has weakened and declined, but will then need to resume lockdown & social distancing measures rapidly when the virus starts to peak again.

Developing a safe and viable vaccine is only a third of the way towards a vast immunisation program being rolled out world wide. Politics & economics will be bigger barriers than scientists producing the actual vaccine."
So how long are we going to have social distancing for going by the Gaa comments there won't be any championships club or county while social distancing is around we could have no Gaa for A year to 18months can people really see it coming back to the same levels then how many players just won't bother going back to playing! Lot of smaller clubs will fold unfortunately lack of players returning lack of jobs locally underage players not coming through the grades to senior level!

theyoungbuck89 (Galway) - Posts: 54 - 11/05/2020 17:36:11    2277958

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Replying To royaldunne:  "Ok not been on for few days. But is there any clarification on what the outcome of the league's will be?? Listening to sg last night, it was said highly unlikely they will finish 2020 league. So where does that leave it?? Take the end result as it stands? Or declare them null and void? And just start from scratch next year, or go with division 1 a and b and a division 2 a and b. ?? What's peoples thoughts on how it will end up??"
I got the impression from listening to him that the league's we're being wrote off this year.

Bon (Kildare) - Posts: 875 - 11/05/2020 17:40:25    2277959

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Replying To Lockjaw:  "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/06/when-will-coronavirus-vaccine-be-ready

My reading of this is that we will be in for periods of time where "life as normal" can go on, when the virus has weakened and declined, but will then need to resume lockdown & social distancing measures rapidly when the virus starts to peak again.

Developing a safe and viable vaccine is only a third of the way towards a vast immunisation program being rolled out world wide. Politics & economics will be bigger barriers than scientists producing the actual vaccine."
The point I heard made about weakening was that the virus could weaken as a whole in terms of its impact on an individual (the famous viral load). This would reduce the risk to people and also make it much easier to treat, more in line with the common flu.
Whether this will happen, experts can't say for sure, but there are some indications already.
This would mean a different approach and possibly no requirement for a lockdown even if case numbers started to grow.
It could also very well do the opposite and require strict measures again. We'll just have to wait and pay attention to the updates.

WanPintWin (Galway) - Posts: 729 - 11/05/2020 17:48:22    2277960

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Replying To Stmunnsriver:  "i have said on here several times there will be no gaa this year or next, weeks ago i asked 2 barrister friends [one x county footballer
if the gaa would be libel if they restarted games and lads got infected, one reply was frightening, " i doubt in the long run if they would be found libel but without a doubt if anyone got infected at a match they could sue , now in the long run they will more than likely loose it in the high court , but it could tie the gaa up for up to 6 to 10 years in the high court costing millions and in the meantime no games could be played. there it is, from a barrister"]so your saying that if gaa returns and someone ends up with covid 19 a week later he will sue the gaa even tho he might have been infected at the local shopping centre or playing golf or at work......you'll tell a good one yet.

munsterchamps (Limerick) - Posts: 842 - 11/05/2020 18:07:53    2277961

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Replying To zinny:  "I think that is the point - given how bad it could have been there was a mad scramble for a vaccine which never arrived but what has happened is that there are now effective treatments that allow you to live a normal life if you have it. People still die from AIDS however what it did do was change peoples personal habits in much the same way as I would expect this virus will have a long term impact on peoples personal habits. If it doesn't the world won't have learned very much. That said AIDS still decimates poorer countries but like most diseases we really turn a blind eye to the those facts."
I think a little like post 911 people adhered to the strict regulations and security was significantly tightened. But even that trailed off somewhat. St james hospital claims that STDs were up 300% which clearly reflects the lack of contraception being used these days.

lilypad (Kildare) - Posts: 1184 - 11/05/2020 19:14:52    2277962

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Replying To zinny:  " At best its a comment stemming from the lack of knowledge about the wider world and really what a virus is. The comments imply that China deals with multiple viruses and contagious diseases that the rest of the world don't. Its the type of comment and opinions that result in fear, hate and discrimination of Chinese people throughout the world and we have see the results of this on multiple occasions as a result of this virus. These type of comments and views should not be allowed to go unchallenged and need to be called out for what they are."
To imply that FoolsGold is somehow inciting discriminatory attitudes against Chinese people is nonsense. He made a statement of solid fact..quite a few of these zootonic viruses do originate in China whether you like it or not. Along with the current one and SARS, you can add in the Asian Flu(1956) and Bird Flu(2013). Hardly a coincidence is it. Obviously Chinese people have more experience of what it's like in responding to these outbreaks eg wearing masks etc. So, to claim otherwise and play the discrimination card is just burying your head in the sand. The world desperately needs China and their governments to realize the part they play in the outbreaks of these viruses and the sooner they do then the better.

