Just looking at some of trends for the bumper over last 10 years..
seven runners in last 10 years have started 3/1 or less but only one has obilged
all 10 winners had won a bumper with at least 15 runners
7 out of 10 winners had a pre race RPR of at least 121
6 out of 10 winners had been off the track at least 32 days

Silician Secret with a RPR of 110 beat six other runners at Leopardstown 24 days before the Cheltenham bumper, in a falsely run race in which he had to be hard ridden to get on top and is likely to go off a well backed favourite starting maybe 3/1 or less (generally 4/1 at moment). I didnt see the gallop at Leopardstown but I cant help thinking that Dunguib is a solid bet at 7/1 in most places and maybe better on the day if public follow Mullins. He has a RPR of 134, has won a Grd 2 bumper at Navan beating 7 previous winners and trainer expects him to improve on better ground.

gianfranco (Offaly) - Posts: 100 - 06/03/2009 12:46:30    225664

Dunguib also won the bumper that Corskeagh Royale won last year at Navan. And he made bits of a smart field including three time bumper winner Luska Lad. He won't be far away if on his day. The one thing that was really putting me off Sicilian Secret was the more than 15 runners statistic and it still does. He looks electric but how will he cope in a race like the Champion Bumper. I keep coming back to the chestnut Meath AllStar - he bet a field that has produced some very good horses since. Ground and hill will be up his street too. Morning Supreme and Katie Walsh will not be far away either and she looks the Mullins dark horse.

Loyal2TheRoyal (Meath) - Posts: 4522 - 06/03/2009 14:15:23    225764

Meath All Star would seem to be a nice horse, the 2nd, 3rd and 4th of that race at Cork have all won since. He should like the decent ground and from reading Weekender this week, Mullins seems a big fan of the horse. If he were mine, I wouldnt run him as Presentings can be a little immature and often improve with age and Id be concerned that he might have an over hard race in a traditionally tough race. Saying that there is no hard and fast rule and he could go close. He is a nice horse definitely.

gianfranco (Offaly) - Posts: 100 - 06/03/2009 15:15:36    225836

I wouldn't know as much about the Jumps sires as I would about the Flat ones but I was half aware about Presenting. He has never sired a winner of the race anyway. Still that is a negative but it won't put me off. Of more concern to me would be the record of 6yos. Missed That and Hairy Molly are the only 6yos to win the race I think (could have been one in early 90s, not sure).

Also just been confirmed that Smullen rides Rite Of Passage in the race too, wonder who RhodeJim will be going for in this? Meath AllStar, Rite Of Passage, Dunguib, Morning Supreme the first four in that order!

Loyal2TheRoyal (Meath) - Posts: 4522 - 06/03/2009 16:02:06    225926

Loyal2TheRoyal 40/1 Festival Special!

Will be posted on this thread after 6pm tomorrow evening. Runs on Tuesday and on a line of form with the favourite, should be about 2/1! If there are 3 horses better than this horse in this field, then I will be very very surprised. I give it a major squeak - that is a hint as to who the likely jockey might be!!!!

Stay tuned for more.........................You don't want to miss this.

Please Note: This is not a tip, I do not have any contact with the stable to which this horse belongs. It is purely based on the videos, interviews and figures available to me - It might not even declared - but I really hope it is.

Loyal2TheRoyal (Meath) - Posts: 4522 - 08/03/2009 16:18:58    226993

Lads how about a fictional competition as we can not get a kitty together it will have to be this way.An imaginary 50 each day to gamble as you like the poster with the most amount friday wins simple,might be a bit of crack and give someone a bit of bragging rights or just more reason to be sneered!!!!!!!

DABLACKSPOT (Westmeath) - Posts: 551 - 09/03/2009 10:57:28    227738

i like that idea.. i ll be first to put my neck on the chopping board... my 50 tomorrow will be on garde champetre.. cross country chase

AskUreSister (Westmeath) - Posts: 160 - 09/03/2009 14:17:08    227978

Good idea Dara but would need someone willing to put in a bit of time and effort to run it. How about everyone starts off with a fictional 100euro and go from there. Might not be too difficult to track if there was a limit to 3 bets a day, all in before the start of racing. Anyone willing to run it?

kobie (Offaly) - Posts: 272 - 09/03/2009 14:36:42    228011

I'll will run it if thats o.k. so long as there isn't too many entries. I'll start up a thread later this evening if I get time.

