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August 08, 2007
6th August 2000 - Offaly 0-19, Cork 0-16. This Sunday will be seven years and six days after that famous semi final when the formbook was turned on it's head and the expected Cork vs Kilkenny All Ireland final failed to materialise.
Obviously none of those players will be involved next Sunday when Waterford meet Limerick, but it's no harm bear it in mind before getting carried away presuming that it'll be Kilkenny and Waterford going toe to toe on the first Sunday of next month. To listen to most analysts after last weekend's games it's a foregone conclusion that Waterford will dispose of Limerick with the minimum of fuss this weekend, but nothing could be further from the truth.
Yes, Waterford are a better team. Yes, Limerick are well held by the form of the Munster Final, and yes, nothing that Limerick have done so far suggests that they can give a game to any of hurling's current big three. All of this is true. Now look back to 2000 - Offaly had been eaten alive by Kilkenny in the Leinster final and had barely scraped past Derry while Cork were a young team, reigning All Ireland champions and seemingly on their way to bigger things. By comparison, Limerick won their quarter final comfortably in a tough local derby while Waterford have yet to reach an All Ireland final with this generation of players. The apple cart may or may not be upset next Sunday, but the wheels are definitely wobbling.
However having said all this, Limerick probably won't win. Ladbrokes' odds of 7/2 about Limerick emerging victorious are a fair enough reflection of their chances, and as such we'll look for value elsewhere. That said, they will have learned a lot more than Waterford from the Munster final - the next time Eoin Kelly drops back to midfield, Mark Foley will let him go and Dan Shanahan won't find himself in acres of room to score a hat trick. Since both sides will probably withdraw one attacker back to the midfield area to create space, this has the makings of a tight encounter, and in that environment, the double result bet of 15/2 about Limerick to lead at half time and Waterford to win at full time represents good value. Limerick will start passionately and proudly, and if they can keep out the goals they have every chance of staying in touch. Deep down they probably don't have the self belief to hold on, but they can cause Waterford a lot of problems on the way.
As for the football on Saturday, there can only be one recommendation - Derry to beat Dublin at 12/5. On the way to this stage, Dublin limped past a Meath team who at the time were developing, they beat an atrocious Offaly team by five points in a shocking game and won a poor Leinster final by two goals when Laois ran like headless chickens at them and left their wing backs to do all the shooting. In contrast Derry have accounted for Armagh, Mayo and the same Laois team twice as comfortably. Dublin are entitled to be marginal favourites, but Ladbrokes price of 12/5 is an insult to an excellent Derry team and should be punted.
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