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Replying To WanPintWin: "The bookies are of the same opinion as most of those people too. Mayo are decent favourites according to the latest odds and the bookies tend to take all factors into account.
Experience, consistency and reliability are big parts of people's thinking, as well as proven quality of course. We can be almost certain that Mayo will put in a solid performance as a minimum, with anything better than this not too surprising. Galway on the other hand have been liable to deliver something ranging from horrendous to very good. We just don't know what we're going to get.
Mayo's experience and record in Croke Park over the past 10 years is on a different level to Galway's.
Winning on Sunday would be one way to start redressing the balance." "Mayo are decent favorites according to the latest odds"
What ? You call a 1 point handicap decent favorites ?
I wouldn't touch either with a dime, Mayo are only slight favorites because there is more money on them.
I'd be surprised if Galway don't beat them but I wouldn't back either. No Value.
AfricanGael (UK) - Posts: 1947 - 22/07/2021 12:56:31
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Mayo smelling blood with the Dubs receding, surely they can't lose this chance. Galway may win but that will be as far as they go.
realdub (Dublin) - Posts: 8584 - 22/07/2021 13:33:44
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"I'd be surprised if Galway don't beat them"
BoyleSports have Galway at 7/4 and you don't think that's value
Jaysis!
I'd take 7/4 on a 50/50 coin toss all day long as would anyone who can count.
timmyhogan (UK) - Posts: 290 - 22/07/2021 13:40:08
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Replying To realdub: "Mayo smelling blood with the Dubs receding, surely they can't lose this chance. Galway may win but that will be as far as they go." The only thing receding in Dublin is Cormac Costello's hairline.
AfricanGael (UK) - Posts: 1947 - 22/07/2021 13:48:50
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Replying To GreenandRed: "Mayo News Connacht Final review. link"
GreenandRed (Mayo) - Posts: 7335 - 22/07/2021 13:51:51
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Replying To timmyhogan: ""I'd be surprised if Galway don't beat them"
BoyleSports have Galway at 7/4 and you don't think that's value
Jaysis!
I'd take 7/4 on a 50/50 coin toss all day long as would anyone who can count." You see that's why bookies make money, from fellas like yourself who think you can outsmart them, they'll reel you in with what you perceive as value.
Would you put 10 grand on a coin toss ?
No wonder the Irish are the third biggest losers in the world when it comes to gambling, thanks to fellas like you who THINK you can count, but the bookie always has the last laugh.
AfricanGael (UK) - Posts: 1947 - 22/07/2021 13:58:40
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Replying To timmyhogan: ""I'd be surprised if Galway don't beat them"
BoyleSports have Galway at 7/4 and you don't think that's value
Jaysis!
I'd take 7/4 on a 50/50 coin toss all day long as would anyone who can count." So you equate a game of football between two rivals as a coin toss ?
Bloody hell, I didn't realize heads and tails had such emotions or that the tail could be affected by an injury!
Forget the coin toss analogy when it comes to Gaelic football.
On one hand you say it's 50/50 but on the other you would be drawn in and influenced by 7/4, it still doesn't change the fact that it is 50/50 and that's how bookies make money, giving you the impression that you are getting value.
You're not.
AfricanGael (UK) - Posts: 1947 - 22/07/2021 14:18:22
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Replying To AfricanGael: ""Mayo are decent favorites according to the latest odds"
What ? You call a 1 point handicap decent favorites ?
I wouldn't touch either with a dime, Mayo are only slight favorites because there is more money on them.
I'd be surprised if Galway don't beat them but I wouldn't back either. No Value." Mayo are 4/6 and Galway 7/4 with most bookies. Mayo are decent favourites. 7/4 in a 2 horse race is definitely an outsider.
We definitely have chance, but you'll see most pundits picking Mayo too.
WanPintWin (Galway) - Posts: 2033 - 22/07/2021 14:21:56
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Replying To WanPintWin: " Replying To AfricanGael: ""Mayo are decent favorites according to the latest odds"
What ? You call a 1 point handicap decent favorites ?
I wouldn't touch either with a dime, Mayo are only slight favorites because there is more money on them.
I'd be surprised if Galway don't beat them but I wouldn't back either. No Value." Mayo are 4/6 and Galway 7/4 with most bookies. Mayo are decent favourites. 7/4 in a 2 horse race is definitely an outsider. We definitely have chance, but you'll see most pundits picking Mayo too."
AfricanGael (UK) - Posts: 1947 - 22/07/2021 14:28:31
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Replying To AfricanGael: " Replying To timmyhogan: ""I'd be surprised if Galway don't beat them"
BoyleSports have Galway at 7/4 and you don't think that's value
Jaysis!
I'd take 7/4 on a 50/50 coin toss all day long as would anyone who can count." So you equate a game of football between two rivals as a coin toss ? Bloody hell, I didn't realize heads and tails had such emotions or that the tail could be affected by an injury! Forget the coin toss analogy when it comes to Gaelic football. On one hand you say it's 50/50 but on the other you would be drawn in and influenced by 7/4, it still doesn't change the fact that it is 50/50 and that's how bookies make money, giving you the impression that you are getting value. You're not."
timmyhogan (UK) - Posts: 290 - 22/07/2021 14:33:04
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Replying To timmyhogan: " Replying To AfricanGael: "[quote=timmyhogan: ""I'd be surprised if Galway don't beat them"
BoyleSports have Galway at 7/4 and you don't think that's value
Jaysis!