Purpleandgold72 (Wexford) - Posts: 29 - 11/05/2020 19:21:51    2277964

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Replying To Purpleandgold72:  "To imply that FoolsGold is somehow inciting discriminatory attitudes against Chinese people is nonsense. He made a statement of solid fact..quite a few of these zootonic viruses do originate in China whether you like it or not. Along with the current one and SARS, you can add in the Asian Flu(1956) and Bird Flu(2013). Hardly a coincidence is it. Obviously Chinese people have more experience of what it's like in responding to these outbreaks eg wearing masks etc. So, to claim otherwise and play the discrimination card is just burying your head in the sand. The world desperately needs China and their governments to realize the part they play in the outbreaks of these viruses and the sooner they do then the better."
They've no Netflix in China either. They must be tough enough out there. Imagine lockdown in Ireland without Netflix.....

GreenandRed (Mayo) - Posts: 5637 - 11/05/2020 20:08:08    2277965

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Replying To Bon:  "I got the impression from listening to him that the league's we're being wrote off this year."
If they don't finish the league then they can't have a 2 tier championship, or can they?

Although it's probably going to be straight knockout like the championships of old.

KingdomBoy1 (Kerry) - Posts: 10900 - 11/05/2020 20:49:17    2277969

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Replying To Bon:  "I got the impression from listening to him that the league's we're being wrote off this year."
could be

royaldunne (Meath) - Posts: 16576 - 11/05/2020 21:43:53    2277971

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Replying To Stmunnsriver:  "i have said on here several times there will be no gaa this year or next, weeks ago i asked 2 barrister friends [one x county footballer
if the gaa would be libel if they restarted games and lads got infected, one reply was frightening, " i doubt in the long run if they would be found libel but without a doubt if anyone got infected at a match they could sue , now in the long run they will more than likely loose it in the high court , but it could tie the gaa up for up to 6 to 10 years in the high court costing millions and in the meantime no games could be played. there it is, from a barrister"]I don't think you know what libel means

Morty (Westmeath) - Posts: 103 - 11/05/2020 21:55:31    2277972

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Replying To Morty:  "
Replying To Stmunnsriver:  "i have said on here several times there will be no gaa this year or next, weeks ago i asked 2 barrister friends [one x county footballer
if the gaa would be libel if they restarted games and lads got infected, one reply was frightening, " i doubt in the long run if they would be found libel but without a doubt if anyone got infected at a match they could sue , now in the long run they will more than likely loose it in the high court , but it could tie the gaa up for up to 6 to 10 years in the high court costing millions and in the meantime no games could be played. there it is, from a barrister"
I don't think you know what libel means"]He means liable.

GreenandRed (Mayo) - Posts: 5637 - 11/05/2020 23:21:15    2277979

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First off, there would not be a court in that land that would entertain someone sueing because they played a match and got Covid19 not a chance. You are taking a known risk, forget it, so lets park that one. Secondly the notion nothing is going to happen until there is a vaccination is pure fantasy, there will be no vaccine, virus is way too complex. Thirdly it is going to be all about economics. When you see on RTE a news item stating a 600 seat capacity train with social distancing will have 67 places you know the lunatics have just taken over tge asylum. Totally unworkable, economically impossible. From the end of July this country is going to have to start borrowing just to keep going. Point is the economy has to be up and running by mid june no matter what the medics say. Ditto with everything including sport, GAA can have a social conscience but if soccer, ruby and other sports are running GAA will have to as well. Forget sueing anyone it cant happen no one is twisting our arm to play.

