Loyal2TheRoyal Supreme Novice's Hurdle Thoughts:

Well the myth that Zaarito would actually be a contender in this race has been well and truly shot to pieces now. A myth that might I add, Loyal2TheRoyal did not subscribe to. He was left trailing in Go Native's wake at Naas today - a horse who finished 10L behind the current favourite for this race, Hurricane Fly, at Christmas. A decision is expected on Wednesday was to whether or not that horse will take any part in any Cheltenham Festival race but my thoery is that he won't. Or at least, that is what the rumours are telling me.

"No horse can get him off the bridle at home and I expect he will improve for that". Those were the words on one Noel Meade in the aftermath of Go Native's victory today and I believe he will go very close to giving the Castletown trainer his third Cheltenham Festival winner.

Now onto to the other Mullins "superstar" - Cousin Vinny. 12 of the last 13 winners of this race had won their prep which is a pretty damning statistic for backers of Cousin Vinny and I suspect that after all the expectation, Mullins; best chance of a winner in this race will come from Kempes. He was a winner at Navan not long ago and is a joy to watch jumping hurdles so spring healed. I don't expect Cousin Vinny to have much of a say.

10 of the last 17 winners of this race were Irish trained so that does not bode well for our nighbours across the water. The success of Binocular in this race last year, however, does give the 4yo Torphicen a chance should he turn up here. The Henderson pair of Ainama and Mad Max hold place claims at best whilst Red Moloney is extremely soft in my opinion. I watched him loads of times at Dundalk last year lose races he should have won. Those are the main contenders but there is probably something lurking out there who will run a big race at a big price.

For now though, Kempes and Go Native are put forward with slight preference for Go Native. But if Hurricane Fly turns up and there is sufficient enough evidence to suggest that he has overcome whatever ailments have afflicted him, then he will probably be the banker of the festival.

Loyal2TheRoyal (Meath) - Posts: 4522 - 22/02/2009 19:17:40    214903

Agreed loyal, my hunch is that everything will work itself out before race day and hurricane fly will outclass them.

mossbags (Galway) - Posts: 1089 - 22/02/2009 19:42:31    214922

i still think Cousin Vinny is a good thing and would be very short if Ruby was on board. The fast pace will suit him great and he'll eat them up the hill.. hoping anyway cos i've bet him every payday since last april.
With the champion hurdle i'm taking Celestial Halo over binocular purely on Cheltenham form.
3 Certs have to be Master minded , Voy por Ustedes & Kasbah Bliss.. Buying money !

HongKongPhooey (Antrim) - Posts: 93 - 22/02/2009 20:11:51    214942

Outsiders to keep an eye on:

Merchant Paddy - seriously progressive. Looked very good in winning at Naas, while only 2m4 hcap chase, stamina was at a premium and at leopardstown showing a good turn of foot on better ground. Think he might be running in the 4m race, where his touch of class could see him sluice in.

Pennek - Pretemps Hcap Hurdle. Ran very well in trial race at Haydock I think, staying on very well after getting outpaced. King said in the post that he will where blinkers on the day and will love the big field and hill.

Massini Maguire - Hobbs team coming back into form, While his jumping was poor his last two runs, he is a huge price for RSA considering you can find holes in all the form of the fancied horses, considering he is a festival winner.

Punjabi and Jered - Both horses love good ground, will travel well in strongly run race and are great value each way in the Champion Hurdle.

gianfranco (Offaly) - Posts: 100 - 23/02/2009 14:20:08    215567

Agree about Merchant Paddy, his trainer alone though means he will be a short enough price. But he will certainly take all the beating in the 4 mile race. I seen the King interview on the RP site and Pennek was one of the horses I took from it. However, I think he will need to improve again to take this, he was 6L behind Big Bucks on New Years Day but was getting upwards on two stone. The idea that the ground will be good is a longshot, if it was, then Harchibald would be the one for me as opposed to Jered and Punjabi. But thats only my opinion. Having said that, I think Harchi is easily the horse with the most ability in the race and if things dropped right he'd win.

Loyal2TheRoyal (Meath) - Posts: 4522 - 23/02/2009 14:46:59    215608

Clerk of Course says in todays RP that they could start watering next weekend and they are hoping to have ground on the easy side of good. There wont be soft ground at Cheltenham, the land that the course is located drains very well and good dry weather is expected from now until the festival. Harchi was high class in his prime but if he couldnt win the race two years ago, I dont think he'll win it now.
Pennek wont have to meet a horse of Big Bucks calibre in the pretemps where he should get a weight of 10-7 to 10-10, he is in region of 20.0 (19/1) on betfair.
You can also get around 20.0 on Merchant paddy also, well you could yesterday.

gianfranco (Offaly) - Posts: 100 - 23/02/2009 15:14:26    215636

Any preview nights in Dublin or North East

lochgarmanabu (Wexford) - Posts: 1022 - 23/02/2009 18:49:56    215935

preview night in glencarn hotel castleblayney co. monaghan tomoro night if thats of any use to ya?

beer baron (Cavan) - Posts: 3916 - 23/02/2009 19:59:33    216015

If ground is good harcibald will give them run for there money .

