DoireCityFC, it's very interesting that you found this and shared it, but I suspect that you don't really understand it.
It's clearly not intended as a prediction tool, but rather than a collation of historical data. Rather than being impressed than Derry are ranked above Down today, if you are really trying to glean prediction indications from the rankings, you should really be looking who was higher last week. (In other words, the Derry victory is already factored in, hence partly - though perhaps not entirely - why they are now ahead of Down in the rankings).
Also, where are you getting these bizarre points differentials from in your predictions for this weekend's games? There is nowhere on those rankings where it even suggests by how many points one side would beat another. You've completely imagined those winning margins.
Thomas Clarke (Tyrone) - Posts: 1002 - 11/06/2015 12:47:58
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I understand it clearly. My lecturer at J town would be disapointed if i didnt ha ha. I know its not a prediction tool. I also factored in the old RT for team A and team B before looking at the figures. Simple!
In regards to the 'bizarre' points i gave those teams (highlighted by my comment saying they were crazy to see such high scores) I looked at the games in each province the previous week, Looked at the winning margin in relation to the table placement of each team and got an average for a province compared to points/rating and applied it to this weeks games. So no sadly my imagination isnt that intense these days so i didnt completely imagine those winning margins. Im happy to hear your prediction for this weeks scores and reasons behind them.....it would be a nice change from people simply blasting others ideas without any of their own ideas and evidence for them rather than just plain old boring negativity :)
Hardtimes thanks for that. The use the excat same table as the one I am looking at......and they did get the draw right. They were out by 3 points in the Derry v Down game but still a very good call. If I had used my method for Ulster as in my previous post I would have had derry at +1.5. Again not a perfect system for either ratings or predictions (which I know it is not for although seems a handy tool for calling games)
So Thomas Clarke......looks like the math is correct!.......so far i might add :)
its not a bad ranking system. but like any there will be anomoleeeees (not a hope of spelling that word correctly!). Armagh jump off the list. hard to see them 8th on last couple of years form. relegated to Div 3 and beaten by Galway in qualifiers. Maybe too many points generated for Div 3 results. not every team puts the same focus on winning league games.
in the fifa rankings central american teams are very high because they started high and only really play each other. Top golfers play each other regularly so the it is hard from someone outside the elite to break through. probably similar issues with these. Armagh prob benefit from playing higher ranked teams in Ulster making up for the league...... where as in other provinces u are playing low ranked teams therefore u dont gain much by beating them.
I understand it clearly. My lecturer at J town would be disapointed if i didnt ha ha. I know its not a prediction tool. I also factored in the old RT for team A and team B before looking at the figures. Simple!
In regards to the 'bizarre' points i gave those teams (highlighted by my comment saying they were crazy to see such high scores) I looked at the games in each province the previous week, Looked at the winning margin in relation to the table placement of each team and got an average for a province compared to points/rating and applied it to this weeks games. So no sadly my imagination isnt that intense these days so i didnt completely imagine those winning margins. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- True, not completely (good to see that standard at the Poly remain as high as ever!).
I never said that you couldn't use these rankings as the basis from which to predict games, but rather that this is clearly not the intended purpose. I also pointed out that, in using the rankings of sides after they have met to assess accuracy of predictions, your results will suffer as you've started with the wrong reference point.
Anyway, to go back to my original post, I think that it's an excellent snapshot of current statuses, as well as a fascinating look back through the history of the game. In the absence of anything that is remotely as suitable, I think that the GAA should definitely consider adopting this and launching 'Official Football Rankings'.
Thomas Clarke (Tyrone) - Posts: 1002 - 11/06/2015 14:24:35
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We are going to need 'Official Football Rankings' if this new change eveyone wants with seeded teams comes around. Cant just make the seeds up to suit HQ when and if the time comes