Which September? Last or next?

DoireCityFC (Derry) - Posts: 1580 - 10/06/2015 21:10:22    1735402

Although the calculation of the ratings is purely mathematical, the choice of parameters used for home advantage, championship weighting, score weighting and rating points spread were subjectively chosen so that, in the vast majority of years, the All-Ireland Champions were the number 1 ranked team at the end of that particular championship. In only 3 instances did the All-Ireland champions not finish as the number 1 ranked team.


anyone have a system better than this? If so don't tell the bookies ha ha

DoireCityFC (Derry) - Posts: 1580 - 10/06/2015 21:16:16    1735407

Fair play to whoever put this together as it must have taken an awful lot of time and creates a good discussion. But any ranking system that rated Fermanagh as the No.1 team for a week in 2004 clearly has a fairly serious flaw. They had good wins back then but rating them the top team in Ireland is a step too far.

Soma (UK) - Posts: 2630 - 10/06/2015 21:41:04    1735418

Oh I read it DoireCity, just making the point that probably our most dominant period in our history isn't included. But, having read through i have a few issues with the ranking and although given the way data was quantified it is probably reflective of the region of ranking where we are, I still think that the imbalance of opposition (although kind of accounted for) skews he placings slightly. Like me it's complicated.

Offside_Rule (Antrim) - Posts: 4058 - 10/06/2015 21:59:00    1735430

Okay, if you're going to set up a ranking system that goes back that far, then you've got to go back to the start of the GAA - why only go to 1925?

Secondly, the championship is and always has been unbalanced, with teams in Leinster playing up to 4 games before an All-Ireland semi final while teams in Connaught and Munster play as little as 2.

The system doesn't compare properly to international Rugby as rugby is based on recent times (4 years I believe).

I'm not sure there exists in any sport a completely fair ranking system and the old saying holds firm - "lies, damn lies, and statistics."

cavanman47 (Cavan) - Posts: 5306 - 11/06/2015 08:35:55    1735439

Cavanman again on the page there is the answer to your question

"Match results dating from the 3rd of May 1925 were used to complete the ratings from which the ranking system is derived. As of the 1st of May 2015, the results of 11,241 games have been included in the calculations used to compile the current rankings. However, the rankings are only reported from the start of the All-Ireland Football Championship of 1930 - this allowed a "bedding-in" period of 5 years for teams to find their level and for the rankings to present a true reflection of team's standing. Although results from pre-1925 are available, the introduction of the National Football League in 1926 greatly increased the number of games played by county teams, and thereby increased the accuaracy of the ranking system"

Again the idea here is to find a better way if there is one not just blast this system.

DoireCityFC (Derry) - Posts: 1580 - 11/06/2015 09:40:36    1735456

This last couple of years results seem to have a bigger bearing on counties ranking then counties results since 1925, for instance it makes little sense Kerry not been number 1 or Donegal been in the top 3 or Monaghan been in the top 6.

ros1 (Roscommon) - Posts: 1211 - 11/06/2015 09:50:29    1735461

I like it. I find it hard to see a team beating a team above them on current form. I know its not 100% true by generally speaking


My biggest issue that I havent mentioned is that Derry are 7th with 90.16 and Monaghan are 6th with 90.13 but I think this may be a typo as Monaghan are slightly better than us at present going by our last game Monaghan 0-15 Derry 0-10

DoireCityFC (Derry) - Posts: 1580 - 11/06/2015 10:06:24    1735471

It has got Lenister correct so far this year

Longford 5 above offaly (3 point win)
Dublin 19 above Longford (27 point win)
Laois 18 above Carlow (17 point win)
Laois and Kildare level before their 16-16 draw
Westmeath 9 above Louth (7 Point win)

So in Lenister its roughly a point win per posistion above the team you play. I find that very interesting if nothing else

DoireCityFC (Derry) - Posts: 1580 - 11/06/2015 10:13:21    1735477

DoireCity


A better way? . .well I'd go for a points being awarded based on the following:

All Ireland Champion . . 10points
National League Champion . . 6points
Beaten AI Finalist . . 5 points
Beaten Semi Finalist . . 3 points
Provincial champion . . 2 points
etc. etc.


as well as, say, a point for every league game won (as League is based on teams of roughly the same level of difficulty), and varying points or fractions of points for championship games won.

