The GAAmbler: Cross and Castlebar to serve up a classic

February 13, 2016

Castlebar Mitchels Danny Kirby celebrates.
©INPHO/Cathal Noonan.

This weekend sees the long awaited return to club action for the four remaining senior club teams chasing the dream of becoming the All-Ireland Club champions.

Joe Brolly tweeted during the week claiming that he was really looking forward to the Castlebar/Crossmaglen game, saying that it was "real football". I would firmly agree with his sentiments as this game in particular has the makings of a classic.

Having followed these two teams closely throughout their hugely impressive seasons they play a very similar brand of highly entertaining football, based on attacking kick passing.

Both sides have great inside forward lines, very physical midfielders and defences that aren't too worried with playing 2 or 3 sweepers.

Looking at the markets for the games a number of bets stick out to me.

The first one is the player scorer markets priced up by Paddy Power and it provides this week's NAP.

They have Crossmaglen midfielder and 'Ulster Club Player of the Year' Johnny Hanratty priced at 5/6 to score under 0.5 points.

Johnny wouldn't be known for his scoring prowess, he would usually be the midfielder that sits back and I believe that he will be given the arduous task of following Barry Moran around.

This should curtail the amount of chances he would have in getting himself in front of goal, if this turns out to be the case the 5/6 offered by Paddy Power is very appealing.

A second market which is in my mind very likely to be a winner is the total goals in this game to be over 1.5 total goals which is best priced at ½ with Ladbrokes.

As I mentioned in previous articles, both these sides have a serious eye for goal and brilliant goal getters in their forward line.

Castlebar have averaged over two goals a game in their championship games to date, Crossmaglen also hit the net four times in their three Ulster championship games.

This weekend's game is likely to be free flowing attacking football and I would be very surprised if both these team don't score at least one goal each.

Which leads me onto my final tip for this game, it is a long shot but I really like the look of it.

It is both teams to score a goal and Castlebar to win priced at 7/2 with Paddy Power. Although they are the underdogs, Castlebar will be full of confidence after beating Corofin.

This in my mind is essentially a 50/50 game, but I believe that Castlebar have the better spread of talent throughout the field and if they can play to their potential they might just snatch a narrow win.

My second featured game of this weekend features Antrim and Derry down in the depths of Division 2 hurling.

The bet that has really drawn my attention is a handicap bet offered by Marathon betting, who have really went out on their own and offered Antrim -4.5 points at an exceptionally generous 9/10.

There are a number of reasons why this is an exceptionally generous bet. Firstly having read the article on Hoganstand about the Derry team, it was revealed that Derry's side have lost up to 15 players from last year through retirement, injury and other reasons, including stalwarts such as Kevin and Liam Og Hinphey, and Ruairi McCloskey.

This is an incredible amount of players to have lost. Antrim on the other hand have had an influx of talent into their squad.

New Antrim manager PJ O' Mullan has brought back the talented duo of Liam Watson and Eddie McCloskey who both start tomorrow, there is a bit of buzz around Antrim hurling at the minute and the fact they competed in two warm up competitions in January means that they should be much more match sharp than Derry.

Although Antrim are missing a few players with Cushendall being in the All-Ireland final as well as a few injuries, they have named a very decent team for Sunday's game and should record a victory that exceeds 4.5 points.

I would try and get on the Handicap as soon as possible as I can't see that price or the Handicap staying like that for too long.

Recommended bets:

  • Johnny Hanratty under 0.5 points at 5/6 with Paddy Power (NAP)
  • Crossmaglen/Castlebar over 1.5 total goals at ½ with Ladbrokes
  • Both teams to score a goal and Castlebar to win at 7/2 with Paddy Power
  • Antrim -4.5 points at 9/10 with Marathon bet

Follow @TheGAAmbler1 on twitter for further tips and analysis


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