The GAAmbler: club action takes centre stage

November 12, 2015

Eoin Gormley and Niall Kelly of Trillick celebrate.
©INPHO/Presseye/Andrew Payton.

With the bright summer afternoons in Croker a distant and memory, for some the real action is now under way as the county and provincial club championships take centre stage.

The hats, flags and headbands have been hurriedly replaced by beanies, coats and gloves, as supporters follow their teams around in wet, foggy and at times face numbing conditions.

Starting this week we take a look at the GAA action, as well as try and provide some valuable analysis for punters to get that edge over the bookmakers.

Scotstown (4/9 Sky bet) v Trillick (3/1 Paddy Power)
Trillick are the surprise package in the semi final stage, having been 50/1 to win the Tyrone championship before a ball was kicked, they have continually defied the odds and impressively  took another scalp in the form of 2010 Ulster finalists Glenties.

Trillick have a young team with  brothers Lee and Rory Brennen mixing well with the more established names in Matthew and Richard Donnelly in addition to 2008 All-Ireland medallist Niall Gormley.

Scotstown showed considerable resilience in beating reigning Ulster champion's Slaugtneil in the previous round, after navigating their way through Monaghan. They are an extremely physical team with star players all over the field, such as the Hughes brothers Darren and Kieran, Rory Beggan, Shane Carey and the exciting talent Conor McCarthy.

Scotstown's ability to win primary possession around the middle third along with the adaptability of the Hughes brothers will cause Trillick considerable headaches. Darren Hughes scored 1-4 in one half against Slaughtneil but it wouldn't surprise me to see him switch positions with his brother Kieran who played with number 6 on his back last day out. This would set up an exciting tussle with newly crowned all-star Matthew Donnelly.

Overall this is a step up in class for the Tyrone champions and I can't see anything other than a victory for the Monaghan side here. They have found the net in every championship game to date and I particularly like the 10/11 Paddy Power are offering on them to score the first goal.

Kilcoo (13/8 Paddy Power) V Crossmaglen (8/11 Boylesports)
From a neutrals point of view this is undoubtedly the tie of the round. The two clubs met in a controversial encounter back in 2013 which ended in a draw the first day out, and they were finally separated after extra time in the replay.

Cross will need no motivation for this game as they seek to make amends for their early exits in 2013 and 2014.

Kilcoo having secured the Down championship for the fourth time in a row this year, have yet to secure the Ulster title. The 9-time provincial champions are laced with incredible talent and experience, with players like the Kernans, Kyle Carragher and recently returned Jamie Clarke. 

Significantly Kilcoo will not fear Cross and can call upon considerable fire power themselves, especially up front in the form of Johnston brothers, Conor Laverty and Paul Devlin. This game will go down to the wire but the mobility and intensity of Kilcoo's tackling coupled with the speed of their transition from defence to attack, will just about see them over the line.

PP has already taken money on Kilcoo as reflected by their price drop from 17/10 into 13/8.  But the 11/10 PP is offering for Kilcoo +1 would seem more efficient, as it ensures the bet was a winner if there was to be a draw.

Loughinisland (8/13 Sky bet) V Doohamlet (2/1 Boylesports)
Lastly we turn our focus to the Ulster intermediate championship; it pairs two sides who have had contrasting quarter final ties. Doohamlet scraped past Ballyhaise (Cavan) after extra time thanks to an inspired performance from Colm Walshe, who operates at midfield for his club. Loughinisland beat a highly fancied and well backed Edendork side (that included Darren McCurry and Niall Morgan) away from home, as well as Greenlough (Derry) in the preliminary round.

This is very impressive considering that Tyrone and Derry intermediate teams have a very healthy track record when it comes to Ulster club intermediate level. Key to Loughinisland's success has been Dan Gordon and dual star Gareth 'Magic' Johnston. Having beaten two well drilled teams so far, they should have too much talent for a gritty but less resourced team in Doohamlet.

Recommended bets:
Loughinisland (8/13) and Scotstown (4/9) double with Sky bet (NAP)

Scotstown first goal (10/11) with Paddy Power

Kilcoo +1 (11/10) with Paddy Power

Follow @TheGAAmbler1 on twitter for further tips and analysis


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