Dellboypolecat (Tyrone) - Posts: 15069 - 23/02/2009 20:43:34    216053

Hurricane Fly has been my banker all along and have him in a ?2 Lucky 15 with Cooldine, Tattenan and Quinola Des Obeaux. However, heard a whisper in Fairyhouse at the weekend that he may not go, so have done another bet with Cousin Vinny, Sicilian Secret, Kauto Star and Osana. My heart wants Harchibald to win the Champion - backed him at 25/1 after Kempton, but whether he runs or not will throw a few bob on Jered as well.

HurricaneFly (Meath) - Posts: 85 - 23/02/2009 21:14:45    216093

lochgarmanabu
County: Wexford
Posts: 245


Feb 26th Roganstown golf club,Swords,Dublin.With Gary O Brien,Tony Martin,Franny Wood,Gordon Elliott,Robbie Tower
Mar 3rd Courtneys pub,Main street,Lucan,Dublin.With Tom Halpin,Jessy Harrington,Barry Geraghty,Tom Malone, Noel O Brien

conor15 (None) - Posts: 347 - 23/02/2009 21:37:00    216122

If Harchibald can hear his feet hit the ground, he will be in the first two. If my prayers are answered and the ground is fast, then I will make a Harchi victory in the CH my biggest win ever.

Loyal2TheRoyal (Meath) - Posts: 4522 - 23/02/2009 21:50:17    216136

I have watched all the Irish bumper horses in the betting (quite happy to assume the winner will be Irish trained) and the best I seen was Right of Passage yesterday. Meath AllStar is the best of Willie's. I get the feeling a lot of his aren't actually that great and the Vincent O'Brien saying " If you think you have more than one Derby winner in your yard, then you have none" could ring true. Although, there is bound to be one or two in there that will be in the shake up.

I think Hurricane Fly won't run either and am tempted to back Go Native on that assumption. If he does run, then I find it hard to see him getting beat.

Loyal2TheRoyal (Meath) - Posts: 4522 - 23/02/2009 22:14:46    216190

Have definitely got to agree with the statements about Harchibald. If the ground turns up like he wants, he will take the world of beating and is a each-way good thing. Watch out for Oscar Rebel, she is expected to go very well at a big price. Bet of the meeting for me is Kasbah Bliss. Plough in!

kobie (Offaly) - Posts: 272 - 23/02/2009 22:25:51    216232

Conor
Many thanks

lochgarmanabu (Wexford) - Posts: 1022 - 24/02/2009 11:58:32    216659

Well the myth that Zaarito would actually be a contender in this race has been well and truly shot to pieces now. A myth that might I add, Loyal2TheRoyal did not subscribe to. He was left trailing in Go Native's wake at Naas today - a horse who finished 10L behind the current favourite for this race, Hurricane Fly, at Christmas. A decision is expected on Wednesday was to whether or not that horse will take any part in any Cheltenham Festival race but my thoery is that he won't. Or at least, that is what the rumours are telling me.

Well once again, Loyal2TheRoyal is right. Hurricane Fly misses Cheltenham, I repeat, Hurricane Fly missses Cheltenham. Personally I think he would have hacked up. All abroad Go Native now for the Supreme? Cousin Vinny won't be winning either.

Loyal2TheRoyal (Meath) - Posts: 4522 - 24/02/2009 17:45:10    217160

Loyal, agree with ya re Go Native, on a line of form through Hurricane Fly he has to have a serious chance, especially if the latter doesn't run. Apart from the fact that I would be a massive fan of Noel and the Carberrys anyway, Noel did a turn for me a few years ago which I'll never forget and I've always felt a special kind of connection with the yard. So to see any of the Castletown horses win would be massive but if Harchibald was to finally get what he has always deserved it would make my year!!!

HurricaneFly (Meath) - Posts: 85 - 24/02/2009 17:53:32    217176

Yeah there's nothing like backing a horse and watch Carberry come to the last with the horse underneath him swinging on the bridle. I'd really love to see Harchi win the CH but even now with two weeks to go, its a longshot.

Its just been confirmed that Hurricane Fly will definitely miss Cheltenham by the way. Punchestown is his aim now.

Loyal2TheRoyal (Meath) - Posts: 4522 - 24/02/2009 17:57:30    217181

Couldnt rule Jered out either. Harchi runs in Dundalk Friday night

HurricaneFly (Meath) - Posts: 85 - 24/02/2009 19:01:19    217246

Really cant see Harchibald winning the Champion Hurdle. He will be doing well to finish in the first five and only then if the ground comes up good. Everything fell his way in this race in 2005 and it didnt happen for him, he is 4 years older and the field this year is far more competitive than then. Dont get me wrong, it would warm my heart to see it as he has been a much maligned horse, who isnt ungenuine but who I think gives everything on the bridle and doesnt keep a little in reserve like most horses, but sorry cant see it happening.

Ireland will be lucky to get a horse placed in this years Champion Hurdle although I am a fan of Jered especially if he gets good ground.

gianfranco (Offaly) - Posts: 100 - 25/02/2009 10:59:13    217646