Dublins or Donegals ?..

The reason I pick those two sides is, Mainly because they have both been favourites for the All Ireland this year since we opened up in the league in February AND The fact that they are the last two All Ireland champions (Dublin 2011, Donegal 2012)

Dublin won the league and their provincial crown but are not the current champs, They are in their first year with a new manager and a group of new young players. The start of a new era you would hope for Dublin. Furthermore they are hungry and want to prove that 2011 was no fluke and that they are better than they showed against Mayo last year when they patheticly gave up their crown. Donegal on the other hand didn't take the league seriously allegedly. Got relegated and despite beating Tyrone and Down, went into the ulster final as favourites and ultimately lost being outplayed and outbattled, They are however still All Ireland champions and they are still (most likely) going to be in Croke park on the August bank holiday weekend, Unlike Dublin they will have worked under the same management now for 3 years. They have been knocked down only to bounce back and win Sam, And now a lot of people think they have been "found out", So, Who's position would ye rather be in?

For me, Maybe i'm being biased, Id rather be in Dublins position right now. They have won silverware and have only lost one game in league/championship all year so far. I'm a firm believer in winning breeding confidence (not arrogance). And so far Dublin have won more games. I also believe Dublin have a stronger squad than Donegal, And that they aren't under as much pressure as they where last year (Similar to Donegal this year) in that people probably expected us to do well last year and expected us to defend sam successfully. Donegal are now under that pressure, Its new to them like it was to us, I don't know if Donegal have a plan B. If you stop McFadden and Murphy do you stop Donegals danger points ? I think you do, If you stop Bernard Brogan and Connolly, Sure you stop Dublin, Difference is they can bring on players like Alan Brogan, Dean Rock, Bryan Cullen, Kev Mc, Eoghan O'Gara from the bench.I know whos camp id rather be in right now.


What do yous think ?

waynoI (Dublin) - Posts: 13655 - 22/07/2013 19:44:59    1439334

I think its a bit if a stupid thread. Only my opinion. The Dubs of course. Sure the rest of us mere mortals only look on in awe.

DLlegends (Donegal) - Posts: 503 - 22/07/2013 20:08:05    1439360

Why is it a stupid thread ? Would you not debate it ?

waynoI (Dublin) - Posts: 13655 - 22/07/2013 20:13:20    1439366

waynol,

of those two, Dublin. Looked solid so far, came through Leinster comfortably and will fancy their chances against anyone.
Donegal have lost that feeling of invincibility, and will need to be lifted.


But when I read your opening sentence, I thought you initially were referring to a general position of playing this coming week or waiting in the quarters.
So if you were to ask; which position would you rather be in - Kerry's or Cork's, I'd actually pick Cork! I think losing the Munster Final (and knowing that they could well have won it) will stand to them. I think they'd beat Kerry if they meet again.

Sorry, I know i went off topic there a bit.

cavanman47 (Cavan) - Posts: 5305 - 22/07/2013 20:18:31    1439373

Dublin. And I dont think its even worthy of a debate.

I'll put it mathematically. I'll say our chances of beating Laois are 50%, and thats being optimistic given how losing provincial finalists have fared previously and the extent to how demoralising and comprehensive defeat it was yesterday.

If we do manage to win then we will play Dublin, Mayo or Kerry. All these teams will be fresh whereas Donegal will be playing their 3rd game in 2 weeks. And given how tired the team looked yesterday I think thats asking a bit much. But i'll give us a 25% shot of winning or 3/1 as the bookies would say.

So the odds of us winning both games are 0.5 * 0.25 = 0.125 or 12.5% or 7/1

Now look at Dublin. Whoever they are drawn against they will be favourites to win. So lets even say a low estimate of 60% (2/3) chance to win.

In summary, I would rather be sitting with a 60% chance of reaching a semi-final than a 12.5% chance

benjyyy (Donegal) - Posts: 1435 - 22/07/2013 20:39:47    1439394

Wayno do you ever sleep :)

realdub (Dublin) - Posts: 8812 - 22/07/2013 20:52:21    1439402

benjyyy
County: Donegal
Posts: 786

1439394
Dublin. And I dont think its even worthy of a debate.

I'll put it mathematically. I'll say our chances of beating Laois are 50%, and thats being optimistic given how losing provincial finalists have fared previously and the extent to how demoralising and comprehensive defeat it was yesterday.

