Muck - exactly , we scored one point in the opening 22 minutes V Armagh , Donegal people who can't analyse this for what it is are living in cuckoo land , Dublin won't beat us if we play like that again - they will murder us by 15-20 points . My posts on this site have always been positive but just not this time . It's a negative outlook but we can only judge on what we have seen . Who knows though !

TheRightStuff (Donegal) - Posts: 1688 - 14/08/2014 10:03:49    1636697

http://dontfoul.wordpress.com/

Have a we read of that there folks!!!

It begs the questions we are all trying to answer, great blog this kid has by the way very very insightful....

beidhmeanseo (Donegal) - Posts: 144 - 14/08/2014 11:52:23    1636758

This is a very basic argument but for Donegal to beat Dublin two things needs to happen. Donegal need to score more than Dublin and Dublin current scoring average will have to plummet through the floor. I can't see either happening never mind both.

Adler (Monaghan) - Posts: 754 - 14/08/2014 12:29:15    1636779

Its a great blog and it is refreshing from a GAA point of view because you don't get that kind of information for the usual analysis on RTE. ITs actual analysis of what happened. The stats don't lie though. It will take a performance from Donegal that they haven't shown all year to win (in addition to as a bad performance from Dublin as they have produced all year).

tirawleybaron (Mayo) - Posts: 1521 - 14/08/2014 12:48:11    1636791

Dublin are beatable, any team is on its day but I think for Donegal to win this they have to play a style of football they havent played in the last 3 or 4 years.

I dont believe you can play a blanket against this Dublin team. Donegals halfbacks would see a wall of runners coming at them for 75 minutes like they havent seen before and I dont think they could keep them all at bay for the whole game. You also cant play a two man full forward line and leave a defender free to pick up Cluxtons kickouts and let Dublin start a run at you.

In my opinion, Donegal have to go man to man - which they do have the players for, its just the midset shift for them I'd be worried about. Force Cluxton to kick long into the middle. Dublin can be flaky under high ball from kick outs and mopping up the breaking ball.Donegals midfield should then turn and first time ball into the full foward line, mixing high & low. Dublin half backs aren't 100% at tracking a run past them and I found us giving up scores against a fast ball in/hand off to the runner from c 20-30 yards out this year.

I think Dublin will win, only just, but I do worry about this game.

DNS1916 (Dublin) - Posts: 64 - 14/08/2014 13:07:55    1636805

DNS1916
County: Dublin
Posts: 48

1636805
Dublin are beatable, any team is on its day but I think for Donegal to win this they have to play a style of football they havent played in the last 3 or 4 years.

I dont believe you can play a blanket against this Dublin team. Donegals halfbacks would see a wall of runners coming at them for 75 minutes like they havent seen before and I dont think they could keep them all at bay for the whole game.

I'm not convinced dns.

Monaghan kept Dublin scoreless from play for 25 minutes using the blanket so it can work.

Donegal's version of said blanket is more advanced than Monaghan's & they shouldn't collapse in a heap having had a long break to recharge, something Monaghan didn't have.

Donegal will not change horses mid race. They are comfortable doing what they do & will back themselves to keep doing it albeit improving on the Armagh performance.

They will also draw comfort from 2012 when everyone wrote them off against both Kerry & Cork & they went on to prove the critics wrong by winning both games well.

Dublin are a great side & seem to be improving all the time, all Donegal can do is deliver 100% from their side. What happens then happens.

As the great Seosaimh Mhic Grianna once wrote "Rinne mé mo dhícheall agus is cuma liom.

MuckrossHead (Donegal) - Posts: 5028 - 14/08/2014 15:57:05    1636886

@ MuckrossHead
I agree that a blanket can do a job for Donegal but not in Croker for 70+ minutes against THIS Dublin team. I think if Donegal go that way and it doesnt work and they find themselves having to change tac mid game it would be worse for them than not starting man on man. Monaghan lasted 25 mins, Donegal might last 50 - but they wont last the full game doing it and by then it MIGHT be too late.

DNS1916 (Dublin) - Posts: 64 - 14/08/2014 16:07:19    1636892

Anyhoo, this is my view on Dublin/Donegal

Dublin are a truly great side. Dublin have a bench that any county would relish in fact many of the starting 15 could be from the bench and it would not make the slightest bit of difference. Dublin's stlye of play the intensity and controlled aggression, the skills the accuracy are all worth going up to Croke Park to witness. The honest endeavour of each player when they are selected or come on is admirable. Dublin are quite rightly the favourites, and have been all year, to win the biggest prize of all.