I'd take 7/4 on a 50/50 coin toss all day long as would anyone who can count." So you equate a game of football between two rivals as a coin toss ? Bloody hell, I didn't realize heads and tails had such emotions or that the tail could be affected by an injury! Forget the coin toss analogy when it comes to Gaelic football. On one hand you say it's 50/50 but on the other you would be drawn in and influenced by 7/4, it still doesn't change the fact that it is 50/50 and that's how bookies make money, giving you the impression that you are getting value. You're not."
Show me a bookie who'll give you 50/50 on a coin toss and I'll show you a loser .
It's basic stuff but you have a problem getting your head around it.
But that's ok , AG will school you.
AfricanGael (UK) - Posts: 1947 - 22/07/2021 15:06:32
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Replying To Mayonman: "Lads, some of ye are talking about teams going man to man. No team ever does that. Some will press high at various stages but if they don't turnover the kick out they all filter back and block the channels. The only difference is the extreme they do it and how they transition the ball to attack. It is never 1 on 1.
Mayo to their credit press a lot and when they break they commit to it and break hard.
Dublin, on the rare occasions they don't have the possession get 14 behind the ball.
Kerry always defend in numbers.
I would like to see Galway full press teams but sometimes I think that is because it is an exciting way to play rather than most effective. Most effective is probably a bit of both.
The transition is crucial. Cooke&Tierney are excellent kick passers and I think we need to utilise this to break quickly when we turn the ball over.
If Shane is fully fit I think we will win. We need both Walsh & Comer playing as if one is missing it is too easy to double up on the other.
Tierney is gifted. His chip from 40 yards that came back off the crossbar against Monaghan gives a glimpse of his talent and vision. Saying that is a lot to ask in his first year to dictate play against Mayo. We all love to slag AOS but we have the height of respect for him. Hugely effective footballer. I think DO'C will be a massive loss if not playing.
Very intriguing game.
For all my musings above we need to win a high percentage of our own kick outs or the rest won't matter!" I find myself going along with everything you've said there Mayoman and all teams flood defense for sure. I think the general alternative for what I agree is only really so-called man for man is whether a full time sweeper (or even two) is deployed. Nearly every team uses a sweeper when they feel the need to have that extra body back throughout a game and neither Galway or Mayo would naturally tend to be that defensive. Galway did use one in the Connacht final last year, probably as a reaction to the league game, but with the perceived threat from Mayo not the same for Sunday (Cillian missing etc) it'll be interesting to see if PJ still deploys an extra man at the back or decides on keeping that player further out the pitch. I can't see Mayo deploying a sweeper unless forced to by a lot of early pressure, though there's little doubt that the Mayo defense will need to tighten up and increase its physicality if Mayo are to win.
Pericles (Mayo) - Posts: 2521 - 22/07/2021 15:11:26
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Replying To timmyhogan: " Replying To AfricanGael: "[quote=timmyhogan: ""I'd be surprised if Galway don't beat them"
BoyleSports have Galway at 7/4 and you don't think that's value
Jaysis!
I'd take 7/4 on a 50/50 coin toss all day long as would anyone who can count." So you equate a game of football between two rivals as a coin toss ? Bloody hell, I didn't realize heads and tails had such emotions or that the tail could be affected by an injury! Forget the coin toss analogy when it comes to Gaelic football. On one hand you say it's 50/50 but on the other you would be drawn in and influenced by 7/4, it still doesn't change the fact that it is 50/50 and that's how bookies make money, giving you the impression that you are getting value. You're not."
So cool it.
AfricanGael (UK) - Posts: 1947 - 22/07/2021 15:15:13
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If big money started piling in on Galway all of a sudden then they would become favourites.
I'm surprised people in a country with so many addicted to gambling don't understand how bookmakers operate, might explain why so many lose their shirt.
AfricanGael (UK) - Posts: 1947 - 22/07/2021 15:27:19
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Replying To AfricanGael: "If big money started piling in on Galway all of a sudden then they would become favourites.
I'm surprised people in a country with so many addicted to gambling don't understand how bookmakers operate, might explain why so many lose their shirt." And why do you think big money isn't piling in on Galway? Because the majority of people expect Mayo to win. They are decent favourites with the majority and decent favourites with the bookies as a result.
Since Galway beat Roscommon, the odds have changed very little, so the money being laid is in line with the original odds set.
Mayo are decent favourites as I said. That's pretty obvious.
WanPintWin (Galway) - Posts: 2033 - 22/07/2021 15:59:22
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I actually think I feel stupider having read some of African Gaels posts over the last few pages. My word.
