The ratings game There are different tools we can use in our attempts to measure the ranking of a team or individual in terms of performance. A short to medium term view can be taken or a more historical long-term analysis often offers a better guideline to how matters might pan out. World golf, tennis, snooker and more recently rugby have all devised very complex systems that will cough out a ranking list at the touch of a button. And despite the expertise and funding available it often gets it wrong! At the beginning of the Autumn rugby internationals team Ireland could be found in fifth place only to rise to the dizzy heights of third when the southern hemisphere giants of Australia and South Africa were put to the sword. And believe it or not, despite winning their final match against the Pacific Islanders, Ireland dropped back down the list. Go figure. The GAA are busy with all sorts of matters these days and thus the idea of a ranking system is on the lateral priority list, if such an action sheet exists at all. This column starts the campaign today for a nation wide ranking list in both Gaelic football and hurling, at all levels and grades. Not holding our breath or anything of course. But we do know the punters just love lists about anything really; just something that is easy to follow and understand and you don't have to invest too much brainpower to stay with the programme. This time of the year seems to offer the perfect baseline for such a project. We can look back at the year (if only using one year of course), analyse the results, weight the competitions and complete the work. But this work cannot be straightforward because there are so many other factors to think about. Is the team under new management? Any retirements? What is the injury story-small hospital or big hospital? Any success on the underage front? And this is where the informed pundit has the advantage over the enthusiastic punter. Because the answers to the questions posed above will provide the battle intelligence for the year ahead. Let's take an example to illustrate the point. Tyrone were very poor in 2006 and lost out to Laois in a late Qualifier after a Round 1 exit to Derry in the Ulster championship. So, team going nowhere, fast? Hardly and if you check with their followers, their players and their management they will be strongly talking up their chances of winning the All Ireland for a third time in 2007. How so? Well, they were the reigning champions and tiredness and the long celebrations knocked a vital edge off their game. They lost almost half their winning 2005 team to injury and a few key retirements-PTG was simply irreplaceable. The local draw with Derry was not a help either so the odds on them repeating lengthened. But many of us will have Tyrone up there with the best of them on the opening slate for this year's championship. Them's the rules lads-with the GAA she's never simple! I tend to leave the mathematics to one side and rate the teams using a series of easy enough questions. Is this team likely to improve on last year? Or has it stagnated and threads water now? A bit like the swan-looks comfortable from a distance but is peddling like mad just to keep afloat. Or is the team in decline, going nowhere fast with morale and ambition difficult to detect? Be truthful about your own county and try to leave passion and natural bias to one side. I know we all live in hope of a sudden breakthrough - I'm from Mayo for God's sake! But I have to park the dreaming when it comes to cold facts. And if you are intending to wager a few bob, then get real, now. We say all this in the full knowledge you will not heed any of the advice because our bookmakers tell us the gambling by natives on a home county win are very often in direct conflict with the best advice and predictions available on the day. Here goes then-the 2007 guide to the championship: Teams on the up and likely to improve are: Tyrone Mayo Dublin Cork Galway Meath Down Monaghan Louth Roscommon Cavan Longford Sligo Clare Wicklow Remember that teams that stagnate may do so in the comfort of a tall perch - we don't think Kerry are going to get any better but will any of the improving teams beat them? They have the goal of a two-in-a-row to drive them on. The teams in this category are: Kerry Armagh Laois Donegal Derry Offaly Fermanagh The third list is one you don't want to be on. Some of these teams threatened a break through in the recent past but alas they fell back to the start line and much of the good work is undone. They are: Wexford Limerick London Waterford Kildare Leitrim Westmeath Carlow Antrim Tipperary One can argue with the three lists of course and if you attempt to rank them on potential, many of the teams in the second list will make a jump to the top. This is because there is a huge gap between potential and actual achievement. A couple of the darkest horses merit attention, even at this early stage. Which disqualifies them as dark horses I suppose! But keep an eye out for Longford footballers this year. The seniors are likely to have a great trip while their under 21s will take at the beating at provincial and national level - you read it here first. The aristocrats from Down will make an announcement some day soon and 2007 might well be their year. Under new management, we expect the squad to be invigorated with both enthusiasm and ambition. Look out for Cork this year and remember I told you about Roscommon footballers and their possibilities of a Connaught championship. Next month we will examine the draw in great detail but remember that this time last year this column gave you a sneak preview - I hope you got your bets on. We looked at the 2006 provincial championships and had this to say: 'Tyrone will not retain their All Ireland title. It is based on the retirement of one Peter Canavan and the significant loss he will be to them-my money goes on Armagh in such a scenario'. 'Connaught is straight forward-Galway will play Mayo in the final but only after Roscommon have won some pride back for the county. It seems to me that it is the turn of Mayo and so the vote goes to them. Indeed, I fancy Mayo may end up in an All Ireland semi final this year'. 'Did Cork avoid Kerry? Yes! Then, as sure as night follows day, this will be the final pairing and Kerry should win out'. 'The situation in Leinster is the most difficult to figure but for a change we will start at the end-Dublin will retain their title'. A new year dawns then and what an exciting one it promises to be on the football front - new emerging teams, new managers, new hopes. Floodlights in Croke Park and rugby and soccer too. Can't wait ……. Tweet

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