Donegal are also a great side, they don't have the strength in depth that Dublin have but have a good bench none the less, I also admire the style Donegal employ, I believe we should embrace different styles I believe that having a catch and kick shootout would be very boring but the notion is that the proverbial purists want this ( I have never met any of these so called purists. Donegal suffered last year because of the strength of the panel and after winning their All Ireland were exhausted last year and were easy pickings. Donegal are back this year, but have not reached the heights yet of the 2012 team, they have won games this year despite making some errors that the 2012 would never have made, kicking wildly in some instances and passing loosely and getting dispossessed while not under pressure like in the Armagh game. So by tightening up on this looseness and keeping to the well executed defence play that Donegal are best at, Donegal will be Dublin's biggest test and mat well be the only side to Beat Dublin.


Dublin should go on to win and even if Donegal beat them, which may happen, Dublin will win more all Irelands with these players there is no doubt about that in my view

ochonlir1 (Cavan) - Posts: 88 - 14/08/2014 18:20:03    1636952

I think Dublin fans, or others for that matter, believing we would run through Donegals 'blanket defense' and score at will are delusional especially if both sides bring the A game in a couple of weeks time. If Donegal set up ultra negative we are most likely in for a 70 minute low scoring war of attrition. Understandably it took Dublin up to 25 mins to unlock Monaghan and i feel Donegal will have much more success in that regard. However, i do believe that if Donegal set up in such a way Dublin will eventually get through and win the game.

If Donegal go ultra defensive then i think they will require goals which too is not beyond the realms of possibility. They have done it before!

I think JMG has two choices, set up ultra negative and concede the Dublin restart or attempt to be more positive and start Murphy and McFadden in the full forward line and at least try to disrupt Cluxton. Its tough to call, Donegals counterattacking game a la 2012 is good enough to beat Dublin but its not there at the minute and its hard to see a manager enter a game in hope of a performance; a bit like we were against Mayo in 2012.

Donegal will cut their cloth to suit their need but if they sit back 2011 mode i don't see where the scores come from. I expect Dublin to be cuter regarding the concession of frees and the full court press has been tailored all season for this game.

It will be an excellent occasion, a full house. Personally their brand and method of football is not to my taste but Dublin have a huge amount of respect for this Donegal team and i expect a massive effort from both sides. If i was to call it at this stage i'll go for Dublin +3.

seany16 (Dublin) - Posts: 1663 - 14/08/2014 19:10:15    1636974

excellent post Seanie

and the +3 points is crucial, tight games mean a goal can snatch it so if Dublin get that 4 point lead then Donegal may be vulnerable in the end but if they don't then the last few minutes will be very exciting

Cant wait!

ochonlir1 (Cavan) - Posts: 88 - 14/08/2014 19:33:18    1636981

Good post Seany16 !

TheRightStuff (Donegal) - Posts: 1688 - 14/08/2014 19:55:03    1636996

Tactically we know that Dublin will probably stick with the system that everybody else has failed to beat, with perhaps one or two changes likely to the starting lineup in order to suit the specific opposition.

Dublin normally keep a 3 man full back line in front of Cluxton, and the rest normally press up on the opposition in their own half. This advanced attacking threat forces most opposing teams have to keep extra men back, and most opt to do this at the expense of a full forward. So Dublin actually end up having an extra man to sweep in defence against a 2 man full forward line.
This naturally forces one of the full forwards to move outfield to try and get some ball, his marker moves with him and the other 2 remain cover the remain forward. But to do this, Dublin require a high work rate from the full forwards, half forwards, midfielders and half backs. Quick kickouts go to the extra man, and they generally keep the ball until they achieve a score.

DUBLIN have an average Championship score of 28.75 points per game ( 2.25 goals per game, 22 points per game ).
Dublin concede on average = 13.75. Average winning championship margin = 15 points.
While during the 2014 championship so far, Dublin concede on average 13.75, meaning they have an average winning margin of 15 points.
If you take 70minutes per game with approx 2 mins Injury time, thats 72 minutes x 60 seconds = 4320 seconds. 4320seconds of game time divided by 28.75 points per game = 150.26 seconds.
Dublin roughly score every 2 mins 30 seconds.


DONEGAL have an average combined Championship score of 17.25 points per game ( 1.25 goals per game, 13.5 points per game ).
Donegal conceded 12.25 points per game, giving them an average winning margin of 5 points per game.
4320 of game time divided by 17.25 points per game = 250.43 seconds.
Donegal roughly score every 4 mins 17 seconds.

