The @GAAmbler1 https://twitter.com/TheGAAmbler1?lang=en is back after a quiet week with no championship football action taking place. We have now certainly entered the business end of the season this weekend, with the first semi-final having a different feel to it this year with the inclusion of surprise packages Tipperary. Their performances and downright bravely shown throughout the year has lit up what has been far from a vintage championship season. We look to see if they can take another scalp in the form of perennial semi-finalists Mayo.

As 1/5 favourites the westerners are certainly not worth backing, especially since they simply haven't reached the same heights previously set over the last few seasons. Despite a fine victory over a dogged and battle hardened Tyrone team two weeks ago, when looking at the line out for Sunday there are still some genuine questions around the form of Aidan O'Shea, Cillian O Connor and Jason Doherty in the forward line. With the midfield pairing of Seamus O'Shea and Donal Vaughan also not having the feel of an all-conquering pairing that can lift Sam, which is why I will be shocked if Parsons doesn't start from the get go. But one thing for sure is the westerners will not lack motivation after all they have been through over the years.

Tipperary on the other hand have a different motivation which unlike Mayo isn't born out of hurt. The motivation for this Tipperary team is to go out and show case their footballing talents at every opportunity, something which Liam Kearns must be given immense credit for. Often when a team is given the license to play freely and without fear, momentum is quickly built upon after every result. This weekend will see Tipp play some brilliant high octane confident football which will test Mayo, but ultimately this swashbuckling style should play into Mayo's hands. Tipperary haven't come up against a team who will play with the intensity in the tackle that Mayo will bring on Sunday, which is why I believe Mayo will win lots of turnovers in their forward line and middle third.

It is my view that these turnovers will result in goals and while its tempting to go with both teams to score a goal, considering Tipp have banged a monstrous 22 in 12 championship games, I believe that Mayo to score over 1.5 goals at 11/10 is a very nicely priced bet. It becomes even tastier when looking at the stats, where Mayo have scored at least two goals in four of the six games they've played this year and I would take the Tyrone game with a pinch of salt, as the ulster men were never going to concede two majors. On top of this Tipperary have been conceding goals 7 in 5 games in the championship thus far. A 4-point bet is advised here

Recommended bets: Mayo Over 1.5 goals @11/10 with Paddy Power. 4 points

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