arock (Dublin) - Posts: 4320 - 11/05/2020 23:30:36    2277980

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Replying To Purpleandgold72:  "To imply that FoolsGold is somehow inciting discriminatory attitudes against Chinese people is nonsense. He made a statement of solid fact..quite a few of these zootonic viruses do originate in China whether you like it or not. Along with the current one and SARS, you can add in the Asian Flu(1956) and Bird Flu(2013). Hardly a coincidence is it. Obviously Chinese people have more experience of what it's like in responding to these outbreaks eg wearing masks etc. So, to claim otherwise and play the discrimination card is just burying your head in the sand. The world desperately needs China and their governments to realize the part they play in the outbreaks of these viruses and the sooner they do then the better."
Did he make a statement of fact? the same ones you are repeating and repeated by others that ends up putting at target on peoples backs. The facts that you have come up with are no better than your mates. The last global pandemic was in 2009 (more commonly know as swine flu) originated in the US and spread globally. It was officially a pandemic so therefore the world after 2009 should have already been aware of how to react to these viruses. The fact that many Asian countries reacted differently does go back to SARS (which reached 30 countries but not a global pandemic) and from that time on that if you were sick you should wear a mask so as to help prevent passing it onto other people. This is even in the WHO guidelines along with all the other things you should do to prevent the spread of viruses. So while people in Asia were wearing masks out of respect to other people and not giving them their sickness, in the west what were they doing? There have been warning for years that this type of pandemic could happen (Netflix were even on the case) but despite this nobody was prepared.
By the way Bird Flu has never been a pandemic as passing it from birds to humans is rare and still even rarer from human to human. Avian flu is a global flu in birds nothing specific to Asia or China. The fear with Avian flu is that because its so widespread within birds that if a strain that could be easily transmitted to humans occurred, then it would be impossible to stop. Again nothing to do with China as that could start anywhere.
1956 - you have to be kidding, its the year that Wexford beat Ring's Cork in the All Ireland, some would say one of the greatest Hurling teams ever however it was 1956 and as no impact on what is happening today.
My advice for you is take your head out of fox news and you might develop a balanced view of the world.

zinny (Wexford) - Posts: 726 - 12/05/2020 03:25:45    2277982

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Replying To lilypad:  "I think a little like post 911 people adhered to the strict regulations and security was significantly tightened. But even that trailed off somewhat. St james hospital claims that STDs were up 300% which clearly reflects the lack of contraception being used these days."
Its the same issue we are seeing these days with MMR, people become complacent as they believe its no longer a problem. There is an effective vaccine but they have seen a drop in vaccination rates not because of people antivax but its complacency. I guess its what they are trying to guard against in COVID as well and the lifting of the lockdown.

zinny (Wexford) - Posts: 726 - 12/05/2020 03:35:34    2277983

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Replying To GreenandRed:  "
Replying To Morty:  "[quote=Stmunnsriver:  "i have said on here several times there will be no gaa this year or next, weeks ago i asked 2 barrister friends [one x county footballer
if the gaa would be libel if they restarted games and lads got infected, one reply was frightening, " i doubt in the long run if they would be found libel but without a doubt if anyone got infected at a match they could sue , now in the long run they will more than likely loose it in the high court , but it could tie the gaa up for up to 6 to 10 years in the high court costing millions and in the meantime no games could be played. there it is, from a barrister"
I don't think you know what libel means"]He means liable."]whether its libel or liable there isn't a court in the world would entertain it because what proof would someone have where they caught the virus....

munsterchamps (Limerick) - Posts: 842 - 12/05/2020 08:06:04    2277985

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Replying To arock:  "First off, there would not be a court in that land that would entertain someone sueing because they played a match and got Covid19 not a chance. You are taking a known risk, forget it, so lets park that one. Secondly the notion nothing is going to happen until there is a vaccination is pure fantasy, there will be no vaccine, virus is way too complex. Thirdly it is going to be all about economics. When you see on RTE a news item stating a 600 seat capacity train with social distancing will have 67 places you know the lunatics have just taken over tge asylum. Totally unworkable, economically impossible. From the end of July this country is going to have to start borrowing just to keep going. Point is the economy has to be up and running by mid june no matter what the medics say. Ditto with everything including sport, GAA can have a social conscience but if soccer, ruby and other sports are running GAA will have to as well. Forget sueing anyone it cant happen no one is twisting our arm to play."
Incorrect. Developing a vaccine will not be a walk in the park. But to say it's way too complex is wrong. Compared to something like HIV, this coronavirus is much simpler in its make-up.