GaryMc82 (Derry) - Posts: 3026 - 14/08/2014 20:03:47    1636999

If Donegal can get 2 or 3 goals, and simultaneously reduce Dublin's point scoring average of 22 points per game. Then a Donegal win is possible, however they will need to concede no goal's and limit Dublin to 16 or 17 points.

GaryMc82 (Derry) - Posts: 3026 - 14/08/2014 20:09:01    1637002

Donegal will study the first 25 mins of Dublin against Monaghan and feel they are better equipped to stay the distance ,it will be drilled into them if they concede a goal to carry on regardless , winning Sam in 2012 will give them the confidence to know they are capable of staying with it, but its the pace and overlaps Donegal need to get back into their game over the next 2 weeks to keep this a tight game. I was suprised at how Armagh were able to run through the midfield and pick out half forwards ,Dublin would love this and would really punish Donegal.
The Dublin lads are dying for this game and i would worry for Donegal if we get an early goal . But Donegal have some top players and very simply Dublin need to be 100% focused going into this game or like a lot of Gaa matches over the years we will be punished.
I wish a few of the Dublin Lads like SNUFF AND JIMBO would stop childishly trying to rub other posters noses in it constantly (i know there is a few wums from certain counties)but its getting really boring and embarressing as a Dublin Suppporter to see page after page on different threads with sneery remarks and looking down on people. Let other lads do that ,we have a great team that we should be appreciative for , after all the knock backs we got over the years we of all people should know what its like not to be winning and enjoy the moment.

AthCliath (Dublin) - Posts: 4347 - 15/08/2014 13:42:17    1637238

Personally i dont think this game is going to be as tight as people think! i just don't think donegal will have the legs to stay with dublin for 70+ mins! Also i think with the amount of firepower the dubs have i think we'll get the scores needed to win the game handily enough! Athcliath regarding the part of your post directed at certain dublin poster's well they're only having a bit of craic sure didn't we have our noses rubbed in it many a time by culchies and nordies when things weren't going too well for us and you can be sure that when our fortunes do change there will be a queue waiting to put the boot in again! We'll enjoy it while it lasts! Nobody's going to die here its only a bit of banter and wumming! UP THE DUBS!

DUBJOHN (Dublin) - Posts: 941 - 15/08/2014 15:16:50    1637296

DUBJOHN
County: Dublin
Posts: 187

1637296
Personally i dont think this game is going to be as tight as people think! i just don't think donegal will have the legs to stay with dublin for 70+ mins! Also i think with the amount of firepower the dubs have i think we'll get the scores needed to win the game handily enough!

I wouldn't agree on that, Donegal are probably one of the best condiditioned and fittest teams in the country. Dublin do have more pace in a few positions, but not all over the park. Donegal are well capable of going full tilt for 70+ minutes.

GaryMc82 (Derry) - Posts: 3026 - 15/08/2014 19:03:38    1637407

I am surprised how many people believe Donegal have a very strong defence - in my opinion they have not really come up against an attack any better than average this year and yet have conceded quite a significant amount of chances. I stated earlier this year that the standard of defending overall in Ulster this year has been poor, and the performance of Ulster teams outside the province seems to suggest there is some truth in this. It is hard to see what tactic Donegal can use that will cause Dublin problems.

Soma (UK) - Posts: 2630 - 15/08/2014 19:30:50    1637416

If Dublin don't win by 10+ I'll be astounded. No disrespect to Donegal. Dublin this year are unbeatable. Would love nothing more than to be proven wrong. But just can't see it happening.

royaldunne (Meath) - Posts: 19449 - 15/08/2014 19:43:01    1637425

Dubjohn
About Donegal staying with Dublin for 70 minutes plus does not worry me at all What would concern me more would be if Dublin get an early goal or two or build up a good lead in the first half. I think Donegal are fit enough, conditioned enough and physical strong enough to withstand Dublin Keeping out goals is a must for Donegal and they would need to score a goal or two themselves but I can see us really testing Dublin
Which brings me back to last years AI when Dublin were all out at the finish. To me Mayo finished as strongly and in my book bad defending cost Mayo.
I honestly think this will be Dublin's first big test since last year. The longer the game stays tight the better for us.

SamOnErrigal (Donegal) - Posts: 1427 - 15/08/2014 20:03:59    1637436

RoyalDunne - There ain't many Donegal folk gonna argue with that ! I also believe they will win it outright !

TheRightStuff (Donegal) - Posts: 1688 - 15/08/2014 20:08:38    1637437