We like to think that there's more to this column than just telling you how to bet - there's also the equally important function of dispelling some of the myths out there too, myths that could cost money if followed blindly. Much like Irish society is currently finding out that there's a lot more to the property market than clichés like "rent is dead money", in GAA betting there are clichés out there too. One of the most prominent is the idea that there is huge value in betting the draw in Gaelic Football. Obviously we're not here to recommend dismissing ever backing the draw in any football match, however the first three weeks of the season has seen a lot of these "draw backers" (or people who like to talk about being draw backers) coming out of the closet and claiming that backing the draw in every game is the way to retiring from work early. Here are the facts - when obvious mismatches are discounted (for example the two Munster semi finals last weekend where the result was never in question) over the past ten years, approximately 9.5% of all intercounty championship games that were drawn. This figure rises slightly for the national league, but bookmakers know this and the odds reflect that. In order for betting on the draw to reflect value, you would have to be getting at least 10/1 about the draw in order to return a consistent profit - and with draws consistently offered at prices as low as 6/1, blanket draw betting is just another "get rich quick" scheme that can be dismissed. However with all that said, selective draw betting is another issue entirely. Having spent the first half of this article dismissing draw betting, we're now going to recommend a draw bet this weekend - that being between Down and Monaghan at 13/2 with Ladbrokes. The Ulster football championship has a much higher draw percentage than any of it's provincial counterparts, and when one allows for two teams that are evenly matched, as we will see this weekend in Newry, the possibility increases even further. Monaghan are arguably the more dependable of the two teams, with a solid backline, aggressive midfielders and dangerous inside forwards - i.e. all the basic ingredients of a decent football team - but Down are capable of finding goals and staying in touch in games where they don't deserve to. With a good sized and vociferous home crowd cheering them on, they can hang on to the marginally superior Farney county and keep in touch, and with five minutes to go the draw is likely to be a very live contender. For our second bet this week, we're going to look to the Leinster semi final between Kilkenny and Offaly, and to the goalscorer betting. Brian Cody might not thank me for revealing the source of many of the Cats' goals in recent years, but keep an eye out for the Kilkenny full forward drifting out past the 21, bringing the full back out from goal and allowing space in behind for corner forwards to drift into. Paul Cleary is one of the country's finest young talents, but he has a lot to learn, as one would imagine for an under 21. His instinct to follow his man may be overpowering, and if Aidan Fogarty can get in behind and sweep up one of those long deliveries from the half back line, punters who availed of Ladbrokes' 7/4 about him to score a goal at any time could have every reason to be grateful for doing so. TO PLACE YOUR BETS, CLICK HERE NOW LADBROKES Tweet

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