1) There was a group of mayo fans behind the cameraman who constantly jeered Galway misses and frees in the u20 game. This was obviously a small number of people and has been condemned by mayo people on a number of sites. Nobody anywhere has suggested or heard galway people jeering. There didn't sound like there was a Galway fan at the game
2) If a game is truly actually 50/50, then backing the 7/4 shot in that scenario will make you money over time. This is a really basic concept to understand. Plenty of people make money and beat the bookmakers. Google the term "bookmaker account restrictions" and see why the bookmakers use them against winning punters.
3) Flutter (paddy powers owner) would've had a liability of several million on tiger roll for his grand national wins. The max liability they'd have on a Connacht final would be about 10k. They do not give one toss about the liability in a GAA game. The odds are made in the opinion of the compilers, not weight of money
PressureKick (UK) - Posts: 209 - 22/07/2021 16:13:56
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Will Shane Walsh start?
GreenandRed (Mayo) - Posts: 7335 - 22/07/2021 16:54:17
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Replying To PressureKick: "I actually think I feel stupider having read some of African Gaels posts over the last few pages. My word.
1) There was a group of mayo fans behind the cameraman who constantly jeered Galway misses and frees in the u20 game. This was obviously a small number of people and has been condemned by mayo people on a number of sites. Nobody anywhere has suggested or heard galway people jeering. There didn't sound like there was a Galway fan at the game
2) If a game is truly actually 50/50, then backing the 7/4 shot in that scenario will make you money over time. This is a really basic concept to understand. Plenty of people make money and beat the bookmakers. Google the term "bookmaker account restrictions" and see why the bookmakers use them against winning punters.
3) Flutter (paddy powers owner) would've had a liability of several million on tiger roll for his grand national wins. The max liability they'd have on a Connacht final would be about 10k. They do not give one toss about the liability in a GAA game. The odds are made in the opinion of the compilers, not weight of money" Well it's clear you are Belclare with yet another account as you are back to your nonsense regarding jeering which was actually started by Galway fans, probably the same ones who attacked Kevin Walsh.
I can just imagine you sitting at your desk setting and adjusting the odds for Paddy Power, " well Belclare how is it going, ah not bad Paddy we have only a liability of €10,000 but sure don't worry it's only Mayo v Galway " you'd be fired on the spot and rightly so.
You are extremely naive and wet behind the ears if you think that, they are in business to make money and they do it very well.
"The odds are made in the opinion of the compilers, not weight of money"
"If a game is truly actually 50/50, then backing the 7/4 shot in that scenario will make you money over time"
Two nonsensical statements, if I stuck 100 grand on Galway right now, just watch their odds plummet, we are not talking "over time" and it is not a coin toss, we are talking 70+ minutes.
But if yourself and your mate want to stick your £4 on Galway go ahead and do it, but understand you have as much chance as losing it as winning.
I can absolutely guarantee you this, Paddy Power will make money on the Galway v Mayo game regardless of the outcome and if you don't believe that then maybe you are as you say yourself stupider than you think.
AfricanGael (UK) - Posts: 1947 - 22/07/2021 17:01:56
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I wonder what the chances are of admin deciding that someone's insistence at demonstrating their superior understanding of the intricacies of gambling is surely worthy of a separate forum discussion, and taking the appropriate steps so that this conversation can stay on topic?
After the disappointment of the Monaghan game, there's some pressure on PJ and the lads to show they can deliver on the big day. Not saying it's make or break time for PJ, not by a long shot, but another lose in an important game won't bode well for him.
festinog (Galway) - Posts: 3097 - 22/07/2021 17:34:45
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Replying To AfricanGael: "Well it's clear you are Belclare with yet another account as you are back to your nonsense regarding jeering which was actually started by Galway fans, probably the same ones who attacked Kevin Walsh.
I can just imagine you sitting at your desk setting and adjusting the odds for Paddy Power, " well Belclare how is it going, ah not bad Paddy we have only a liability of €10,000 but sure don't worry it's only Mayo v Galway " you'd be fired on the spot and rightly so.
You are extremely naive and wet behind the ears if you think that, they are in business to make money and they do it very well.
"The odds are made in the opinion of the compilers, not weight of money"
"If a game is truly actually 50/50, then backing the 7/4 shot in that scenario will make you money over time"
Two nonsensical statements, if I stuck 100 grand on Galway right now, just watch their odds plummet, we are not talking "over time" and it is not a coin toss, we are talking 70+ minutes.
But if yourself and your mate want to stick your £4 on Galway go ahead and do it, but understand you have as much chance as losing it as winning.
I can absolutely guarantee you this, Paddy Power will make money on the Galway v Mayo game regardless of the outcome and if you don't believe that then maybe you are as you say yourself stupider than you think." You are actually beyond talking to. I probably shouldn't even bother.
https://www.onlinebetting.org.uk/betting-guides/how-do-bookmakers-set-odds-and-make-money.html
By the way, both the paddy power GAA traders are on twitter and have fairly active accounts. Il send on their username if you wish and you can ask them yourself? They're both grand lads and would have no issue putting a numpty in his place
PressureKick (UK) - Posts: 209 - 22/07/2021 19:27:41
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