The approach you seem to be advocating in June is herd immunity. The economy being more important the health of the nation. This is what Boris and co initially went with and it has left them with the highest Covid death rate in Europe. There have been examples already of countries easing lockdown slightly, only to see a increase in Covid cases again. Whilst I agree that the economy is a very close second in terms of importance, it is a huge ethical dilemma for the government to deal with.

Being very callous about it, the big question to be answered will be, "are we willing to suffer potentially thousands of people dying for the perceived 'greater good' of the country?"

Lockjaw (Donegal) - Posts: 6829 - 12/05/2020 08:55:52    2277986

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Replying To zinny:  "R numbers rely on testing and doing a lot of it, with nobody knowing who their close contacts are it is impossible to test to check that what the actual R number is of any infected person so they use averages. So the people testing positive may not be as a result of the original positive test. Ireland had narrowed down the test criteria so as to focus on specific groups and relied on the lockdown to hope that if a household has someone with the virus that ends up with mild symptoms by the time the lockdown is done everyone in that household would no longer be infectious. However who knows if everyone in that household is no longer infectious, I know of cases where the virus was detected five weeks after the first symptoms which was only a couple of days of fever (but we don't know if they were infectious after five weeks). However what the current lockdown has done is reduced the number of daily cases down and now you would expect that contact tracing and quarantine of close contacts is possible. We don't get numbers on community transfer on a daily basis but in reality that is now key. Its this reduction that is critical and also if there is a community contact that you can contact trace and isolate everyone who they came into contact with. If for example there are no cases and then someone tests positive - if that person had 10 close contacts and all were isolated for 14 days during which time 3 tested positive the R number is 3 but since they are in isolation they don't in turn pass it on.
Social interaction with unknown people is the risk as they cannot be traced. If pubs are to open they will need to log everyone in the pub and the time because otherwise you now have broken the close contact chain. If you are playing a game the close contacts are know. Social Distancing itself limits the number of close contacts and therefore brings down the potential R number however if they have testing, contact tracing and quarantine right that is now manageable.
Social distancing itself in one form or another will be around for some time. For example would you stop to have a chat with someone you know on the street if they are in a group of people who you don't know or shake their hands? For me the randomness of going out is gone, everything is planned and you really don't deviate from that. GAA won't be back until community transfer is under control and we are getting no information on that daily. The article I read in the IT made me worry about where we are on it as well. I hope my optimism is not misplaced."
Interesting take - your last paragraph. This is purely idle speculation at 9 in the morning and I'm still half asleep, but I'm wondering if there is potential for the pub industry to take advantage of the "randomness gone" point you made.

What I'm thinking is could pubs work temporarily on a reservation system like a restaurant? Start off slowly, 3-5 mates could book a 2 hour slot, paying a nominal fee to do so. They go in and enjoy a few pints and a catch up sitting apart. An hour is then spent disinfecting until the next 2 hour slot for the next 3-5 mates etc. I suppose the advantage to this would be the pub could then easily provide contact tracing via its booking system if required. Obviously there would also need to be a nominated person from the same house who would pick up each individual drinker.

Over time, and after careful monitoring, could try increasing the number of people from 5-8 etc.

There are guaranteed flaws to such a plan that I haven't thought of, and maybe this would only work in small country pubs. Maybe not even financially viable? But just off the top of my head

5 lads €10/hr in a two hour slot = €100
In the 2 hours they might have 5 pints = €125

It's by no means ideal, and a far cry from the craic of a normal Saturday night or whatever, but I do think that if our pub industry is to survive then a bit of out-of-the-box thinking will be needed.

Lockjaw (Donegal) - Posts: 6829 - 12/05/2020 09:39:28    2277990

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