If we do manage to win then we will play Dublin, Mayo or Kerry. All these teams will be fresh whereas Donegal will be playing their 3rd game in 2 weeks. And given how tired the team looked yesterday I think thats asking a bit much. But i'll give us a 25% shot of winning or 3/1 as the bookies would say.

So the odds of us winning both games are 0.5 * 0.25 = 0.125 or 12.5% or 7/1

Now look at Dublin. Whoever they are drawn against they will be favourites to win. So lets even say a low estimate of 60% (2/3) chance to win.

In summary, I would rather be sitting with a 60% chance of reaching a semi-final than a 12.5% chance



Mathematically maybe the wrong word ;)

But look at it this way: not many backed Monaghan yesterday. What if ye did beat them, then faced someone in the quarters (Laois,Cavan, etc.) who you were expected to beat, but you put in yesterday's performance (and your opponent played as well as Monaghan did). You are out with no second chance. . .

instead, now you have a game that you should still win (i'd give ye more of a 70% chance), and you will then play Dublin/Mayo who havnt hit top gear (and would probably need to to beat ye) or Kerry who should really have lost to Cork.

cavanman47 (Cavan) - Posts: 5305 - 22/07/2013 21:03:51    1439414

jeez...what a daft question?..

mayotyroneman (Tyrone) - Posts: 1821 - 22/07/2013 21:38:04    1439448

Wayno do you ever sleep :)

_________________

Sleep is for the weak!!

waynoI (Dublin) - Posts: 13655 - 22/07/2013 21:46:18    1439462

cavanman47
County: Cavan
Posts: 354

1439414
benjyyy
County: Donegal
Posts: 786

1439394
Dublin. And I dont think its even worthy of a debate.

I'll put it mathematically. I'll say our chances of beating Laois are 50%, and thats being optimistic given how losing provincial finalists have fared previously and the extent to how demoralising and comprehensive defeat it was yesterday.

If we do manage to win then we will play Dublin, Mayo or Kerry. All these teams will be fresh whereas Donegal will be playing their 3rd game in 2 weeks. And given how tired the team looked yesterday I think thats asking a bit much. But i'll give us a 25% shot of winning or 3/1 as the bookies would say.

So the odds of us winning both games are 0.5 * 0.25 = 0.125 or 12.5% or 7/1

Now look at Dublin. Whoever they are drawn against they will be favourites to win. So lets even say a low estimate of 60% (2/3) chance to win.

In summary, I would rather be sitting with a 60% chance of reaching a semi-final than a 12.5% chance



Mathematically maybe the wrong word ;)

________________________________________________________________________________

Eh? I'm not following you? :s

benjyyy (Donegal) - Posts: 1435 - 23/07/2013 11:38:06    1439639

Well since donegal lost to a division 3 team, couldnt hit a barn door in the process and face another game this weekend with several key players out of sorts, while dublin crushed the d1 league semi-finalists and newly promoted d1 team westmeath, have virtually no injuries and have a monster squad anyway, I would say dublin, funnily enough...

It is dublin's title to lose from this point. It they get beaten they will have bottled it, no question.

TheMaster (Mayo) - Posts: 16187 - 23/07/2013 12:03:43    1439695

Maigh Eo will never get as good a chance as this year. If they don't get over the line in September I'm not sure they ever will. You can tell by Horan's reaction after the game against Londain that he knows it too. There will be a lot of pressure on them but unfortunately I think they'll do it this year.

Culann (Dublin) - Posts: 2306 - 23/07/2013 12:21:49    1439713

22/07/2013 20:08:05
DLlegends
County: Donegal
Posts: 230

1439360
I think its a bit if a stupid thread. Only my opinion. The Dubs of course. Sure the rest of us mere mortals only look on in awe.

Yeah us mere mortals realised on Sunday that the world is round and Jim McGuinness is not God. To be honest this lost could be the makings of this Donegal team for 2013 (if they beat Laois). Lets be honest, Tyrone match aside the intensity of Donegal 2012 is not there. Nothing like a dose of of your own mortality to give one a kick up the backside. This could be in the long run suit Donegal.

bluedubstar (Dublin) - Posts: 835 - 23/07/2013 12:29:45    1439724

23/07/2013 12:03:43
TheMaster
County: Mayo
Posts: 7816

1439695
Well since donegal lost to a division 3 team, couldnt hit a barn door in the process and face another game this weekend with several key players out of sorts, while dublin crushed the d1 league semi-finalists and newly promoted d1 team westmeath, have virtually no injuries and have a monster squad anyway, I would say dublin, funnily enough...

