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August 22, 2007
Kerry versus Dublin - when a rivalry is so famous that it has an entire book dedicated to it (Dublin vs Kerry, Tom Humphries, Penguin Press 2006) you know there's a lot more going on than just another game of football. Humphries' work is an excellent piece of reading, but sadly it doesn't tell us a lot about who's going to win next Sunday. Of all the matches that have taken place so far in the 2007 football championship, this is arguable the most difficult one to call. There are solid reasons for backing either team, but when push comes to shove, it's hard to resist the allure of the Kerry tradition.
In the past two summers of championship football Kerry have thrown in some seriously ropey performances - Cork 2006 and Monaghan two weeks ago come to mind. What they have also done, and not necessarily got enough credit for, is raised their game to a glorious level when the need arose. Last years All Ireland title was not won in September, but in early August when they blew favourites Armagh away with a phenomenal second half display.
This fixture is just the type of glamour tie that this Kerry team needs to bring out the absolute best in themselves, and if they can do that, nothing Dublin have done in the last few years suggests that they'll be able to compete. This Dublin team over the last five years have been consistent in their ability to avoid slip-ups against lesser opponents, but when push came to shove and they had to face off against a Kerry, Tyrone, Armagh or even Mayo, they've fallen short.
The final reason for suggesting that it could be a green and gold Sunday is in the one match up where Dublin look hugely under-powered - Ross McConnell on Kieran Donaghy. McConnell is a good footballer, and he would make many county teams as either a centre back or support midfielder, but he is not a full back, at least not in the traditional "thou shalt not pass" sense. Donaghy has been playing well all year despite getting little help from referees, and this could be the day when he cuts loose.
Having allowed for all these factors, it's time for the bets. There are several options with Ladbrokes for those who wish to load up on either side, but we would recommend Kerry (-4pts) on their alternative handicap at 5/2, and Kieran Donaghy to score the last goal at 6/1. His basketball background means that his fitness is superb, and as Dublin push forward chasing scores he could get the space he needs to finish the game off.
For a final recommendation, we're going to give a treble on Ladbrokes club coupon, incorporating matches all across the country. Crossmolina Deel Rovers, St. Gall's and Errigal Ciarán are three clubs that would all have high hopes of not only winning their county titles but going on to further glory in the winter and next Spring, and at a combined price of just over 6/4 we like their chances of accounting for Charlestown, Donaghmore and Creggan Kickhams respectively.
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