Four weeks have now passed in the championship and we have now managed to provide our followers with a nice bit of profit every week. Last week we managed to tip 2/3 winners from our preview, plus a further winner posted on our twitter page @TheGAAmbler1. This leaves us +39.35 points and an astonishing 15/17 bets as winners overall.

Looking at this week's games there is an embarrassment of games and bets to pick from, but we have decided to choose three games to focus on. The first of which is Derry against Louth with this game also providing our NAP for the weekend. The NAP here is over 2.5 total match goals at a very juicy 11/8 with Boylesports, with a 3 point bet being advised.

This is going to be an extremely high scoring game which will be littered with mistakes in my opinion. The first reason for this is that looking at both teams form this year they have been both conceding and scoring a ridiculous amount of goals throughout the league and championship. For example Derry scored 13 goals throughout the league more than any side. Louth also scored 11 goals themselves including three against Antrim in the Final.

The trend continues in the championship where Derry conceded a number of dodgy goals against Tyrone and Louth who beat minnows Carlow on a score line of 3-11 to 2-24. As well as their respective goal records there are other factors which should ensure an open game, Derry are notoriously known for their apathy shown towards the qualifiers which has seen them turned over early in the last number of years. Looking at their team they have also lost key defender and captain Chrisy McKaigue and have chosen a completely new half back line from the team which lined out against Tyrone. Changes to teams increase the likelihood of mistakes and when adding Louth's 6 day turnaround into the equation the likelihood of an open free flowing game increases further.

Our second game being previewed is tonight's game in Connacht where Galway take on Mayo in Castlebar, with the bet here being Galway under 15.5 points with a 3 point bet. If you cast your mind back to our preview where we tipped Mayo to beat London without conceding a goal, we talked about the strength of Mayo's defence. I genuinely believe that Mayo will have been working ridiculously hard on their defence all season, as it has been their Achilles heel when it comes to the business end of the season so many times.

Looking at Galway's forward line and team it doesn't inspire much fear or provide many arguments as to why this could be a close game. I think morale is very low in their camp I believe that the team won't be particularly looking forward to having another crack at Mayo, after losing their last four championship clashes over the last few years. It is for these reasons I can't see them registering a 16 point total, which is quite a generous total offered by Boylesports at 4/6.

Our Final bet being advised this weekend is quite a simple one. Tyrone are taking on Cavan tomorrow in Clones in which should be a tighter game than a lot of people are expecting. Cavan will have taken a lot more from their league final defeat than Tyrone will have, which will be key. It is for this reason I am staying clear of a match bet. Instead I believe I have found a peach of a player bet which is Seanie Johnson under 4.5 points at 8/11 with Paddy Power. He scored an impressive 7 points against Armagh including four from frees. But in the league final against Tyrone he only managed an insignificant 1 point from a free. I can't see him getting any change or easy scores from Cathal McCarron or the Tyrone defence in general, and it is also unlikely they will present him with 2 or 3 easy free kicks. A 4 point bet is advised here.

Follow @TheGAAmbler1 on twitter for further analysis and betting previews.

Recommended bets

Derry and Louth over 2.5 goals at 11/8 with Boylesports. 3 Point bet

Galway under 15.5 points at 4/6 with Boylesports. 3 point bet

Seanie Johnston under 4.5 points at 8/11 with Paddy Power. 4 point bet

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