It is dublin's title to lose from this point. It they get beaten they will have bottled it, no question.

Really? And would you extend the same 'crude' expression to your county if they follow the same faith? I'd like to be fair and think if Dublin where good to get to the AI final and if indeed they lost it would because we where simply beat by a better team.

bluedubstar (Dublin) - Posts: 835 - 23/07/2013 12:36:16    1439736

Culann
Maigh Eo will never get as good a chance as this year. If they don't get over the line in September I'm not sure they ever will. You can tell by Horan's reaction after the game against Londain that he knows it too. There will be a lot of pressure on them but unfortunately I think they'll do it this year.

I disagree. If we were in the position dublin were in this year - the clear favourite with the bookies and team in the best form, then we might not get as good a chance to win it again. Horan's reaction after the london game indicates taht we are not going as well as we should be, that is a plus for dublin.


Really? And would you extend the same 'crude' expression to your county if they follow the same faith? I'd like to be fair and think if Dublin where good to get to the AI final and if indeed they lost it would because we where simply beat by a better team.

Well no because we dont have the strongest squad and are not the form team. Both of those mantles belong to dublin. For them to be beaten from that point would mean that they lost it as opposed to someone being better than them. That is what bottling is, not like we just lost to a superior side in kerry in 04 - they were a better team than us. Dublin would be losing to lesser teams. You cant deny that this is the definition of bottling. If they leave it behind them then they will have bottled a great chance - a better one than 2 years ago when they went on to win I might add.

TheMaster (Mayo) - Posts: 16187 - 23/07/2013 12:57:19    1439763

This is Mayos to lose, Dublin are starting out as a team under a new management. Mayo have no excuse this year, if they bottle this one they've no one to blame but themselves, no stand out team in their way!

realdub (Dublin) - Posts: 8812 - 23/07/2013 12:57:24    1439764

Dublin are favourites, especially after Donegals performance in the Ulster final, but they are a young team starting out under new management and will get there eventually, even if it isn't this year, and they know that.
Mayo are under the most pressure to win. Here in Galway city Ive been seeing mayo flags hanging out the windows of cars,houses etc, since the Roscommon game. They've been hard at it the last couple of years. James Horan has put his heart and soul into this thing, and another failure may do serious damage to them.

joncarter (Galway) - Posts: 2692 - 23/07/2013 13:09:06    1439778

So themaster are saying that if Dublin fail to win the AI in 2013 that we bottled it?

I think thats a wee bit harsh no?

We have a lot of inexperienced at this level young lads in the team... playing in their first 1/4 final

I think if we lose it this year that we have still put in a very solid platform for future success

Gavin is only 8 months in the job, he's already introduced several of the successful U-21 team

Horan / Jim Mc are all into their 3rd year and have had a lot more game time with their players compared to Gavin

We've already won the league and Leinster in 2013... We are the only team in a position for the Treble

I think that in itself in an indication of how well Gavin has done is such a short space of time... if we lose we lose but thats still a great amount of work done by the current management

So far so good but there are big questions left to be asked

Meath are not a great side, far from it and they caused Dublin untold trouble in the back line...

You are entitled to your opinion of course but I think it's a little OTT

I'm very confident that with more experience that this Dublin setup could win multiple AI's... but in all honesty after the Meath performance... unless changes are made in defence and our forwards start taking some of these golden chances that we'll very much struggle to win Sam in 2013

It's all a bit too early IMO... but hey... I've been wrong many a time when making calls on Dublin

jimbodub (Dublin) - Posts: 20763 - 23/07/2013 13:20:50    1439796

This is Mayos to lose, Dublin are starting out as a team under a new management. Mayo have no excuse this year, if they bottle this one they've no one to blame but themselves, no stand out team in their way!

_____________________

Completely agree.

waynoI (Dublin) - Posts: 13655 - 23/07/2013 13:43:32    1439826

Another stupid thread where wayno1 wants us all to tell him how good dublin are. Give it a rest man will ya

theanylist (Wexford) - Posts: 151 - 23/07/2013 13:44:06    1439829