The GAAmbler: Tyrone and Roscommon to prevail

May 21, 2016

Richie Donnelly of Tyrone and Michael Newman of Meath

A brilliant weekend of betting was had last weekend with a number of very profitable bets landing, leaving us nearly +10 points for the first weekend of championship betting.

We are looking to keep our profitable start going this weekend by previewing the Tyrone and Derry game at Celtic Park and the Roscommon and Leitrim game in Páirc Sean Mac Diarmada.

First up is a clash of two Ulster heavy weights in what should be an epic encounter. Tyrone have prevailed over Derry a staggering four times competitively already this season and Derry will undoubtedly be doing all in their power to have the last laugh.

I believe that Derry will go quite defensive against Tyrone who have racked up some big scores against them this season.

Looking at both of the teams named, both sides look to be have named exceptionally strong defences. Taking this into account the point's total of 31.5 looks very high to me.

This game will be unlike any of the other encounters so far this year and will be most likely hard hitting with plenty of physical tussles. The venue also facilitates a low scoring game as it is a tight pitch and coupled with the predicted stormy weather I believe 31.5 points will not be reached.

Therefore my choice for this week's Nap is a 3 points bet on Derry under 14.5 points at 4/5 with Paddy Power. I believe that Tyrone will get a narrow win and that Derry will be very focused on nullifying Tyrone's running game which will be detriment to their point's total.

Another bet that sticks out to me in this game is the 20/1 price with Ladbrokes on Richard Donnelly to be man of the match, especially since he kicked four points from play and received the man of the match award the last time the two teams faced. 20/1 is definitely too big here and a 0.5 points bet is advised.

The second game in focus this week sees Roscommon fresh from a massive scare in New York face another perceived "weak" team in Leitrim.

Roscommon over the last few years have been immensely difficult to read and seem to be quite mentally fragile, as they are either riding high and hammering teams playing great football, but once a result goes against them they seem to find it very difficult to recover their form.

I am taking a chance on them returning to form tomorrow and backing them to the tune of 2 points to beat the handicap against Leitrim of -7 at 11/10 with Bet Victor.

I firmly believe that their management team are more capable this year to have them mentally in the right place to face Leitrim after their scare against New York. I'm hoping that they will be incredibly focused and if they can get close to their easy season form they should dwarf the 7 point handicap.

Looking at Leitrim they had a disappointing league with only two victories albeit one of the wins was against divisional champions Louth. But having been beaten by Carlow and Waterford it's hard to provide an argument where they are going to find the quality to trouble Roscommon.

Recommended bets:

  • 3 points on Derry under 14.5 points at 4/5 with Paddy Power
     
  • 0.5 points on Richard Donnelly at 20/1 with Ladbrokes
     
  • 2 Points on Roscommon -7 at 11/10 with Bet Victor

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