Loyal2TheRoyal (Meath) - Posts: 4522 - 09/03/2009 16:03:03    228109

I would be very wary of backing Cousin Vinny tomorrow after hearing Willie Mullins say that the horse did not travel well and did not eat up or drink. Fair play to him for saying that. The horse will be checked over tomorrow and will probably run but it wont carry my money now !!

Cavan_Slasher (Cavan) - Posts: 10253 - 09/03/2009 18:34:31    228266

The big tip is Aura About You in the 4.40 Tuesday. She is still 40/1 with some bookmakers. She's trained by Paul Nolan and ridden by Squeaky Cawley.

The main reason Quevaga is favourite is down to two things. One is hearsay, the other is her run in France behind Hurricane Fly when he beat her 2L giving her four pounds.

Aura About You was beaten 4.5L by Hurricane Fly at Fairyhouse getting only two pounds. That form makes Aura About You as good as Quevaga. Add in the fact that Aura About You would have found the race very short at Fairyhouse (they went a crawl too), Huricane Fly was probably a better horse at Fairyhouse and tomorrow Quevaga has to give her 3lbs and you have a seriously good value bet.

Loyal2TheRoyal (Meath) - Posts: 4522 - 09/03/2009 21:15:52    228474

which of the former champion hurdle winners from Ireland will fair best tomorrow I personally like to see Brave 1 Inca,Hardy2 eustice, 3 Sublimity the Irish have a very strong hand in the race 11 entries I think

williewentwell (Tyrone) - Posts: 1712 - 09/03/2009 22:36:18    228564

10/1 Alex Ferguson double Wednesday his horse RSA Chase What a friend/united to beat inter

williewentwell (Tyrone) - Posts: 1712 - 09/03/2009 23:28:53    228604

Loyal if you fancy Nolans runner you have to have a little on Give It Time who beat her 2l giving her 9lb at Leopardstown. Rain isnt in Jessies horses favour but ive backed her at 18.5 last night and at 11/1 each way (ew four places). Think Quevega will win though.

gianfranco (Offaly) - Posts: 100 - 10/03/2009 10:13:20    228805

Before Hedgehunter won the National, what did Willie say?

He didn't travel over well! Don't mind him, Cousin Vinny will be as good as when he fell at Leopardstown. And in the words of Ruby Walsh "looks fine to me". Unless he goes out past 5/1 though, I'm opposing.

I have it narrowed down to Give it Time and Aura About You Gianfranco but at the prices, I'm going for the latter. Might have a small bit of the forecast.

Loyal2TheRoyal (Meath) - Posts: 4522 - 10/03/2009 10:41:36    228847

Two up to Ireland after Two races. Of course I backed neither of them but great stuff all the same. Well done Go Native and PaddthePlasterer.
That gutted feeling was tangible from the course after the demise of coisin Vinny

mossbags (Galway) - Posts: 1089 - 10/03/2009 14:18:49    229035

mossbags
County: Galway
Posts: 718

229035
Two up to Ireland after Two races. Of course I backed neither of them but great stuff all the same. Well done Go Native and PaddthePlasterer.
That gutted feeling was tangible from the course after the demise of coisin Vinny

Ah now Mossbags, that's one for Meath and one for Kerry.

Tomás Tralee (Kerry) - Posts: 391 - 10/03/2009 14:23:32    229046

Nice one, had Forpadytheplasterer there!! Here's hoping Cailin Alainn can do the business in the next one too!

Rio Bingo (Tyrone) - Posts: 788 - 10/03/2009 14:30:43    229073

Hhahahahaha Thank you PADDY YA GOOD THING!!!! 50 yoyo's to win! I've never won on a horse before!

jimbodub (Dublin) - Posts: 20763 - 10/03/2009 14:34:00    229082

Good man Tomásin, I must take the blinkers off

mossbags (Galway) - Posts: 1089 - 10/03/2009 14:43:09    229088