Not a million miles from what was done, but winning trophies must be rewarded IMO.

cavanman47 (Cavan) - Posts: 5306 - 11/06/2015 10:32:00    1735487

Decent idea but your system doesnt include level of opposition faced or if the game is home/away or neutral

DoireCityFC (Derry) - Posts: 1580 - 11/06/2015 11:05:34    1735513

This is excellent - fair play to the person who compiled/maintains it, as it must have taken a countless hours.

Having read the explanation, it's not saying that the current rankings are an accumulation of points from 1925, simply that this is the date from which he first started collating data. The current rankings are reflective of the last couple of years, as points are exchanged in every game played.

Yes, he has arbitrarily weighted championship vs league games, and home vs away. He also has capped the amount of points that can be exchanged in any one game. However, this only improves the rankings, as it stops teams being over-ranked based on a few good home league wins in February.

Again, well done to the person who has done this. It's so much better than the arbitrary rankings that we see journalists churn out, and the GAA should seriously consider adopting it. If they don't, he should set up his own page (ala the World Golf Rankings) and run it until the GAA eventually adopt it as official.

Thomas Clarke (Tyrone) - Posts: 1002 - 11/06/2015 11:11:22    1735517

It's so much better than the arbitrary rankings that we see journalists

The very point I was getting at. Yes its flawed but its the best we have

DoireCityFC (Derry) - Posts: 1580 - 11/06/2015 11:31:19    1735534

Soma I would imagine it would be due to the fact that Fermanagh weren't a bad side in 2004. They were playing division 1 football for about 4 years at that time. From 99 they had a few decent championship runs. In 04 they beat meath (99 champions), Cork (99 runner ups), Donegal (03 semifinalists and 04 ulster finalists), Armagh (02 champions, 03 runner up, 04 ulster champions and were favourites for All Ireland the morning they were put out)
Considering it takes into account the level of team you are playing against i can't imagine they werent that far off.

gotmilk (Fermanagh) - Posts: 4971 - 11/06/2015 11:34:09    1735538

Lets try it on Ulster and see if its as accurate as it was for Lenister??

Donegal beat Tyrone by 3 ( 6 places between them )
Monaghan beat Cavan by 1 (9 places between them once updated )
Derry beat Down by 1 ( 5 Places between them )
Fermanagh beat antrim by 8 ( 8 places between them )

Not as close as in Lenister but again it picked all the winners!

DoireCityFC (Derry) - Posts: 1580 - 11/06/2015 11:35:00    1735540

Munster


Clare beat Limerick by 2 ( 2 places above Limerick )
Tipp beat Waterford by 22 ( 16 places above waterford )

Again this chart is very good at predicting games.

DoireCityFC (Derry) - Posts: 1580 - 11/06/2015 11:38:15    1735543

Connachts time

Galway beat NY by 16 ( 21 places above them )
Roscommon beat London by 7 ( 18 Places above )
Galway beat Leitrim by 8 ( 14 places above )

So its more 2 points per places here but like in every other province it fails to get one wrong so far and hence I argue it is the best system we have

DoireCityFC (Derry) - Posts: 1580 - 11/06/2015 11:43:58    1735546

Doirecity i will be using it in the bookies from now on.

gotmilk (Fermanagh) - Posts: 4971 - 11/06/2015 11:56:40    1735556

Good a system to use at the bookies as any. Ill be keeping an eye to see when it first gets one wrong this year


Lets see if it gets this weekend correct with the same points differentials per province as before


Mayo v Galway Mayo by 10-14
Westmeath v Wexford Westmeath by 4-5
Meath v Wicklow Meath by 17 HA HA HA
Tipperary v Kerry Kerry by 13
Cork v Clare Cork by 17
Armagh v Donegal Donegal by 1-4

I think it will pick the winners but lets see if those crazy scores happen ha ha

DoireCityFC (Derry) - Posts: 1580 - 11/06/2015 12:19:41    1735573

DoireCity - I'd say you could do a lot worse than use the system to pick the winners . The guy on boards (think it's the same lad as does this one) has a prediction model and it's very very accurate so far . It even predicted the draw for Laois and Kildare .

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057173179&page=14

Hardtimes (Cavan) - Posts: 1056 - 11/06/2015 12:39:57    1735580